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Pattern The Great December Dump

Couple wiggles here and there and game on for Philadelphia View attachment 28849
We’ve got a slight chance with that setup if we can thread the needle. I’m all-in until there’s nothing on 18z.

Hasn’t the GFS/GEFS been hinting at that being a possibility in that time period?
 
I have very serious doubts that your area is below normal this December especially by 2 degrees. No reliable reporting stations on the eastern seaboard are showing significantly below normal temps until you get to around NYC. In any case, this is what the temps look like thru the end of December for most of the US.

Not even close to normal anywhere in the SE US

View attachment 28837

Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
 
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Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .

His map is the combo of actual month to date and forecast for the rest of the month.
 
Webber, your statement might be correct, but your map appears to be a comparison of the GFS forecast to the actual temps. this doesn't seem to be the actual temperature anomaly .
It’s actual temps plus GFS forecast from initialization thru day 7, which isn’t terrible on average and takes us thru the rest of the month
 
Hmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_306.png
 
The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
 
I believe the pattern continues to support snow west of the blue ridge (Louisiana-Tennessee) but less to none in the Carolinas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a winter storm pop up in the extended for places like Mississippi/Alabama.
 
12Z Euro qpf for above mentioned rainstorm: pretty impressive yet again!
1577126906941.png
 
The 12Z Euro has still another very wet rainstorm including upper low (though not quite to the degree of the current one overall ) for the SE US 12/29-31!
Cut off upper lows are generally favored during +EPO/-TNH, the modoki El Niño that’s developing as we speak is helping in this regard. +EPO/-TNH are usually starved of cold air and rely on either preceding air masses or near the shoulder of the winter season when the wavelengths are short (mid Feb thru Mar) may be accompanied by significant cP air masses (relative to climo at that time of the year of course)
 
I think the euro is also hunting at other things near the end of its run.. clearly more ridging near Alaska and that PV is way further east than previous runs
 
Hmmmmm... Yeah it's out there but the GEFS has ok support for that range. I'd look more at the EPS when it comes out in a couple of hours.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_306.png
What makes me skeptical of this is how snow happy the gefs was with the current system on the long/medium range, and slowly caved to the EPS, EPS sorta won with this system we’re dealing with in the southeast right now
 
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