Pattern The Great December Dump

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

This GFS run is actually better, better if you like ice, for areas down in the Chapel Hill Raleigh area. Quite a bit of ice.

 

[FallsLake]

Good run for the RDU folks. Looks more like a sleet storm right now. But still many more runs to determine the details (for good or bad).

 

[Tarheel1]

You can see why it’s warmer for places further south. #SER

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More NW and temps are borderline! Cold bias, FTL

 

[Metwannabe]

This GFS run is actually better, better if you like ice, for areas down in the Chapel Hill Raleigh area. Quite a bit of ice.

Understatement... Lol

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[Forevertothee]

You can see why it’s warmer for places further south. #SER

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Understatement... Lol

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Yikes! Interestingly when the system pulls away there’s still some leftover moisture slung back inland.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

View attachment 27405View attachment 27404



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Beautiful ... please have ensemble support??

 

[Tarheel1]

Back to back rainstorms! Fun

 

[Jessy89]

For South Carolina And Georgia it’s almost game over


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[Storm5]

Back to back rainstorms! FunView attachment 27406

Yeah that second one is a beast


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[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

For South Carolina And Georgia it’s almost game over


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When was it ever game on? The GFS was all alone to start with. Next.

 

[wxdaniel]

For South Carolina And Georgia it’s almost game over


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What do you see that led to this assumption?


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[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Back to back rainstorms! FunView attachment 27406

Birdman and Wilkes north gets a solid thrashing. Hard to be mad at that outcome..

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

At this point it’s looking like one of those Landrum mountainous regions and points north events. Where you look at the radar and see green over your house but NC is getting pounded. Can’t wait for this one. Friday can’t get here soon enough

 

[NoSnowATL]

What do you see that led to this assumption?


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Nothing is screaming winter storm for the Deep South.


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[RainlessSnowless & Grumpy]

At this point it’s looking like one of those Landrum mountainous regions and points north events. Where you look at the radar and see green over your house but NC is getting pounded. Can’t wait for this one. Friday can’t get here soon enough

Don't worry they're screwed too and just don't know it yet. When it's the GFS against the world what could go wrong for them?

 

[accu35]

It only takes some minor changes to see this explode. It only takes few more degrees and GA could be in play much better.

 

[Webberweather53]

In spite of the apparent volatility in the models the past few days and multitude of “trends”, the threat of an ice storm over CAD favored regions of the Carolinas (esp NC) isn’t going away. The next 24-36 hours will be critical as the models will finally have RAOB sampling of this shortwave by tomorrow night. My prior experience says these shortwaves trend stronger in the short range which supports the idea of a winter storm late next week. I mentioned earlier that the chances of an ice storm were 15-20% at best based on what I was seeing this afternoon, those odds will increase substantially if we follow historical precedence regarding short-range trends with this s/w.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What drought?

 

[Ethan80963]

It only takes some minor changes to see this explode. It only takes few more degrees and GA could be in play much better.

Agreed if that hp would have moved instead of meandering in the same area this could have been a better run