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Pattern The Great December Dump

Webberweather53 said:
Gonna be in Iowa for Christmas this year, average high this time of year up here is 30F, will be roughly 55F instead, so it’s basically like I never left NC at all. Also a chance of snow this weekend, I hope it happens because it’s probably the only snow I’ll see this season.

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The weekend system looks legit . Enjoy it , I’ll be in Des Moines / Johnston Iowa the 31st -5th . I’m sure it will be mid 50s with sun by then


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The new norm .....
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Sorry very IMBY post but....

I currently sit at -2 BN for December, curious if this stretch of warmth coming up will be enough to get me AN, gonna be close (Btw all this cancel winter talk and temps certainly aren't horrible at the end of EPS)

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metwannabe said:
Sorry very IMBY post but....

I currently sit at -2 BN for December, curious if this stretch of warmth coming up will be enough to get me AN, gonna be close (Btw all this cancel winter talk and temps certainly aren't horrible at the end of EPS)

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I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

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Webberweather53 said:
I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

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I'm -.8 imby, RDU is +.6 on the cf6 but the color scale on that map is like 1.5-2...ah the map is in C I guess

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SD said:
I'm -.8 imby, RDU is +.6 on the cf6 but the color scale on that map is like 1.5-2...ah the map is in C I guess

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This is also accounting for the warm up over the next week which is liable to send most of us to solidly above territory board wide
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah makes sense... I know not to use this map again, which obviously will look much different after next weeks warmth.

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Nothing wrong with this map it’s just that it uses a much warmer climatology than most commonly used 1981-2010 baseline. Shifting that base period to 1987-2016 and including those 6 warm-very warm Decembers from 2011-16 and excluding those in the 80s does in fact make that much of a difference in the perceived anomaly. I personally think the weatherbell one is a more accurate representation of the current base state because we’ve already become significantly warmer than 1981-2010, at least in December anyway.

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Webberweather53 said:
Nothing wrong with this map it’s just that it uses a much warmer climatology than most commonly used 1981-2010 baseline. Shifting that base period to 1987-2016 and including those 6 warm-very warm Decembers from 2011-16 and excluding those in the 80s does in fact make that much of a difference in the perceived anomaly. I personally think the weatherbell one is a more accurate representation of the current base state because we’ve already become significantly warmer than 1981-2010, at least in December anyway.

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At least we get to move to the 1991-2020 climatological base period soon, so our departures won’t look as bad in a couple years when compared to the warmer “normal”. :cool:
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Couple wiggles here and there and game on for Philadelphia View attachment 28849
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We’ve got a slight chance with that setup if we can thread the needle. I’m all-in until there’s nothing on 18z.

Hasn’t the GFS/GEFS been hinting at that being a possibility in that time period?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

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Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
 
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Ok ladies and gents, I've moved a few post to whamby and the GW thread, please keep banter in banter and GW in GW, etc... it's been mentioned before just quote it and go over to that thread and insert the quote, it's really simple. Thank you
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
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His map is the combo of actual month to date and forecast for the rest of the month.
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
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It’s actual temps plus GFS forecast from initialization thru day 7, which isn’t terrible on average and takes us thru the rest of the month
 
The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
 
I believe the pattern continues to support snow west of the blue ridge (Louisiana-Tennessee) but less to none in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a winter storm pop up in the extended for places like Mississippi/Alabama.
 
12Z Euro qpf for above mentioned rainstorm: pretty impressive yet again!
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GaWx said:
The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
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Cut off upper lows are generally favored during +EPO/-TNH, the modoki El Niño that’s developing as we speak is helping in this regard. +EPO/-TNH are usually starved of cold air and rely on either preceding air masses or near the shoulder of the winter season when the wavelengths are short (mid Feb thru Mar) may be accompanied by significant cP air masses (relative to climo at that time of the year of course)
 
I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
 
ForsythSnow said:
Hmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.
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What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right now
 
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