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Pattern The Great December Dump

You know the pattern is less sucky when the ensembles start making some noise:
GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png
 
Wondering if this strong low this weekend in the southeast could also be involved by shaking the pattern up?
 
Know the pattern is changing with a big gulf storm has trouble bringing rain to Ashe County, NC after the wet spell we had. Less wet but more cold coming.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Know the pattern is changing with a big gulf storm has trouble bringing rain to Ashe County, NC after the wet spell we had. Less wet but more cold coming.
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Subtropical jet is howling .. doubt we stop the moisture supply at all in the coming months unless that starts to slow or weaken .. doesn’t look likely
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Subtropical jet is howling .. doubt we stop the moisture supply at all in the coming months unless that starts to slow or weaken .. doesn’t look likely
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The subtropical jet won’t allow the cold to get deep enough in the South, so more 40 degree rains, as the STJ roars
 
packfan98 said:
You know the pattern is less sucky when the ensembles start making some noise:
GEFSSE_prec_snens_384.png
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12 members out of 20 isn't bad even if it is to hour 384. There are some members hitting at day 10 too. I like that there was some signal on 0Z and 6Z too but it wasn't mentioned. I just hope this doesn't get flushed like it feels to have been,
 
RollTide18 said:
This post makes no sense, we have gotten winter weather with an active STJ before.
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Just doesn’t allow that much cold air to get south. That’s why you don’t get snow in the south wit qpf in the 2,3,4” range and why tomorrow’s storm isn’t going to be snow, when the cold “ enough “ air makes it here in maybe a few weeks, these moist storms will likely disappear
 
Tarheel1 said:
Just doesn’t allow that much cold air to get south. That’s why you don’t get snow in the south wit qpf in the 2,3,4” range and why tomorrow’s storm isn’t going to be snow, when the cold “ enough “ air makes it here in maybe a few weeks, these moist storms will likely disappear
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A good example is go to a highway, have a baseball in hand and during the rush hour try throwing the baseball to the other side at ground level. Active pattern is good but bad because it doesn’t allow the cold to stick Round and we need it 1st. We will score during the transition like we always do.


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
but if too strong it can hinder cold air delivery..that’s why ninos can be warm, no?
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Ninos are below normal in the South, because of the constant clouds and moisture, so you get a lot of cold rainy days , with temps in the 30s and 40s, just not quite cold enough for wintry
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
but if too strong it can hinder cold air delivery..that’s why ninos can be warm, no?
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Really need to consider what's happening up north. It's been so long that we've had a robust STJ with a cold pattern, we've forgotten how tremendously awesome it can be. If you have a raging STJ and a minimally favorable pattern up north, then yeah, it will definitely overwhelm the pattern. This is what we've become familiar with. Most of the problems have been because we have struggled in the cold air delivery department (think blocking), when we've had an active southern stream.
 
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I know it’s fools errand and all to interpret and roll over day 10 operationals, but it’s the Euro and I’m doing it anyway. It’s pretty warm as is, but really like where it could be headed. See that H in the pacific? That’s good, and hopefully will extend further north to trigger -EPO. Also can see ridging towards Greenland, also good. Biggest question is where is that big vortex above Canada headed? Would be nice to see it break up or head to SE Canada as Webb has alluded. So reason for optimism but we will know better where we are going in a few days.
 
Rain Cold said:
The subtropical jet is not responsible for bringing cold down.
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1) waves within the subtropical jet are responsible for cold air advection not the jet itself because said jet is in thermal wind balance with the temperature gradient between the extratropics & subtropics

2) stronger STJ = less SER

3) the wave pattern associated w/ strong STJs are usually milder (GOA low) but that's far from always or even being mostly true.

The best type of pattern you can get is one loaded w/ North Pacific & North Atlantic blocking w/ a simultaneously strong STJ. It's hard to get strong NA & NP blocking simultaneously over long stretches of time because the pattern that creates NP blocking (-EPO/+TNH) destroys -NAOs & vis versa. There's a pretty good chance we'll have a strong NP block coupled w/ a respectable STJ in early January as I've been touting for quite a while now.

Unlike w/ -NAOs, -EPO/WPOs maximize the amount of cold air that gets fluxed into our pattern because they're usually associated w/ cross-polar flow that dumps the coldest air masses in the entire NH from Siberia & the Arctic Ocean into North America. Likewise, a strong STJ maximizes our chances of having moisture available when said cold air is being thrown into North America. Essentially, this -EPO/+TNH + +STJ is the pattern that gives the overwhelming majority of the board the best combined chance of having cold air & moisture in the right place at the right time. There's certainly a lot to like about what may be lurking around the corner
 
Stormdoc said:
View attachment 28705
I know it’s fools errand and all to interpret and roll over day 10 operationals, but it’s the Euro and I’m doing it anyway. It’s pretty warm as is, but really like where it could be headed. See that H in the pacific? That’s good, and hopefully will extend further north to trigger -EPO. Also can see ridging towards Greenland, also good. Biggest question is where is that big vortex above Canada headed? Would be nice to see it break up or head to SE Canada as Webb has alluded. So reason for optimism but we will know better where we are going in a few days.
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Piggybacking off of your optimism...if the GFS has the General idea of that -EPO nudging into AK, am I correct in thinking the vortex would have nowhere to go but south? I actually think a -AO would force it too far south leading to a suppressed southern stream. So I’m not super concerned with lower heights showing up at the pole 38F4F091-21C3-42AC-BF09-390C11F5FE10.png
 
The 10-15 day z500 from the EPS is not half bad & verbatim it's certainly serviceable. We really need to see the NE Pac anticyclone amplify & break into Alaska to create a -EPO & dislodge this vortex north of the Baffin Bay in our general direction. The evolution of this TPV in far northern Canada & the convectively coupled kelvin waves roaming the global tropics are the 2 big wildcards going forward.

download (73).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 10-15 day z500 from the EPS is not half bad & verbatim it's certainly serviceable. We really need to see the NE Pac anticyclone amplify & break into Alaska to create a -EPO & dislodge this vortex north of the Baffin Bay in our general direction. The evolution of this TPV in far northern Canada & the convectively coupled kelvin waves roaming the global tropics are the 2 big wildcards going forward.

View attachment 28706
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@Webberweather53, what do you ultimately think happens? Will we get there buddy? I would like to see the ne anticyclone amplify and maybe it will happen.
 
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