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Pattern The Great December Dump

Shawn said:
Thankfully, we are our own individual people and if you want an ice storm and no power for a week+ you can have it. I personally would not want that as a weather enthusiast or even as a pro met.
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I understand that, and we all have our own opinions.
 
Golf7575 said:
Webber, that's a decent hp over the lakes at 1041mb. I'm suprised the euro isn't showing hardly any winter weather with that 1041mb. I guess i was told the wrong information about when the IOD is positive like it is, that it allows the mjo to focus in the colder more niño phases of 8-2, which hasn't happened yet. I think ive mentioned about the nao/ao being positive, which isnt good imo. The AAM has been negative, which is a disconnect between the ocean and the atmosphere. I'm cautiously optimistic that will turn positive and perhaps that would help some because i dont think we want a trough out west this winter.
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Good question. Probably be good to use the @ sign when you want to tag @Webberweather53 He may miss the post if you don't.
 
In my opinion, I think this will be a minor sleet >> minor/moderate zr >> to rain changeover for most areas, gefs shows this scenario well, and it’s something in between the GFS/euro, more exactly like something in between, once we get into shorter range, than we can start focusing on smaller scale/mesoscale things that may affect the outcome, like whether there’s a fronto band that may dynamically cool the column at first and cause things to overperform, or dry air causes Virga and causes things to underperform, WBZ temps, dry layers above the surface, that good stuff, but we still don’t even know the placement and how strong that shortwave will even be
 
This post isn’t geared to anyone. I just think with this being the first possible widespread event outside of the mtns, some wanted answers too quickly. Then some were asking (perhaps foolishly) on ptype, amounts, forecast cutoff lines, north-west trends or denial there of, TOO many days in advanced. There is still a lot of time left to track this and some are already frustrated perhaps from getting their hopes up by one individual or entity through social media or such as. With that being said, I don’t expect a model (say the euro) to do a complete 360 at this range. It’s been changing some and I expect it will continue to do so until a compromise it met with the gfs. It’s possible a few different waves could be responsible for ice then cold rain for many.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
In my opinion, I think this will be a minor sleet >> minor/moderate zr >> to rain changeover for most areas, gefs shows this scenario well, and it’s something in between the GFS/euro, more exactly like something in between, once we get into shorter range, than we can start focusing on smaller scale/mesoscale things that may affect the outcome, like whether there’s a fronto band that may dynamically cool the column at first and cause things to overperform, or dry air causes Virga and causes things to underperform, WBZ temps, dry layers above the surface, that good stuff, but we still don’t even know the placement and how strong that shortwave will even be
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Great to hear that! I’ve been telling myself that GFS will cave. Though I’m not going to be comfortable until the separation seems more promising.


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BirdManDoomW said:
This post isn’t geared to anyone. I just think with this being the first possible widespread event outside of the mtns, some wanted answers too quickly. Then some were asking (perhaps foolishly) on ptype, amounts, forecast cutoff lines, north-west trends or denial there of, TOO many days in advanced. There is still a lot of time left to track this and some are already frustrated perhaps from getting their hopes up by one individual or entity through social media or such as. With that being said, I don’t expect a model (say the euro) to do a complete 360 at this range. It’s been changing some and I expect it will continue to do so until a compromise it met with the gfs. It’s possible a few different waves could be responsible for ice then cold rain for many.
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180
 
Ollie Williams said:
Great to hear that! I’ve been telling myself that GFS will cave. Though I’m not going to be comfortable until the separation seems more promising.


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Yeah, the GFS is likely wayyy to wintry basically showing a all out wintry mess, cold bias doesn’t help
 
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