Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This afternoon's Euro run really isn't that much different from the 0z EPS mean valid for roughly the same time. Sure a few details are different but it's not like this run is way out in left field.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
This afternoon's Euro run really isn't that much different from the 0z EPS mean valid for roughly the same time. Sure a few details are different but it's not like this run is way out in left field.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As I mentioned yesterday, while this is far from the best pattern in the world, it's one that is certainly capable of producing in the upper south & I-40 corridor (OK/AR/TN/NC) if a few synoptic-scale bounces go your way. We really need to see a big vortex make an appearance over SE Canada to give areas down to & south of the I-20 corridor a legitimate chance.
Not a bad look at all and much better than fail boat storm this weekend. Actually can get some cold air feed there.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 50-50 low gravy train isn't stopping any time soon. As long as we keep seeing decent troughs near or south of Atlantic Canada, any warm-ups will be short-lived and there will be more attempts at -NAO
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The EPS is about to go for the jugular to open up January. This is starting to look like the GEFS runs from earlier this week, just delayed a few-several days into early January instead of very late Dec. A nice -EPO & -NAO are developing & our vortex over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is about to sink southward towards south-central Canada & the US. Once/if this happens things could get very interesting around here.
Woof.
Woof.
Nearly about as good as a pattern you can get around here being modeled, and ofc we got much better climo in January, like that STJ signal off cali/Baja extending into the pacific, that’s a loaded gun pattern and not the severe wx version, hopefully this holds
That's the type of setup that could bring snow from TX to the Carolinas and include many areas! Bring it!
Like that Pac ridge trending more north aswell
Mr. Golf
Member
Personally i would like to see more ridging up towards Alaska but thats just me. Also, to see the euro get the mjo out of the COD
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is probably about when we'll see our legit -EPO develop. I'd really like to see it come to fruition and send the vortex just north of Greenland tumbling in our general direction, especially right at our peak climo for cold. It's those kinds of patterns w/ a very active STJ like we have this year that are capable of bringing non-traditional areas for snow/ice in the southern US (south of I-20) into the fold.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Oh it could get a lot better than that if we start to establish a legit -EPO and dislodge that big vortex over extreme northern Canada
BHS1975
Member
BHS1975
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’m getting pretty close to pushing all my chips to the center of the table during the Jan 5-15 period. If we can get a nice EPO near the beginning of Jan, that TPV lobe over far northern Canada may pay us a visit near or just before the mid point of the month right during our coldest climoGefs tries. Glad I pushed my chips in
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That's money right there imo. Not frigid since the ridging doesnt quite extend to the EPO domain. Which is good with the Atlantic side slowing the flow and our coldest time climo wise I wouldn't think you'd want a huge -EPO unless you want suppression and cold and dry.
It's definitely happened before, but as nice as a time as it was, I would love to see it with a very active southern stream such as we have right now.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
No, a huge negative EPO definitely doesn’t mean cold and dry here, it usually argues for a SER with a storm track over us or to our NW. A deeper SE Canada vortex and strong subtropical jet are ways to squash the SER and keep the pattern from going dry. I seriously doubt it would turn cold and dry just given how strong the STJ is this year and the addition of West Pac forcing will only make it stronger
I hope the trend continues and we can score a good storm or two during peak climo!
Euro is now showing a trip close to the favorable phases of the mjo albeit still inside the COD.
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Here's something interesting regarding ATL major ZR or IP storms since 1975: almost all within COD.
MJO phase/amp for KATL ZR/IP since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)
1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in
So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common
2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in
So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample
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EDIT: so 8.5 of 9 major ATL ZR/IP since 1975 within COD.
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Mr. Golf
Member
Larry, i guess this is probably a dumb question but how can we have winter events inside the COD? I thought the mjo dictated that for the most part allowing the teleconnections to line up based on certain phases of the mjo? Maybe not?
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The phases go inside the COD, too.
Mr. Golf
Member
I didn't know that. Wow interesting. Like webber alluded to, you would think with the forcing along and west of the IDL, things would get colder pretty soon and IF the AAM can stay positive, we may be ok.
Fine.... I’ll be the one to post for everyone ?? funny everyone was bashing on the cold and snow hopefuls in here and swearing a sweaty ridge could cancel winter all together ... I laugh as we will probably be seeing many fantasy storms begin to pop up on models like this one the next week on all the models
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Goodness 
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Whoa indeed, for some reason tonight I wasn't expecting to see a crazy fantasy map like that. Although if that kinda trough happened it'd be cold and dry.
Too cold for snow? There has to be some middle ground that gets us what we all want
Yea, unless you can get a shortwave to come out the SW in time, and the GFS has a bias with holding back SWs in the Southwest for a very long time past hour 200
I find that ridging In eastern Canada interesting next to those 50/50s, watch it help us out in the long run of it stays
I hate to jump the gun and If i didn’t know any better I’d say goofy Is trying to do that 2014 thing again come early January..(+PNA bias of course..)
Jon
Member
Yep. Seasonal models, at least the ones I have access too (JMA, CFS, Euro SEAS5, BCC) all have a -EPO signal for January.
The GEFS keeps going back and forth for early January. The 48hr change is trending negative in the east. It’s a good sign considering these red and blue 500mb anomaly trends were flipped a day ago.
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pcbjr
Member
Hmmm ...
MichaelJ
Member
Wow, this even gets Phil in the game!
packfan98
Moderator
Alan shows the 6z Euro rain totals. Washout for many.