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Pattern The Great December Dump

From some on this thread, it would seem that I need to plan to visit Jackson, MS again next Tuesday morning to see the icy goods.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have never seen so much hype for a cold front before. Please don't get hyped up for this. There is nothing to see.
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on this. I’d get it if the FV3 or the Euro were putting out several inches of snow like the one in November, but we have nothing. Unless we get another December 2017 storm, Anafronts are dead to me. Lol.


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WxWatch said:
I maybe wrong, but I believe the ICON has terrible predicted temp. profiles. The placement of moisture is ideal though, it's in the snow-zone that I drew on my map that I posted up earlier. If it was cold on that run, that would be a lot of snow on tonight's ICON run. The main front passes through, moisture builds back in as the STJ kicks in gear starting at 06z Tuesday.
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The players are at least on the field I’ll give you that much. But if this things gonna happen models need to start showing it.


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WxWatch said:
I maybe wrong, but I believe the ICON has terrible predicted temp. profiles. The placement of moisture is ideal though, it's in the snow-zone that I drew on my map that I posted up earlier. If it was cold on that run, that would be a lot of snow on tonight's ICON run. The main front passes through, moisture builds back in as the STJ kicks in gear starting a 06z Tuesday.
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I think the mountains would have the best shot at anything this early in the game. If this were a situation where snow pack was abundant to our north and a stalled arctic front that would be much different. If for any reason what you highlight works out for this area I will be the first to buy you a beer lol.
 
If you zoom in real close Al/Ga line then you can see some mixing blending in on the gfs tonight. All I'm saying, is there could be a chance that something happens big or small. Gefs has been showing this potential for days now.
sn10_acc.conus.png
 
I’m not hyping or nothing, but there has been a interesting trend on the GFS, still temps are mostly to warm, but the trends on the GFS has been a slightly stronger western Atlantic ridge (helps with moisture but to much can mean it’s to warm) and less of a PV Lobe press with allows more moisture for the Carolinas/GA/AL, mostly a anafront tho, look how bad the GFS is tho with that low in SE Canada which will end up acting as a 50/50 low and destroy any sort of transient -NAO 2D1C1274-F698-421A-AC61-2935C6F67AE8.gifD9674E05-9DBE-4E4D-B41E-BD8BC3749B0B.gif
 
Jessy89 said:
The players are at least on the field I’ll give you that much. But if this things gonna happen models need to start showing it.


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It’s still 6-7 days away. Plenty of time for models to catch on to something
 
Euro/GFS are in surprising agreement with the H5 pattern at around 200 hours, it’s meh for a winter event due to AN heights in the SE but there is that Shortwave in the SW/near Mexico
 
ForsythSnow said:
I have never seen so much hype for a cold front before. Please don't get hyped up for this. There is nothing to see.
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As much as I don’t believe this will happen, I also have learned to not discount a possibility. You know what else was a cold front with not much to see a week out, 12/08/17. How do I know? Because I said something like it. The ICON is much closer than anything else at this point. It needs a stronger cold push. Now it’s probably wrong, but for comparison purposes it’s closer to what you want at H5.

Now the “needless hype for a cold front” award goes to that debacle of a thread last year that someone tagged my name in the title.
 
Ollie Williams said:
on this. I’d get it if the FV3 or the Euro were putting out several inches of snow like the one in November, but we have nothing. Unless we get another December 2017 storm, Anafronts are dead to me. Lol.


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12/8/17 wasn’t an “anafront” setup in the sense most people think of. It was a secondary wave/overrunning setup.
 
GFS is trying to break some 2m temperature records out in fantasy land ? . I think it maybe has a cold bias
 
Gefs has a good signal for CAD around hour 228-252 and has kept that for the past several runs, but most members have the storm cut or amp up way to much, so most show ice to rain, I’m interested in this Becuase even in the worst case, a in situ CAD would be possible 05EDCED4-D26E-4254-8F7A-91FCA0797253.jpegDA55EF8B-5D46-40AA-86B1-4CC8539AC918.jpeg
 
CMC hour 222. Trying to throw moisture from the Atlantic in quickly over leftover artic air mass. Temps in the teens prior. Makings of a light icing event or cold rain. May get interesting for spots further west too as it gets closer. 229C9A7D-0B89-4210-BB6C-E59E89C4F9A8.jpeg
 
Even the cold biased GFS is line w/ the thinking that we're actually going to be pretty mild the first portion of December. Most of the SE US will be at par for the course vs the last 8 Decembers being about 3-4F above average.

