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Pattern The Great December Dump

SD said:
Thanks. Right off hand I would assume y axis is height in mbar x is wind with the right being east left being west in m/s

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That's pretty much what I said, I just mentioned that this was called a Radiosonde and the QBO is between 10-40mb. I'll add post an explanation into the scientific research thread that was made the other day.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Reason for concern?
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Why do you think there may be reason for concern?

My prediction is that the MJO will end up somewhere between the GEFS and EPS since GEFS tends to have too high an amp in 6-7 and not progressive enough whereas EPS tends to do the opposite. Note that GEFS amp has come down and the EPS is now trying to come out of the COD.

I doubt it goes backward from phase 7 to phase 6 like the GEFS has. I think that is likely due to bias because that rarely happens. Even if it does, it would be temporary and would soon afterward go back toward the colder phases in all likelihood.

I think these two models are telling us we're likely headed for low amp (likely a little outside the COD at least at first) in the general direction of the cold phases 7-8-1 for early Jan. This is about as good a look as any from my perspective of wanting it cold in the SE because low amp has generally been colder in January than high amp. So, if the SE stays warm dominated in the first half of January, it wouldn't be due to the MJO, itself, imo. Hopefully it won't and the model consensus is telling us it won't.
 
GaWx said:
Why do you think there may be reason for concern?

My prediction is that the MJO will end up somewhere between the GEFS and EPS since GEFS tends to have too high an amp in 6-7 and not progressive enough whereas EPS tends to do the opposite. Note that GEFS amp has come down and the EPS is now trying to come out of the COD.

I doubt it goes backward from phase 7 to phase 6 like the GEFS has. I think that is likely due to bias because that rarely happens. Even if it does, it would be temporary and would soon afterward go back toward the colder phases in all likelihood.

I think these two models are telling us we're likely headed for low amp (likely a little outside the COD at least at first) in the general direction of the cold phases 7-8-1 for early Jan. This is about as good a look as any from my perspective of wanting it cold in the SE because low amp has generally been colder in January than high amp. So, if the SE stays warm dominated in the first half of January, it wouldn't be due to the MJO, itself, imo. Hopefully it won't and the model consensus is telling us it won't.
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The key I think you’re mentioning is that the MJO is staying in a low amplitude. I seem to remember much of the problem we were seeing last winter was the MJO was so amped up that it ended dominating the pattern even when other indices were looking decent.
 
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More snow in the GOMEX than in RDU on member 18? There's a run for you Phil. Still nice to see this many members with snow The EPS seems to be a little less excited and more Upper South oriented such as TN and the apps versus I-20 or so.
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This is from a poster at American Weather:
"Be interesting to see how the RMMS do,you have alot of stuff that's fixing to happen along the IDL,a low, Rossby wave , Kelvin Wave ,WWB with a more suppressed IOD for a change,the strongest SST'S along the IDL.I still wonder if they will whiff out,but that's what they show right now."
 
Jessy89 said:
Cold but no moisture.


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That’s because the vortex dislodging that far south is pretty unreasonable. And cold does not = snow..the STJ was not shut off even in this run..it was just pushed into south Florida..but we’re moving towards an idea of some good cold air supply towards the end of the first week in January and an active STJ..main takeaway here
 
This run of the Gfs should have nobody feeling any sort of way but excited. The robust amount of blocking and cold shots is quite incredible with many opportunities for a storm to get going for sure. Volatility seems to be the theme that will show up in the pattern and its for cold and storminess
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
This run of the Gfs should have nobody feeling any sort of way but excited. The robust amount of blocking and cold shots is quite incredible with many opportunities for a storm to get going for sure. Volatility seems to be the theme that will show up in the pattern and its for cold and storminess
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Maybe not so much blocking but strong and persistent PNA ridging
 
Thank goodness that trough is there over the Lakes. Our big TPV also decides to camp out in Alaska on this EPS run, triggering a huge +EPO that floods much of the continent w/ mild air. We could still technically score in this kind of pattern but verbatim it's not a good look overall. As mentioned yesterday, the evolution of this TPV and subseasonal tropical forcing are the 2 big wild cards going forward, if said TPV were to migrate towards Alaska instead of staying closer to the Baffin Bay, that would completely destroy my notion for more poleward ridging in the NE Pacific in the longer term.

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As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

EPStrends.gif
 
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KyloG said:
As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

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Lower heights near the urals, higher heights near the aleutians, less of a mechanism to push the tpv into Canada so it stays put. Meh. Is it concerning? Sure. Is it something that can easily start going the other way? Yes.

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KyloG said:
As Webber pointed out...this ain't good.

It seems we have had winters in the past where we need everything, hemispherically, to completely flip. I wonder how those winters turned out...

Do we have a Npac low?
Do we have an Alaskan ridge?
Do we have a 50/50 low off Newfoundland?
Do we have high heights over the arctic?

The one positive is February is theoretically our best month....well except for the past several winters where it's been our most AN month.

View attachment 28752
Click to expand...

I really don't find that image that concerning. The PV still looks to be trending southward. That deep trough over Alaska should dive southward while rotating around the PV. The biggest issue I see is the weaker Aluetian low.
 
I am not real concerned yet about January. There is an increase presently of a blow up of thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Indian Ocean (hence the predicted Christmas warm up) which drives the MJO into the warmer phases but it appears to be very short lived. As long as the heavier precip builds and stays in the WEO instead of the EIO, we will tend to get into the cold phases (8,1,2). This will tend to pump up the ridge in Western Canada and dive a trough into the East as a result. Last year the opposite happened, the heaviest thunderstorm activity stayed mainly in the EIO and led to the trough setting up in the West and pumping our beloved SER in the East. There are other factors of course, like where the western ridge sets up, where the PV locates and whether or not we have a stratospheric warming or not but it is tough for us to get cold when the MJO resides in 4,5,6.
 
ATLwxfan said:
Looking this far out on models is hardly very informative. There will be an entirely different solution at 12z and the whole narrative could change.


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Bingo.

We seem to forget the modeling has done horribly this month outside of day 10. I can hardly trust Day 14-15 eps runs...if I still see it trending badly by Day 10 then yeah that’s a problem.

We have followed patterns this year that modeling has been extremely wrong on — just go look through the pattern thread and double check the verification. Nothing at this juncture to make me worry unless we lose the -EPO signal on multiple models.


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There’s cold shot after cold shot. No moisture moving in while it’s cold. Not even a fantasy storm


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I hope the more knowledgeable ones are right. Cant help but notice the similarities to last year. Torched up until mid October and flipped cold until mid December last year when a Pac puke pattern set in and ruined the whole winter. Only difference is this year we waited a week or so to flip to Pac puke. Sure it could be wrong, but the EPS looks just like what we had last year to start Jan.
 
MichaelJ said:
I am not real concerned yet about January. There is an increase presently of a blow up of thunderstorm activity in the Eastern Indian Ocean (hence the predicted Christmas warm up) which drives the MJO into the warmer phases but it appears to be very short lived. As long as the heavier precip builds and stays in the WEO instead of the EIO, we will tend to get into the cold phases (8,1,2). This will tend to pump up the ridge in Western Canada and dive a trough into the East as a result. Last year the opposite happened, the heaviest thunderstorm activity stayed mainly in the EIO and led to the trough setting up in the West and pumping our beloved SER in the East. There are other factors of course, like where the western ridge sets up, where the PV locates and whether or not we have a stratospheric warming or not but it is tough for us to get cold when the MJO resides in 4,5,6.
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Michael, sounds very similar to what bastardi said in his video yesterday. He makes sense though.
 
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