God love the Chicago crush job on the GFS next Tuesday . Im sure it will be gone at 00z but im in love for 6 hours
Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
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The Polar Vortex in Maine would probably be helpful to our winter storm chances. lol.
The blocking to our NE leaves sooner and the high isn't as strong so this won't be as much wintry, but needless to say, a storm is still there.
any bets on what the 0z does? I'll take dropping this energy for 100, Alex.
any bets on what the 0z does? I'll take dropping this energy for 100, Alex.
18z run has much less ZR for North Georgia for the storm the end of next week. Surface low tracks much farther north.
Lol gfs loves to show a crippling storm one run. Then start backing off by the next run
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Yeah not remotely close to last run only one icy frame here
Fwiw, the Happy Hour GEFS offers happiness as it isn't remotely as warm as runs earlier today for the days leading to Christmas. It is actually colder than normal.
But still in the slight realm of improbable possibilities...
If a low of 48º over 384 makes one happy ... sign me up ...
So far this “winter” is already doing better outside CAD areas of NC, sure no snow in southern MS/AL/GA/SC or even NC but some areas that whiffed last year are finally seeing something
That big vortex sitting over Atlantic Canada is exactly what you want to see around here to score a big time Miller B winter storm. The only thing separating this weeks setup from glory and/or a devastating ice storm with a high that “locks in” is that feature right there. The fact that it’s showing up on the ensembles too and given that we have the primary lobe of the tropospheric polar vortex sitting in northern Canada, waiting to phase with a s/w in the polar jet, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a big trough show up there in the extended.
I would include central and most of north GA and SC in the no snow zone.
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I think anything beyond hour 200 has almost zero predictive value for us outside of following trends. The earth pretty much turns flat and storms fall off the edge into the abyss.
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Next week is interesting, squish that little bit of ridging in the SE more and you may see some wintry precip in NC at the start, especially with a 50/50 low more SE along with that shortwave digging more, or get more transient southeast ridging like the GFS shows and end up getting severe weather, GEFS leans more on the severe weather side, but note that is MAX spc not mean, mean is 0-2 in Mississippi at that time 
The prime timeframe for areas down this way are January and February, December is just a bonus, I actually prefer December storms but they’re rare here in Alabama.
I don't care much for winter storms after Mid February. By then the sun angle will melt the snow within a day or two. I want to see snow on the ground at least a week.
This looks like plotting my daily excitement about winter
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