Pattern The Great December Dump

[Myfrotho704_]

The energy seems to look more separated from the northern flow this round.

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Lots of work to do, but we know the gfs and it’s issues, so it’s good it’s showing this at that range, but yeah it’s slowly, but steadily starting to make out a disturbance in the Southwest

 

[wxdaniel]

There's that tall western ridge as an poster mention earlier. Looks to

surpressed now


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[wxdaniel]

As myfro mention the gfs looks like it's taking baby steps toward a ULL out on the SW but it's being suppressed to much

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[Jeremy Camp]

Interesting View attachment 27139

Models will flip-flop because we are so far out. As we get closer however the models should become more consistent with wintry precipitation chances. I hope!.

 

[wxdaniel]

It is so hard to distinguish which particular threat we are talking about. There is littlerly many threats on the table.


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[Ethan80963]

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 27141

Much improved. Better cold press. Sharper western ridge. Better separation. She trying to dig. All we can ask for??

 

[Ethan80963]

Of course this happens and looks better....

But the GFS is gonna mess it up

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Of course this happens and looks better....View attachment 27142

But the GFS is gonna mess it up
View attachment 27143

I’m thinking this time period will miss north but after that initial whiff, the table is set!

 

[Jessy89]

I noticed last year into this year. Gfs starts a system around the gulf the cuts. Gfs does this all the time. Shows a winter storm first then changes.


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[Meteorologist1999]

It’s so funny how 2 runs ago we was suppose to have a possible winter storm around 13-14th now it’s severe weather.? I can’t with the Gfs??‍

 

[Ilovesnow28]

Hmmm

 

[Ollie Williams]

GEFS looking better

 

[SimeonNC]

This is probably a given but all OP precip solutions should basically be ignored for the next few days, it will continue to flip flop from run to run for a while. What matters is seeing the ensembles continuing to show good trends at h5 and right now that's exactly what we're seeing.

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[Jessy89]

Gfs is a parade of cold rain systems for most people.


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[WxWatch]

I plan on uploading a video discussing about the possible winter storm system. Would it be good for me to post it in this thread? or the Whamby thread?

 

[bouncycorn]

Solid potential for something to pop late next week for Deep south thru mid Atlantic. Nice suppression being shown on guidance, i'd just like to see more separation between the southwest us shortwave & longwave trough... along with of course more northerly/horizontal orientation of the frontogenesis along the gulf coast.

 

[Storm5]

HmmmView attachment 27144

Only ten days to go!


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[Ilovesnow28]

Only ten days to go!


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Yeah im just happy to see a fantasy storm with shade of blue over my house (likely not going to verify) but it gives me piece of mind that i did get a chance to see some fantasy frozen action over Tuscaloosa even if it just this one and only time

 

[Avalanche]

Gfs is a parade of cold rain systems for most people.


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We still need the rain.