Yes that is correct. But I remember the ensembles looking way better many times last year and nothing happened. But a new year and different storm.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes a nice, fresh injection of arctic air.
Storm5
Member
This will work for Nc
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
nice 1038 CAD, 39/40 degrees at peak "heating" during the day with a storm approaching, its looking like its gonna be at night on this run which would only help, especially CAD areas
This looks like a NC special this round
better than the last run
need something to keep that high pressure a little bit longer, its rushing out of here now, still solid run regardless
Storm5
Member
What a great low track
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
Agreed. At least the track of the low is pretty classic for SE storms.
Somehow I jackpot this run
You gotta love that LP placement for NC tho
You gotta love that LP placement for NC tho
Storm5
Member
This run was much warmer for areas outside of NC vs yesterdays 12z run
The pac goes to hell on the Euro and cold air supply shuts off. Still a 1040HP in that spot you would think it would be a major ice storm but it's confined on the Euro to 85 west in NC. You had the pac on the GEFS with the Euro southern low track you would have something special.
So many things that are allllllllmost right for this. At least we've got somewhat more of a signal for something now
Still if you take a blend of both models.. CAD areas should actually start to pay more attention.
Personally I think the Op Euro is wrong for eroding the pac ridge as we've seen that before. But the GEFS is unbelievably cold...which we've all seen many many times.
But much colder than last night 00z run ... it’s a back and forth we have to analyze the general pattern if it supports winter weather or not
The second system may end up really nice as we get closer.
The Euro will be shot after shot with systems sliding down that massive western ridge. That 588+dm ridge likely will not be going anywhere quickly.
The Euro will be shot after shot with systems sliding down that massive western ridge. That 588+dm ridge likely will not be going anywhere quickly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro ensemble is trending heavily in our favor for a winter storm next week w/ increasing stream separation over the western US around day 4.
packfan98
Moderator
That looks great! Is there any way to keep our high pressure from escaping so quickly? Looks like the NAO will not be any help. No 50/50 either. I guess all comes down to perfect timing? That is so often the case.