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Pattern The Great December Dump

Yeah I’m 90% sure the one that spins for a day or two and kicks in the first 100 hours of the 12z GFS was once there for 2 weeks straight earlier last week
They are tricky to predict but they always rear their ugly head at some point .. could end up being the wildcard that saves us from too much warmth and even be what brings us the goods
 
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At least we have something in fantasy range


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Sorry but this is just pathetic that Denver will go snowless in December for the first time in 113 years. At least most of the nation is with us when it’s usually just the s/e. 2A91EDD4-DAB9-4D6B-B491-1D9B8EEA59B6.jpeg
 
In this case it does....


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No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.
 
No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.

I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
 
I know this I more related to “GW” but is this why stratospheric temps have cooled while tropospheric temps have rose on average ?
Tropospheric temperatures have risen due to greenhouse gases selectively absorbing and re-emitting outgoing IR towards the surface. The consequent cooling in the stratosphere is a signature of tropospheric greenhouse gases blocking outgoing long wave IR (heat) from reaching the stratosphere (thereby cooling it) (this is also more formally known as the “blocking effect”), there’s also a significant contribution from anthropogenic CFCs and HCFCs that destroy ozone & hence cool the stratosphere
 
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