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Pattern The Great December Dump

packfan98 said:
That looks great! Is there any way to keep our high pressure from escaping so quickly? Looks like the NAO will not be any help. No 50/50 either. I guess all comes down to perfect timing? That is so often the case.
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Yeah most Miller B events historically come down to timing, a -NAO coupled w/ a strong high-latitude North Pacific block can definitely help keep the high around longer by creating a traffic jam upstream over east-central Canada & New England. However, a strong -NAO in concert w/ a beastly -EPO is rare because the forcing mechanisms that create one of these patterns often destroy the other.
 
Who are the “we” everyone keeps referring to. The whole SE or just certain parts need to pay attention
 
Quite the difference in week 2 temps...EPS v/s GEFS

I'm sure you could figure out which is which rather easily.

GEFS-EPSTEMPS.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
The Euro ensemble is trending heavily in our favor for a winter storm next week w/ increasing stream separation over the western US around day 4.

View attachment 27120
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Not surprisingly, the EPS mean went up substantially vs the previous run over CAD favored areas of NC, SC, & GA & we're basically back to where we were yesterday afternoon w/ the 12z EPS.

I like it.
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From Kirk Mellish ...

https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/rumors-rumors-rumormongering-and-hype/V1IqoIy58YdopaWGcsFi6J/

Most of us understand his rant and agree, but in the world of the weather board, all is fair. Good to have a place to discuss what is being shown. Personally, I enjoy the experts here who provide sound analysis and reasoning, with the understanding that no matter what, it is still a prediction of what might happen. It kind of gives us an inside track to what the public will know later.

I would suspect that most of us here are "that person" that friends & family look to for weather advice. In a sense, I would suggest that we should not go to extremes with those outside this world that we reside in ... even though we enjoy discussing those possibilities here. I was kind of surprised to see Glenn Burns (WSBTV Atl Met) post the pic on Facebook he did ...

burns image.jpg


Years ago he was very bullish on winter possibilities, then he got really conservative, and over the last couple of years has become a little more bullish ... perhaps competition or clicks?? Anyway, that far out to post that kind of map from someone like him may be a little irresponsible. On the other hand, perhaps it will get folks to pay closer attention to the weather in the upcoming days so they are not caught off-guard. I suppose you could argue either way. (Grocery stores appreciate it though!!)

Good luck to all as continue the best weather time of the year. Hoping you all get treated to winter weather at some point!!
 
southernskimmer said:
I moved to CLT in 2017 from GSO and boy, has it been tough (no)sledding.
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gradients have been crazy these past few years (el ninoish gradients), literally no snow CLT-south, then it piles up and increases CLT-north (kannapolis/concord/huntersville/lake Norman) , basically 85 separating things, but that’s kinda expecting with these miller B storms we’ve had these past years
 
southernskimmer said:
I moved to CLT in 2017 from GSO and boy, has it been tough (no)sledding.
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CLT/RDU are like 50 miles from GSO but GSO probably has received double the snow over the past decade. The triad area does really well...I grew up there and miss it in the winters.
 
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