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Pattern The Great December Dump

SoutheastRidge said:
I agree and I think its kind of disrespectful to call his model BS just because it doesnt show what you want to see.
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My only problem with the map is that the storm track suggests that at least the Northern and Western Piedmont of NC would see more snow/sleet mixing in than than purely or mostly ZR.

The precip map looks more like a cutter/front-type track than anything else to me.

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Cadi40 said:
I'm sure this will be moved to banter like every other comment in this thread, but I truly appreciate WxWatch's effort to contribute to the meteorological discussion taking place, regardless of his level of experience and/or accuracy. He's taking the time out of his day to make maps and lengthy posts elaborating on his thoughts regarding the upcoming wintry threat. Whether he's right or not, he's earned my respect.
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Precisely ...
 
WxWatch said:
Update: Below is one of my manually produced models that is based on a blend of the Euro, GFS, GEFS and EPS. The timing is off on the models, this is why I did not include the timing of the track of low, but I will input the timing eventually. I have calculated numbers to generate the mean low pressure values. I also included the frozen precip. sectors. The reason why I think the low will take that track is due to the upper-level winds. The fast jet streak will be north of the low pressure, the low would "ride" along underneath the jet. I'm predicting that east of the mountains the p-type would mostly be ZR, however, a winter mix could be possible. For AL, North and Central GA, eastern TN/western NC I'm predicting heavy snowfall. Amounts are unknown at this time due to model disagreement.

View attachment 27165


About the timing of the low pressure development: Soon as the convergence happens entirely with the polar and STJ, that's when the low will develop quickly. The timing of the full convergence is approximately at 06z Wednesday. So, that tells that the low would begin to develop around that time. If we look at the surface on the Euro valid at 06z Wed, rain shower activity over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico with a 1016 air pressure at the lowest. This is the indication of the low pressure developing on the end of the boundary.

View attachment 27168

Overrunning: The models are slowly coming into agreement that there will be overrunning before the low kicks out. As the convergence begins taking place, moisture will re-develop early as Tuesday afternoon into/Wednesday morning. Looking at the jet stream winds at Tue 18z, the convergence starts taking place. Below at the surface, the overrunning starts taking place as well, due to the beginnings of the convergence.

View attachment 27175View attachment 27177
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The effort you put into this post and analysis is commendable. I can't say I'm not disappointed that your not expecting a mostly heavy snow event anymore. Looks like about half snow and half ice now.

I disagree with the ptype distribution you have, based on the track and storm type you have. If the cold is in place that you expect, and the storm takes that track (which would represent a Miller A cyclone), there would be little zr. It would be mostly snow, quickly transitioning to rain. The pattern, however, strongly suggests a Miller B, which would favor more of the ptype scheme you have shown in your map, east of the mountains.

Good luck on your forecast!
 
Cadi40 said:
Anybody that takes time out of their day to post their knowledge and input let alone create maps and upload videos is an excellent resource to this community and therefore should be respected like all of you expect to be.
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Damn right. Sorry for the banter


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I’m not saying his maps or forecast or right or wrong. He just making a prediction. I’ll be honest I’m enjoying his input very much. I regardless of the outcome of it. But yes I question where he has the freezing rain vs the snow based on that particular track so far to our south. In my opinion there wouldn’t be very much freezing rain. That’s a perfect track for mostly heavy snow for a lot of the southeast. That’s if it’s on the track he’s saying.


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I’d love to say I expect snow across the SE, but I don’t. I like the setup, but I believe cold air will be lacking for most of us. Need to thread the needle with a much stronger northern stream push without completing shearing out the s/w. Those in SC and NC look much better due to CAD and then probably more of the ZR type.

But something to track and hopefully the first of many.
 
Chazwin said:
I do have a question about your thinking that precip type being mostly ZR east of the mountains. The storm track that you’re showing is typically a perfect storm track for heavy snow in the CLT metro and really all of the NC southern Piedmont and eastern SC upstate. Usually that track would have very little in the way of mixing either. What make this set up you’re show different?
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The reason why I think there will be mostly ZR east of the mountains is because the deep cold air will not make it east of the mountains. There will be much deeper cold air in the snow sector, while the cold air will be shallow east of the mountains. Exact p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA would be factored in the ZR sector. I do think in the ZR sector, the p-type starts off as snow changing to ZR mostly/possible mix/back side snow. Based off of my predicted low track, WAA would start to become a factor as the low approaches closer off of the southeastern coast.
 
Jessy89 said:
Your saying Atlanta gets heavy snow. And GSP gets freezing rain. I’m not sure I’m buying that


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Yeah, I wondered the same. In a cat situation it would be the opposite Atlanta would have freezing rain and gsp the snow
 
WxWatch said:
The reason why I think there will be mostly ZR east of the mountains is because the deep cold air will not make it east of the mountains. There will be much deeper cold air in the snow sector, while the cold air will be shallow east of the mountains. Exact p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA would be factored in the ZR sector. I do think in the ZR sector, the p-type starts off as snow changing to ZR mostly/possible mix/back side snow. Based off of my predicted low track, WAA would start to become a factor as the low approaches closer off of the southeastern coast.
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Thank you. So this sounds like you’re favoring almost a Miller A/B hybrid?
 
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