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Pattern The Great December Dump

No, it doesn’t because there is no really significant warming in the stratosphere in the NH that would force a warm pattern. It actually works the other way around, a cold stratosphere entices the tropopause heights to rise >> warmer troposphere & vis versa with a warm stratosphere. I’m not sure why this is an argument because it shouldn’t be.

I’m not arguing the facts. I find it mere coincidental every time we have warmer tropopause heights the cold air moves over to the cooler side.


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I’m not arguing the facts. I find it mere coincidental every time we have warmer tropopause heights the cold air moves over to the cooler side.


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For one thing, there’s a massive difference in impacts from warm tropopause heights and a warm low-middle stratosphere and these temperature anomalies are often a reflection tropospheric wave activity rather than a forcing in the traditional sense
 
I know it's the crazy morning run but gfs was close next week I'll be in Gatlinburg so book it! Its guna happen!
 
Upgraded to slight. If we get any breaks in the clouds and the sun comes out it could get real interesting
 

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The euro ended so close to something
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some damaging wind gusts/QLCS spin up tornadoes are possible, altho this is not impressive, and forcing is linear which mutes the tornado threat quite a bit, thermodynamics/low level instability and llvl lapse rates ain’t impressive, but SRH is definitely up there so like I said QLCS spinups is definitely possible
 
It is cold someplace. In fact, it's plenty of cold in many places. Just not here in this neck of the woods. If fortunes were reversed, a lot of other folks would be bemoaning the warmth. It's just a matter of wind and pattern. Nothing more and nothing less.
 
Dec 2019 ended up 6.6 AN temps for Chattanooga.. 9 years running now with AN Decembers. 2010 was the last time below normal. Truly weird actually.
 
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