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Pattern The Great December Dump

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Yeah I’m 90% sure the one that spins for a day or two and kicks in the first 100 hours of the 12z GFS was once there for 2 weeks straight earlier last week
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They are tricky to predict but they always rear their ugly head at some point .. could end up being the wildcard that saves us from too much warmth and even be what brings us the goods
 
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At least we have something in fantasy range


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Sorry but this is just pathetic that Denver will go snowless in December for the first time in 113 years. At least most of the nation is with us when it’s usually just the s/e. 2A91EDD4-DAB9-4D6B-B491-1D9B8EEA59B6.jpeg
 
CADEffect said:
In this case it does....


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No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
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I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
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Tropospheric temperatures have risen due to greenhouse gases selectively absorbing and re-emitting outgoing IR towards the surface. The consequent cooling in the stratosphere is a signature of tropospheric greenhouse gases blocking outgoing long wave IR (heat) from reaching the stratosphere (thereby cooling it) (this is also more formally known as the “blocking effect”), there’s also a significant contribution from anthropogenic CFCs and HCFCs that destroy ozone & hence cool the stratosphere
 
Webberweather53 said:
No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
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I’m not arguing the facts. I find it mere coincidental every time we have warmer tropopause heights the cold air moves over to the cooler side.


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CADEffect said:
I’m not arguing the facts. I find it mere coincidental every time we have warmer tropopause heights the cold air moves over to the cooler side.


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For one thing, there’s a massive difference in impacts from warm tropopause heights and a warm low-middle stratosphere and these temperature anomalies are often a reflection tropospheric wave activity rather than a forcing in the traditional sense
 
I know it's the crazy morning run but gfs was close next week I'll be in Gatlinburg so book it! Its guna happen!
 
Upgraded to slight. If we get any breaks in the clouds and the sun comes out it could get real interesting
 

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some damaging wind gusts/QLCS spin up tornadoes are possible, altho this is not impressive, and forcing is linear which mutes the tornado threat quite a bit, thermodynamics/low level instability and llvl lapse rates ain’t impressive, but SRH is definitely up there so like I said QLCS spinups is definitely possible
 
It is cold someplace. In fact, it's plenty of cold in many places. Just not here in this neck of the woods. If fortunes were reversed, a lot of other folks would be bemoaning the warmth. It's just a matter of wind and pattern. Nothing more and nothing less.
 
Dec 2019 ended up 6.6 AN temps for Chattanooga.. 9 years running now with AN Decembers. 2010 was the last time below normal. Truly weird actually.
 
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