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Pattern The Great December Dump

Webberweather53 said:
Seeing a cascade of cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track coupled w/ a parade of 50-50 lows & having the tropospheric polar vortex in your backyard over Northern Canada is making the weenie side of me very happy in the longer term.

If you want a beefy -NAO & threats for coastal cyclones, this how you get them

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Webberweather53 said:
That big vortex sitting over Atlantic Canada is exactly what you want to see around here to score a big time Miller B winter storm. The only thing separating this weeks setup from glory and/or a devastating ice storm with a high that “locks in” is that feature right there. The fact that it’s showing up on the ensembles too and given that we have the primary lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex sitting in northern Canada, waiting to phase with a s/w in the polar jet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big trough show up there in the extended.
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I like what I am reading from Webber. Sounds like the positives outweighs the negatives at this point for winter storms to develop down the road. Just have to wait to let all the factors play out to give us a good shot.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
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“ even NC” doesn’t almost the entire state of NC outside of the mountains not average its first accumulating snowfall till January ?

Im just saying snow is obviously not an expectation this time of year even in NC.
 
The energy is actually there with that storm but the northeast confluence that caused it to be a CAD storm before cutting up (even on that laughable 12z) is even faster this run.

Just ridiculous that you can have changes that fast. Maybe we'll get an eastern trough sometime in January so we don't have to rely on crazy blocking.

Edit: Loooool, we've gone from an ice storm to possible severe weather in two runs. My confused cat meme is true in this one, except it took two runs.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
The energy is actually there with that storm but the northeast confluence that caused it to be a CAD storm before cutting up (even on that laughable 12z) is even faster this run.

Just ridiculous that you can have changes that fast. Maybe we'll get an eastern trough sometime in January so we don't have to rely on crazy blocking.

Edit: Loooool, we've gone from an ice storm to severe weather in two runs. My confused cat meme is true in this one.
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I DONT HAVE ACCESS TO THE MAPS IS THE SEVERE WEATHER FOR CENTRAL ALABAMA OR FURTHER E/NE
 
The GEFS were being .. well the GEFS tonight .. lots of activity beginning with next weeks storm... whatever happens with that thing it’s looking more likely it’s going to be a high impact event across a lot of the US
 
Trend seems to be Cool but not cold so far this year. Looking at this first map below you would think we would have a pretty nice tap of cold air in later December
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Although the 2M temps look a bit better the upper levels really aren't showing much in the way of anamolous cold.
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Makes you wonder if that lack of Artic sea ice that you hear so much about will make even good patterns more moderated now.
 
Thor said:
Trend seems to be Cool but not cold so far this year. Looking at this first map below you would think we would have a pretty nice tap of cold air in later December
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Although the 2M temps look a bit better the upper levels really aren't showing much in the way of anamolous cold.
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Makes you wonder if that lack of Artic sea ice that you hear so much about will make even good patterns more moderated now.
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I’m almost certain sea ice has nothing to do with upper level cold?? I’m sure by end of January you’ll feel some real cold ?
 
6z gfs, our winter storm is back. 1051 H diving down end of run.
 
gotta like what the GEFS is showing, not a bad pattern for a miller B, can notice some type of trough in the plains and that cold vortex in NE Canada, also this time with blocking which would keep a 50/50 hanging out longer which would allow some sort of parent high to stay much longer, just gotta get a stronger high 1576070769865.png1576070798289.png
 

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ALDOT has Been treating the roads this am . Wrecks everywhere
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I'm really liking where the ensembles seem to want to go next week and beyond. -AO comes back, -NAO returns. It doesn't look amazingly cold but cool (pacific still needs work). Not looking at individual storms but I love the return of blocking up top and nice big 50/50 lows to push the storm track south. Perhaps through January and February this will translate in to a production pattern for us. At the very least we feel "wintery" through the end of the year.

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Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, the GEFS certainly seems to be on board with the idea of a CAD event sometime around the solstice over the Carolinas.
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It seems like that crazy GFS storm that keeps showing up in a couple weeks has a decent signal on the ensembles. I bet that's where the increase in the mean shows up. Maybe a timeframe to watch.
 

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Yeah, that storm system that some keep talking about on the GFS around the 20th/21st does have my attention as well, but it's too far out to speculate on anything for my liking. Should be able to get a better understanding of what could turn out as we head into the weekend, since by then it would be in the 6-7 day window.

