I'm going to analyze all of the 12z data and see what I can come up with. Give me some time, I'll have a detailed post within the hour.
Worth bringing up these monstrous composites again.
Original post:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/nao-and-snowfall-correlation.587/page-2#post-182944
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Wouldn't exactly call this "ensemble support" from the GEFS
Yep it’s a win having the more progressive model showing nothing at this point..surely the Euro can’t be wrong at this range two December’s in a row..Classis GFS v/s Euro battle. GFS is quicker with the southern energy and wraps it up with the deep trough, Euro leaves behind and thus a southern wave forms after cold air in place. Both have known biases here but this is a day 5 deal and one of these models is largely better at this range.
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High too far east for RDU
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After last year I don't blame you. If models don't give up the strength and placement of the HP, we will be talking about this potential for a while.I'm still not sold on anything yet, but we definitely are closer to something than we were yesterday. We need consistency of models. The timing is a day or so apart, which makes me already skeptical between the GFS and Euro, so this may be a one and done run. I want to see 3 more days of runs before I draw anymore conclusions.