• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

Storm5 said:
I’m starting to think we should do away with them all together and just wake up everyday and look out the damn window and be surprised


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

4cdac774ccca05a49afb745064ee2c6e.jpg




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
 
GaWx said:
Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
Click to expand...

Looks like Fab February to me . That or last year repeat. I can hear the nervousness in his words.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
Hot off the press from Cosgrove:

"There are a few points that I have to stress about the longer term forecast, now that we are officially into calendar winter. One is the status of ENSO, which is quite neutral and NOT the El Nino that some have been talking about. Another sea surface temperature anomaly issue is the famed "warm bubble" over the Gulf of Alaska. This feature continues to fade, and cannot be ruled as a viable indicator of how weather patterns may turn out during the next three months. Lastly, and most importantly, is the concept of high-latitude blocking signatures. As of yet, there are NONE popping up in Alaska, Greenland, or whatever location that triggers association with intense cold pouring down into the U.S.

But all of that aside, the general 500MB longwave configuration may ultimately make lots of snow lovers happy between the Continental Divide and the Appalachian Mountains. Following the model depictions of the CFS, ECMWF and GFS series from December 21, the favored "progressive yet amplified" jet stream scenario is back in a big way for the 11 - 15 and 16 - 20 day periods. The storm track may get suppressed somewhat, through Texas and the Old South before recurving through the Piedmont into New England. Colder than normal air will gain a foothold over the western two-thirds of the country, while the eastern portion of the U.S. maintains a "normal to warm" character as the mean storm track stays mostly inland. In this manner polar values (probably not Arctic) will come in only after precipitation ceases.

This is the probable scenario through the middle of January. I am leery of going too cold, since the 10MB polar vortex set-up for Arctic regimes seems aimed at Eurasia and not North America. There are no signs of the motherlode setting up over southern Canada at 500MB, which is always the case when you have outbreaks of extreme cold in the lower 48 states. But the trough complex will be full-latitude, mostly neutral orientation. I like the European model weeklies with its "washed out cold" look between January 1 and 23 covering much of the nation. In terms of snowfall potential (again keeping in mind the active storm track....), this looks like a superb set-up for the Great Plains, Midwest and Great Lakes to see important snow (and some ice as well). The Rocky Mountain ski resorts should also do well as disturbances move into teh trough and set up cases of upslope flow or moisture advection from the western Gulf of Mexico.

Winter will get here, folks, just give it time. But the Interstate 95 cities will probably have to wait a little longer."
Click to expand...
biting my tongue and not touching a keyboard on that ...
 
NoSnowATL said:
Looks like Fab February to me . That or last year repeat. I can hear the nervousness in his words.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

The good news is that it is only 12/22 and we could still have a very Fab Jan despite today's bad trends. The models have been jumpy. So, why should we place that much importance on today's bad trends after the last two days of good trends?
 
It can sure look a whole lot worse than this cold map for 12/31:

1577053769696.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We finally get high pressure in a favorable position and still get crapped on with a mega cutter..we can’t buy a fantasy storm View attachment 28802
Click to expand...
Cutters can actually be good, because they bring the cold in behind the fronts. And sometimes a trailing system can develop on the tail end of the boundary from a cutting storm while cold air is in place.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
WxWatch said:
Cutters can actually be good, because they bring the cold in behind the fronts. And sometimes a trailing system can develop on the tail end of the boundary from a cutting storm while cold air is in place.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

That doesn't happen very often and usually when a new storm forms off a boundary, the trough has already lifted outta here.
 
WxWatch said:
Cutters can actually be good, because they bring the cold in behind the fronts. And sometimes a trailing system can develop on the tail end of the boundary from a cutting storm while cold air is in place.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Nothing good about cutters! Except can score Ice Storm in CAD areas sometimes.
 
Last edited:
There could be a possible winter storm by the New Year or a few days before. Right now, models don't show any winter storm developing during that time. However, we'll need to watch this positive tilt trough on the tail end of the cutting system that cuts during the 27th - 29th time window. If a storm system does develop on the tail end, it would put the impact window between the 30th/31st or New Years Day. Right now, confidence is low for anything to develop on the tail end of the boundary, but the possibility is there. We'll see how this evolves over the coming days.
gfs_z500_vort_us_27.png

gfs_z500a_us_29.png I'd like to see more separation with this though, but not too much. If no separation, the S/W would shear out and nothing would develop on the tail end of the cutting system. If something is going to happen with this, we should start to see it on the models anytime now. This time window isn't too far out, plenty of time to watch this.
 
WxWatch said:
There could be a possible winter storm by the New Year or a few days before. Right now, models don't show any winter storm developing during that time. However, we'll need to watch this positive tilt trough on the tail end of the cutting system that cuts during the 27th - 29th time window. If a storm system does develop on the tail end, it would put the impact window between the 30th/31st or New Years Day. Right now, confidence is low for anything to develop on the tail end of the boundary, but the possibility is there. We'll see how this evolves over the coming days.
View attachment 28815

View attachment 28816 I'd like to see more separation with this though, but not too much. If no separation, the S/W would shear out and nothing would develop on the tail end of the cutting system. If something is going to happen with this, we should start to see it on the models anytime now. This time window isn't too far out, plenty of time to watch this.
Click to expand...
looks way to warm at the moment for winter storm to develop ... I see a big cutter around new years time frame
 
Last edited:
tennessee storm said:
looks way to warm do the moment for winter storm to develop ... I see a big cutter around new years time frame
Click to expand...
Yes, the storm during the 27th - 29th will likely cut. What I'm saying is, a low pressure may develop on the tail end of that cutting system. If so, the low would probably not cut due to a PV anomaly pushing southeast during the 30th behind the system that cuts. So, there will likely not be a eastern ridge during the last few days of this month into the New Year. It could just be cold and dry, or there could be a system that sneaks in during the colder time window, during the last few days of this month or by the New Year. I don't want to speculate on it too much right now because it may not turn out to be anything. Just watching it for now.
 
Last edited:
Webberweather53 said:
Gonna be in Iowa for Christmas this year, average high this time of year up here is 30F, will be roughly 55F instead, so it’s basically like I never left NC at all. Also a chance of snow this weekend, I hope it happens because it’s probably the only snow I’ll see this season.

View attachment 28832
Click to expand...
Wow. Unreal
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top