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Pattern The Great December Dump

73 right now at RDU, mean December maximum is 72 so unusually warm now for a typical December month, and much above average for a typical December day. Meanwhile, wedge keeping Greenville sc and Atlanta cool. It hit 81 in Laurinburg NC today, so parts of the state broke 80! 77 in Greenville NC right now. 79 in Fayetteville as well! If wedge was a bit weaker could have been a good deal warmer in Raleigh.

I enjoy big warmups followed by sharp cooldowns. I wish it would produce some severe weather for us!

I see 77 right now just south of Raleigh in Harnett county, wonder what sd and rain cold are reporting?
 
Interesting FB post by Glenn Burns today...
I was with the great folks from our Atlanta National Weather Service this morning talking about upcoming winter. Although the Climate Prediction Center is saying WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS this winter, most don't agree. I am one of them. I am going cold and wet...and I see the chance of several snows. We are not in an El Nino or La Nina pattern. We are in a neutral pattern. We've seen lots of snow in the neutral pattern. The Blizzard of '93 was in a neutral pattern!
 
It has dropped 20°since my early morning run! Excited that Burnsie is on board too. A rarity when the usual naysayers are all in.


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The temperature fluctuation of the past 24 hours has been fun to watch. We didn't rise above 50F until midnight last night and hit 64.6F this morning around 9, and have since fallen almost 20 degrees back to 45.9F.

It looks like places like Augusta and Columbia are in 75-80F warmth today.

NWS just posted a special weather statement:

"...FLURRIES MAY MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA... FLURRIES COULD MIX WITH LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. AREAS THAT WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL OF SEEING A FEW FLURRIES WILL MAINLY BE BETWEEN ROME AND THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF ATLANTA. NO SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. "

A little surprised to see this as insignificant as it is.
 
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Seeing a cascade of cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track coupled w/ a parade of 50-50 lows & having the tropospheric polar vortex in your backyard over Northern Canada is making the weenie side of me very happy in the longer term.

If you want a beefy -NAO & threats for coastal cyclones, this how you get them

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Webberweather53 said:
Seeing a cascade of cyclonic wave breaking in the North Atlantic storm track coupled w/ a parade of 50-50 lows & having the tropospheric polar vortex in your backyard over Northern Canada is making the weenie side of me very happy in the longer term.

If you want a beefy -NAO & threats for coastal cyclones, this how you get them

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Seems mild, though, just looking at height anoms. I guess with confluence to the NE, you'll have surface highs to contend with, feeding in cooler air. But the evolution of this looks like it may force a +PNA, which would lower heights to the east.
 
Rain Cold said:
Seems mild, though, just looking at height anoms. I guess with confluence to the NE, you'll have surface highs to contend with, feeding in cooler air. But the evolution of this looks like it may force a +PNA, which would lower heights to the east.
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I think it’s mostly because the Euro is having big trouble forecasting the PNA.
 

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Lol gfs loves to show a crippling storm one run. Then start backing off by the next run


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SnowNiner said:
The Polar Vortex in Maine would probably be helpful to our winter storm chances. lol.

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That big vortex sitting over Atlantic Canada is exactly what you want to see around here to score a big time Miller B winter storm. The only thing separating this weeks setup from glory and/or a devastating ice storm with a high that “locks in” is that feature right there. The fact that it’s showing up on the ensembles too and given that we have the primary lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex sitting in northern Canada, waiting to phase with a s/w in the polar jet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big trough show up there in the extended.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
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I would include central and most of north GA and SC in the no snow zone.


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Jessy89 said:
Lol gfs loves to show a crippling storm one run. Then start backing off by the next run


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I think anything beyond hour 200 has almost zero predictive value for us outside of following trends. The earth pretty much turns flat and storms fall off the edge into the abyss.


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Next week is interesting, squish that little bit of ridging in the SE more and you may see some wintry precip in NC at the start, especially with a 50/50 low more SE along with that shortwave digging more, or get more transient southeast ridging like the GFS shows and end up getting severe weather, GEFS leans more on the severe weather side, but note that is MAX spc not mean, mean is 0-2 in Mississippi at that time 34202356-34F0-46DD-87B5-0333D13BF3B3.pngEC557DE4-C7F2-493D-8C10-566335FCB529.pngD8F32C92-7E4D-4A97-9770-07831430A3C1.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
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The prime timeframe for areas down this way are January and February, December is just a bonus, I actually prefer December storms but they’re rare here in Alabama.
 
RollTide18 said:
The prime timeframe for areas down this way are January and February, December is just a bonus, I actually prefer December storms but they’re rare here in Alabama.
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I don't care much for winter storms after Mid February. By then the sun angle will melt the snow within a day or two. I want to see snow on the ground at least a week.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Our positive (+) Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event has waned significantly, and thus I expect the Indian Ocean standing wave to progressively lose its strangehold on the global tropics going forward. This means we should starting encountering patterns in January & February that are more receptive to cold/snow & -NAOs as the secondary area of anomalous uplift in the West Pacific becomes relatively more influential.
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This looks like plotting my daily excitement about winter

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