WxBlue
Meteorologist
Yeah, we're running a bit behind for the year across most of the Carolinas outside mountains and parts of the Piedmont. South Carolina needs it more than we do here in North Carolina.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yeah, we're running a bit behind for the year across most of the Carolinas outside mountains and parts of the Piedmont. South Carolina needs it more than we do here in North Carolina.
SnowNiner
Member
HM is still on the late December blocking return. Man I hope he's right.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah if this is correct, this SCAND retrogression towards Greenland underneath (i.e. -NAO) what might be more receptive tropical forcing (barring the Indian Ocean finally calms down) could yield another really good pattern in early January.
pcbjr
Member
Way out on a limb here, Webb, but going for "will" rather than "could" ... the table looks like the dice are rolling well ... ("maybe") ...
You can post it in here. Just put a disclaimer claim it’s not a actual forecast. Just a possibility of what could happen if things line up correctly.
Will you let us know what the 18z EPS says
SimeonNC
Member
Question, I know it's way too early to ask for this specific "storm" but in general do winter storms spawned from the upcoming pattern have the same type of extreme gradient when it comes to snow and other p-types as we have seen in recent years or is this pattern something different?
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Lots of support for a southern storm in this time period with a strong ridge out west. The 12z Euro said phaser, good luck figuring that out.
Could to much of separation be a bad thing like what’s shown above?
Update: Below is one of my manually produced models that is based on a blend of the Euro, GFS, GEFS and EPS. The timing is off on the models, this is why I did not include the timing of the track of low, but I will input the timing eventually. I have calculated numbers to generate the mean low pressure values. I also included the frozen precip. sectors. The reason why I think the low will take that track is due to the upper-level winds. The fast jet streak will be north of the low pressure, the low would "ride" along underneath the jet. I'm predicting that east of the mountains the p-type would mostly be ZR, however, a winter mix could be possible. For AL, North and Central GA, eastern TN/western NC I'm predicting heavy snowfall. Amounts are unknown at this time due to model disagreement.
About the timing of the low pressure development: Soon as the convergence happens entirely with the polar and STJ, that's when the low will develop quickly. The timing of the full convergence is approximately at 06z Wednesday. So, that tells that the low would begin to develop around that time. If we look at the surface on the Euro valid at 06z Wed, rain shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 1016 air pressure at the lowest. This is the indication of the low pressure developing on the end of the boundary.
Overrunning: The models are slowly coming into agreement that there will be overrunning before the low kicks out. As the convergence begins taking place, moisture will re-develop early as Tuesday afternoon into/Wednesday morning. Looking at the jet stream winds at Tue 18z, the convergence starts taking place. Below at the surface, the overrunning starts taking place as well, due to the beginnings of the convergence.
About the timing of the low pressure development: Soon as the convergence happens entirely with the polar and STJ, that's when the low will develop quickly. The timing of the full convergence is approximately at 06z Wednesday. So, that tells that the low would begin to develop around that time. If we look at the surface on the Euro valid at 06z Wed, rain shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 1016 air pressure at the lowest. This is the indication of the low pressure developing on the end of the boundary.
Overrunning: The models are slowly coming into agreement that there will be overrunning before the low kicks out. As the convergence begins taking place, moisture will re-develop early as Tuesday afternoon into/Wednesday morning. Looking at the jet stream winds at Tue 18z, the convergence starts taking place. Below at the surface, the overrunning starts taking place as well, due to the beginnings of the convergence.
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GFS is basically by itself right now with its solution
Jessy89
Member
Your saying Atlanta gets heavy snow. And GSP gets freezing rain. I’m not sure I’m buying that
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I do have a question about your thinking that precip type being mostly ZR east of the mountains. The storm track that you’re showing is typically a perfect storm track for heavy snow in the CLT metro and really all of the NC southern Piedmont and eastern SC upstate. Usually that track would have very little in the way of mixing either. What make this set up you’re show different?
Yes there can be to much. But that isn’t it above. The end of the run looked really good.
Cadi40
Member
I'm sure this will be moved to banter like every other comment in this thread, but I truly appreciate WxWatch's effort to contribute to the meteorological discussion taking place, regardless of his level of experience and/or accuracy. He's taking the time out of his day to make maps and lengthy posts elaborating on his thoughts regarding the upcoming wintry threat. Whether he's right or not, he's earned my respect.
I agree and I think its kind of disrespectful to call his model BS just because it doesnt show what you want to see.