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Pattern The Great December Dump

Nick_boynton_ said:
I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
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Really that look at 216hrs isn’t far from becoming good in the following time. If that ridge northwest of AK would retrograde toward the pole and force the PV south along with a stronger low near the Aleutians, it could become a really good look.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right now
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EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

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Nomanslandva said:
EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

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Flip to the control and flip to the 3rd, then look. There's only snow in the mountains but still there's at least something.
 
Nomanslandva said:
EURO and EPS both had snow for this current system as well. I honestly can't remember who had it last but all globals had it inside of 240. What's really sad it there in no snow within 500 miles on the EURO at the end of the run. Not even Snowshoe WV. Prime climo and poop.

View attachment 28873
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Reason why I said that was because the gefs had a small but non negligible snow mean in the mountains/foothills/western piedmont and still had it while everything else was mostly showing all rain, it was on a island for about 4 runs
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Reason why I said that was because the gefs had a small but non negligible snow mean in the mountains/foothills/western piedmont and still had it while everything else was mostly showing all rain, it was on a island for about 4 runs
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Yea, I was getting hopeful when the EPS had about 40% of members with something close but quit looking when it lost it.
 
North trend starts now lol
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Jessy89 said:
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That’s quite a snow storm in Florida out of all places.


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If it wasn't obvious how bad this model is before, then this just proves it. Gives northern Florida more snow than I've had in the last 4 years combined, LOL. This model is a total embarrassment to the weather community.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I would absolutely love to see a snowstorm slam FL and the GA coast even if it meant everyone else missed out. Phil and Larry deserve it.
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You are far too kind ... but frankly, I'd rather see one from Dallas to just a good bit tad south of Ocala (just to make sure) all the way to Roanoke Rapids ... for everyone ... but ... and I can't speak for Larry ... but ... I'll take whatever God gifts me, this winter , and next, and the ones after that ... (and Larry likely would agree with me on that one) ... ;)
 
GEFS still supports something funny happening around the New Years .. hopefully we can squeeze something out there if the stars align
 
Bham 99 said:
That's just weird to look at you don't see that very often. I like it.
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Yeah, even this kind of thing (a modeled deep SE/coastal snowstorm) isn't seen too often. Usually no more than a couple of times a winter at most even on the drunk GFS. But to see it modeled blizzardlike like this with this very strong low winding up? You can go years in between something like this just being modeled just once.

How often has something like this actually occurred (deep SE/coastal near blizzard) including N FL? It would be a once a multidecadal type storm or even rarer than that. It does kind of look like a more wound up version of 1989. Looking at history for windy, blizzardlike storms with several inch+ accumulations way down in the deep SE/coast including N FL, 12/1989, 2/1899, and 1/1800 are the ones that first come to mind. The great 1/1922 and 2/1914 ZR/IP storms were NOT this wound up (unless I'm remembering the maps wrong) and they didn't quite reach into JAX/GNV. 2/1973 did give JAX a little bit but it wasn't this wound up.

Edit: 1/2018 wasn't this wound up and only barely gave JAX/GNV a little ZR I think.

Edited for correction: 2/1914 and 1/1922 were NOT this wound up per my memory of looking at old maps
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, even this kind of thing (a modeled deep SE/coastal snowstorm) isn't seen too often. Usually no more than a couple of times a winter at most even on the drunk GFS. But to see it modeled blizzardlike like this with this very strong low winding up? You can go years in between something like this just being modeled just once.

How often has something like this actually occurred (deep SE/coastal near blizzard) including N FL? It would be a once a multidecadal type storm or even rarer than that. It does kind of look like a more wound up version of 1989. Looking at history for windy, blizzardlike storms with several inch+ accumulations way down in the deep SE/coast including N FL, 1989, 1899, and 1800 are the ones that first come to mind. The great 1/1922 and 2/1914 ZR/IP storms were NOT this wound up (unless I'm remembering the maps wrong) and they didn't quite reach into JAX/GNV. 2/1973 did give JAX a little bit but it wasn't this wound up.
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It would be fun to track. Thats for sure. I love historic storms.
 
SD said:
Hmmm 12k nam going with mid 40s Christmas day...its a bold strategy cotton
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It's been doing that for the last couple of days. Probably just on crack. It's a good 10 degrees colder than most other models. But other models have cooled somewhat (3-5 degrees) the past few runs.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
RNK, don't buy it, They going low 60s here Christmas day! Hope there're wrong.
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GFS and Euro both showing low 50's tomorrow now and both NAM's upper 40's to low 50's. Might feel like Christmas after all around here tomorrow. Thank the good Lord for backdoor cold fronts

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IF, and it's a big if I know, but if the NAM is right the torch will be delayed another day....up this way anyhow

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GFS likes the idea of CAD as well, although it's not as cold in North Carolina.

Just checked last night's EURO and it...actually agrees. So, a CAD event might save some of us and give us an "average temps" Christmas.
 
metwannabe said:
The NAM is not backing down on temps tomorrow, some clouds a N/NE breeze... maybe
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Yeah, it looks like folks that get under some clouds will be the coolest. RAH now acknowledging this:

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1023 AM Tuesday... Synoptic scale ridging and associated subsidence will overspread the region from the west as the deep layer cyclone off the SE US coast continues to move offshore, away from the region. Resultant wall- wall sunshine will result in mild temps today, ranging from upper 50s across the NE to lower/mid 60s SW. Lingering pressure gradient will result in some occasional NE gusts into the 15 to 20 mph range from late morning and into the afternoon. A weak, dry back-door cold front across north VA/DC will settle south into the area late this afternoon/this evening. The NAM continues to suggest that the reinforced NELY low-level flow behind the front will support the development of an area of stratus/low clouds from the Chesapeake Bay region swwd across the NC Coastal Plain, mainly along and east of I-95. Otherwise, other than some fleeting thin cirrus spilling across the area, skies will be mostly clear. The renewed cP surface ridging will otherwise yield low temperatures mostly in the lwr to mid 30s. &&
 
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