17th-18th.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
17th-18th.
lol omega block on the euro at hour 192
The Euro is warmer late. I don't see anything good about that if one prefers cold.
strange looking H5 pattern 
December Nino.
Hard to like this look very much. Merry Christmas!
from Satan Claus
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If we can score a few days before, it can go in this wacky pattern. I’ll allow it.
Euro shows that, and while there's not much support, a pattern like that at this time of the year cant be written off, were gonna deal with ridging sooner or later, or ninoish conditions, that's definitely a NINO pattern, active southern stream aswell, kinda feels weird seeing that because we've gotten away with it so far
ATLwxfan
Member
Unfortunately the winter of our discontent is nigh. Good ol’ ridging. Hopefully no blowtorch and a pattern shift in January. Of course the next run could undo all of this.
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I honestly think the Euro is confused with this upcoming pattern. Things will change as we get close. We were already supposed to be seeing above normal temps for Dec about mid month no real stretch of above normal temps.
Yeah, but we’re not running away from that pattern forever, were overdue for it
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ATLwxfan
Member
We may not be seeing a blowtorch but we are definitely seeing slightly to modestly AN temps in ATL progged for much of the month.
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EPS says not to expect a blowtorch for the SE at least. Aleutian low building stronger and -NAO holding firm at the end of the run. I was always optimistic about winter, but I’m really starting to like Web and HM’s late December into January call.
EPS also more suppressed with the 17-18th system.
EPS also more suppressed with the 17-18th system.
Ninoish pattern around 200-240 
tennessee storm
Member
Yeah but not really seeing any signs of true cold air coming down on euro to meet up with system , to give us a winter storm either ... just average
SnowNiner
Member
Dude, you can not say this for the what the EURO shows. Weenie foul. Don't bring that build up statement unless there's a snow BOMB showing up...lol.
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A cutter with a weak high over NY. Definitely not a legit threat on that run.
I think he’s talking about a different storm, a low forms in the GOM as a trof goes negative tilt and forms a low that heads into the Atlantic, he’s talking about something different
Was the winter of 2010 a Netural state as well? What was snowfall accumulations that winter?
The GEFS looks a bit interesting for the system the op has been throwing darts at
SnowNiner
Member
Now that we have the Atlantic seemingly on our side next week, what do we need to root for to get the pacific right? Flip the red and blue and get them to swap? MJO in in phase 2 heading for the COD. Doesn't seem like that's fighting against us. How do we get the Aleutian low back to pop a west coast ridge?
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That still seems seasonal to warm, unless I'm missing something. I do like the blocking signature showing up, which I'm guessing is what you are also liking here.
Nonsense, if it were showing a snow bomb it would be a weenie post cause it would end up in MO. Haha
Gotta get ahead of these things to trap em.
Yeah it’s not the week 2 pattern itself it’s the week 3 and after I am hoping for.
It was strong nino and that winter was end to end cold and snowy for the east...for the most part.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
On the other hand if you get something like 15-16 then you end up with nothing or very little.
If you notice though those dates correspond with what was the only sustained stretch of above to well above temperatures that whole winter and the blocking that was set up during it lead to a great 5-6 weeks after fairly consistent threats and most of us cashed in at least once if not 2 or 3 times during that stretch.
Per model consensus, there's no sustained cold in sight for the SE US like we had in November. We're likely looking at near to slightly warmer than average over the next 15 days averaged out. The best shot at sustained cold anomalies is in the N Plains like usual of late. That is La Nina-like.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
Member
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Better than + 10 for the month
Unless someone prefers it mild when dry like Brick and some others..
It’s amazing watching the Euro systematically slaughter the FV3. Slowly but surely it’s trending farther southward and more separation with the second s/w in the 17-18th time frame. It’s also caving H5 wise with the high level blocking.
Thanks, and good point. I was at a stoplight and just saw a dearth of pretty blue colors over my backyard.
What is with this fake news +PNA tendency of the GEFS, which is especially evident on the 18Z? We know it is likely way overdone based on countless bad verifications. Don't fall for this BS. Go with the EPS if you're smart. SMH
Moving the discussions about 330 hr individual ensemble members to the Whamby thread.
They are in pretty good agreement except GEFS has the pac low further SW. Lets see who is more right over the next few day’s. I’m not sure the GEFS is totally off it’s rocker here.
But yeah, if I had money it would be on the EPS.
Move that Pac low slightly SW and get that blocking a touch stronger, and oh man. A Rain Cold guarantee won't be far behind!
Personally I like the EPS look better. At least it would buckle the PAC jet a little.
Golf7575
Member
It still looks like we got a ways to go for a more exciting pattern. The ao and nao trending negative and it's still not good enough. What we need? I really hope we don't chase unicorns all winter.
ATLwxfan
Member
I simply don’t understand the panic in December. It usually does not snow in December for most of us. What happens in December stays in December.
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