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Not seeing the 21st storm. No strong blocking. 50/50 low heading out. No strong high pressure. No really cold anomalies nearby. No Euro support. Looks like a crappier version of the coming storm, TBH. Doesn't mean things couldn't change, but the stars will probably have to line up just right, and the window is narrow.

The good news is, there really isn't a hint of a terrible pattern setting up in a stable way. And it wouldn't take much to transform this seasonal pattern (which is better than what we've seen in recent years) into a favorable winter pattern.
 
packfan98 said:
Nice looking Miller A storm track on the 12z GFS for the 12/21 period. It's a little warm for a massive winter storm verbatim, but the signal is there.
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Gonna need more high pressure, but the fact it’s been on 4-5 runs now, in some fashion, is encouraging
 
packfan98 said:
Nice looking Miller A storm track on the 12z GFS for the 12/21 period. It's a little warm for a massive winter storm verbatim, but the signal is there.
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Nice track location. That high is just too far north and not strong enough. Perhaps that trends better in time and the 50/50 gets further south. With an -NAO modeled maybe we get a SE trend this year? lol.
 
WxWatch said:
Yeah, that storm system that some keep talking about on the GFS around the 20th/21st does have my attention as well, but it's too far out to speculate on anything for my liking. Should be able to get a better understanding of what could turn out as we head into the weekend, since by then it would be in the 6-7 day window.
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Idk bout y’all but I would still be clueless in the 6-7 day range to speculate on much. I really don’t see much at the moment in this pattern.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Idk bout y’all but I would still be clueless in the 6-7 day range to speculate on much. I really don’t see much at the moment in this pattern.
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I agree, one key to winter storms down here is having the cold in place before the storm arrives. I don’t see it and we haven’t seen it yet this winter. I do like the active pattern so it’s a chicken or egg kinda a thing.


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BirdManDoomW said:
Idk bout y’all but I would still be clueless in the 6-7 day range to speculate on much. I really don’t see much at the moment in this pattern.
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I'm not 100% sure, but the netrual ENSO may be effecting the calculations of the upper air pattern on the models. I'm not NOAA's model engineer, so I don't know, but it's a thought that came to mind that could be possible.

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Arcc said:
The Euro is still cutting the system here as well, but it won’t take much to completely change it.
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Gotta like that even though the euro cuts the 17/18 system that cutting enhances the west based -nao which digs another trough across the NE and into 50/50 position. Only thing that's sucks is the fact it's ugly across the us into the Pacific

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SD said:
Gotta like that even though the euro cuts the 17/18 system that cutting enhances the west based -nao which digs another trough across the NE and into 50/50 position. Only thing that's sucks is the fact it's ugly across the us into the Pacific

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I think the Pacific will look better as we get closer.
 

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The 50-50 low has been getting much stronger on the GEFS the last several runs & digging further south. The corresponding west coast ridge is also intensifying in successive runs (increasing +PNA). Verbatim as I see it, this is a mid-Atlantic centric pattern that favors Miller B events & "fringe" snow/ice in the Carolinas, but this is definitely not a terrible pattern by any means.



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Marginal cold to begin with. And we know the GFS is going to have the entire height field too far to the south nearly 10 days out 9 times out of 10.

The main way I could see this trending toward a widespread winter storm (outside of some slop in the CAD regions) is to see more robust blocking develop. Seeing that would give credence to a suppressed height field. As is, you have nearly an ideal track with a small batch of wintry precip. And that's with the bias baked in. Needs quite a bit of work.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
gotta like the trend to more blocking tho on the GEFS, and that big cyclone in the pacific is trending south, which may help out a bit, and that 50/50 is trending south, also that's a nice -AOView attachment 27784
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That blocking trend is going to be critical for this time period, if we are going to see a winter storm in the 8-10 day frame.
 
i wonder what will happen if blocking remains and the MJO becomes favorable again, if it would it would be after christmas
 
Euro continues to strengthen blocking. The Euro now shows the first low forming off the east coast with the trough more disjointed with the second s/w hanging back. That look could work with more tweaks.
 
Arcc said:
Too late to go negative this run, low forms deep in the GOM and then moves off FL and temps are beautiful. Blocking up top is amazing.

Game on. Trends suggest possibly first substantial threat board wide.
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What time period you looking at?
 
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