We'll get there. Keep your eyes on the NE Pacific and up around AK.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
pcbjr
Member
Yup, absolutely ... and the Indian Ocean ...
Storm5
Member
I saw something today that said the GEFS and GFS don’t even run the same physics package yet . Lol what a S*** S***
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GEFS still runs off of the old GFS.
You would think they would have swapped it with the new programming they made into the fvs3. Doesn’t even make sense why that haven’t yet.
Government is slow.
I don't know what the panic is at all besides the fact that most just look at the models in longer range as fact without trying to figure out biases or skill or trends.
There are opportunities to score even in a progressive pattern as we seen yesterday.
The old GFS is a squishy overripe apple and the FV3 is a rotting Armadillo. Who would choose a bag of rotting armodillos over a barrel of nasty apples?
I heard it has 31 members out to 35 days now.
Golf7575
Member
I know the epo is trending positive, which isnt what we want to see, because it cancels out the ao/nao being negative. Im wondering about the mjo if and when it may be on the move and what to watch for to see if its legit in moving into phases other than the COD. I think i would possibly cry if we locked in a -epo or a locked in -ao/nao. I believe that would help imo.
Golf7575
Member
I heard the standing wave is weakening and if its true, that may help us maybe.
Jessy89
Member
If this active rainy pattern continues. Eventually it will be wintry. We got January and February to go
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LickWx
Member
Yeah, unless you live in Virginia or the mountains then your average first accumulating snowfall over last 30 years is not until January ! Nashville I think technically squeezes out a first snowfall on Dec 30 though!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
At least with the over-ripe apples you can make vinegar..... just saying.
Storm5
Member
Omgd 6th or 7th run in a row from the GFS with my Chicago snow Monday . Holy hell please be right
Well, maybe when you come back from Chicago, the snow will follow you back to give the rest of us some snow. You're in some luck, snow coming in at the right time!Omgd 6th or 7th run in a row from the GFS with my Chicago snow Monday . Holy hell please be right
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By the way, the 0z GFS is looking great for that 21st/22nd system!
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By the way, the 0z GFS is looking great for that 21st/22nd system!
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About as textbook Miller A as you can get.
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Nice snow totals. We just need more cold and more precip. Almost all of SC gets in on this run.
going to brew some December Fantasy Slider Hard Apple Cider....
Ridge to the west definitely moving in the right direction the last several runs of the American. moving west and trying to get steep ? ?
I mean since there’s nothing else to talk about. I know it’s out there, but let’s see what it do
Why can't we get this on the Euro, LOL?
GEFS regarding the storm on the 21-22nd
I find interesting that even though the GEFS trended much lower with the Snow. The pattern still looks very favorable for a Miller A storm taking verbatim.
Composites using Webb’s Maps
I find interesting that even though the GEFS trended much lower with the Snow. The pattern still looks very favorable for a Miller A storm taking verbatim.
Composites using Webb’s Maps
Lotta source region cold on the GFS.. can't complain about that, however the geo potentials shimmy..
Thank goodness the King is there to keep us in line with reality! King is putting his robe and crown on now and will be sitting in his thrown starting in less than 10. Giddy up!
is the GFS Cersei or Daenerys, I keep forgetting. ..
That’s a tough call tbh
@Arcc and company are going to love the move toward a stronger +PNA and in the general direction of the stubborn GEFS on the new EPS for 12/15-20 with the result being a colder SE 12/20-23 (below normal vs the near normal on the 12Z run) to get folks more into the Christmas spirit! Hopefully this isn't a fake gift from Santa. This change being on the well respected EPS makes it quite believable to me.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah, that pattern is a few adjustments away from being verbatim what you'd expect to see in a Miller A event. The positively tilted trough axis on the east coast would suggest a weaker storm and more progressive pattern overall >>> low more likely to scoot OTS faster vs the composite. Plenty of time for the pattern to change on the model tho.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GEFS continues to get consistently better around the solstice pattern-wise. We're throwing more cold air into the pattern w/ successive runs thanks to the stronger 50-50 low & SE Canada trough. Note the higher MSLP anomalies (in red) over the midwest & southern Canada, our surface highs are getting stronger which confirms the previous statement regarding extra cold air being fluxed into the US on later GEFS runs. We're also trending towards a stronger west-based -NAO, +PNA, & -EPO.
There's lots to like about where this period may be potentially headed.
There's lots to like about where this period may be potentially headed.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Remember when people were freaking out about this warm pattern on the EPS?
Instead, stronger cyclonic wave breaking over Atlantic Canada creates a stronger west-based -NAO and thus we're trending towards a pattern that's capable of producing a winter storm around the solstice.
Instead, stronger cyclonic wave breaking over Atlantic Canada creates a stronger west-based -NAO and thus we're trending towards a pattern that's capable of producing a winter storm around the solstice.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our pattern in week 2 is trending in a direction that resembles the GEFS cold temperature bias & thus will temporarily mask the underlying issues w/ the model of late around here.
The EPS in the 11-15 has obviously been too warm across nearly the entire CONUS.
The EPS in the 11-15 has obviously been too warm across nearly the entire CONUS.
It’s supposed to be 55 here Saturday! LOL NAM
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The GEFS seems to lack support of the 21st storm except a few members still. I do like the improving look on the EPS though. A couple more runs of the same westward trend and it'll be the same as the GEFS at H5 for the US. In fact, it's not too far off from the GEFS at all other than a weaker Aleutian high, but all the features are there and within less than 1000 miles of each other.
Consistency FTW, pattern kinda looked Miller Bish this run 
NW trend at 6z, but high is now a 1040, only 11 days to go!?
Nomanslandva
Member
I am not sure if anyone has mentioned this recently but some sites have overly simplified algorithms behind their snow (clown) maps. This is one of them. So something falling from the sky with surface temps close to freezing = snow but they don't take mid level temps into account. This does show areas that have a chance of freezing rain overnight Thursday night into Friday AM though that is likely too broad of an area too. There is a separate thread for the potential ice event.
What on earth is a west based -NAO? That must be before my time.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Meanwhile something to watch from DOC
DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the
southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS
Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs
on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave
trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday
ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even
with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately
unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley
on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical
shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and
supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe
thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South
into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold
front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce
severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in
subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent.
DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance remains in relatively good agreement that a
shortwave trough will move from the Great Basin into the
southern/central Plains on D4/Sunday, continuing through the mid MS
Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes on D5/Monday. Guidance differs
on the location of the surface low associated with this shortwave
trough, with current forecasts of its position at 12Z D5/Monday
ranging from the KS/OK/MO border intersection to central TX. Even
with these differences, consensus is good for a moist and moderately
unstable environment from the Lower MS Valley through the TN Valley
on D5/Monday ahead of the approaching shortwave. Strong vertical
shear will extend across this region, supporting long hodographs and
supercell wind profiles. Consequently, there is a threat for severe
thunderstorms D5/Monday afternoon and evening from the Mid-South
into the Lower OH Valley as the shortwave trough and associated cold
front move through. Forecast confidence is high enough to introduce
severe probabilities. Refinements to this area are likely in
subsequent forecast as mesoscale details become more apparent.