This takes us thru December 11th, hopefully that big arctic outbreak can put a dent in this.

ANOM2m_fcstMTH_ntham (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even the cold biased GFS is line w/ the thinking that we're actually going to be pretty mild the first portion of December. Most of the SE US will be at par for the course vs the last 8 Decembers being about 3-4F above average.

This takes us thru December 11th, hopefully that big arctic outbreak can put a dent in this.

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Aren't we in the first part of December now? I had to scrape ice off my windshield again this morning....
 
The last couple of days have felt very fall like to me. I honestly don't care if nighttime lows are +10 AN. 40s to mid 50s for highs through Sunday. Then up for a few days, then back down. Since we're not in a winter storm pattern or staring down the barrel of a prolonged December torch, a few degrees either side of normal feels like fall and fall feels good. Who can complain about that?
 
Brick Tamland said:
Why does it matter if people get hyped or not? He is putting out what he thinks could happen and why. Everyone so quick to shoot it down.
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You do recognize that those "shooting it down" are doing so with sound reasoning right? But sure why does it matter if one gets hyped, go for it, get hyped all you want just don't complain or call it a failure if/when it doesn't happen. Fact is I could point out the possibilities with any approaching storm system (if the trough would dig more, if it was just colder, if the low would slow down, if the energy would speed up, if we had divine intervention), any system and get hyped all day long, ride the hype train with caution and don't get heartbroken when those systems that aren't really systems to begin with, fail.
 
Rain Cold said:
The last couple of days have felt very fall like to me. I honestly don't care if nighttime lows are +10 AN. 40s to mid 50s for highs through Sunday. Then up for a few days, then back down. Since we're not in a winter storm pattern or staring down the barrel of a prolonged December torch, a few degrees either side of normal feels like fall and fall feels good. Who can complain about that?
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But I thought we had a winter storm bearing down on us in a week
 
metwannabe said:
But I thought we had a winter storm bearing down on us in a week
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Yeah, I'm still not really seeing it. I mean, what we'd want is a low developing and moving as shown below, along with the high in the Plains moving eastward just ahead of or in tandem with it. I don't see that showing up right now. But it's fine. I'm happy to let the Midwest and Northeast get cold and snow and hopefully get a good snow pack laid down north and west of here.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_8.jpg
 
Gefs is eh, been getting a better CAD signal and more HP in the eastern US with that second interesting system but the H5 pattern has started to trend the wrong way, this would suggest that things would likely mostly be ice/rain and its possible this could trend towards severe WX if the SE ridge builds more 630FB639-8B4F-4D14-A61F-EE8055805BFD.gifDBEFFC0A-D814-4B28-B1D7-486E5F4DA4DC.gif
 
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Strong cold front certainly looking likely this time next week. Maybe not Winter weather, but hey, we need the cold first right?!
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I'm still not really seeing it. I mean, what we'd want is a low developing and moving as shown below, along with the high in the Plains moving eastward just ahead of or in tandem with it. I don't see that showing up right now. But it's fine. I'm happy to let the Midwest and Northeast get cold and snow and hopefully get a good snow pack laid down north and west of here.

View attachment 26951
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Tablesetter
 
☃️51715C8C-9201-4B9E-8620-EE7B2728BA6C.png
 
Robert West said:
Strong cold front certainly looking likely this time next week. Maybe not Winter weather, but hey, we need the cold first right?!
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We always get cold first, we need a storm to match with it
 
metwannabe said:
You do recognize that those "shooting it down" are doing so with sound reasoning right? But sure why does it matter if one gets hyped, go for it, get hyped all you want just don't complain or call it a failure if/when it doesn't happen. Fact is I could point out the possibilities with any approaching storm system (if the trough would dig more, if it was just colder, if the low would slow down, if the energy would speed up, if we had divine intervention), any system and get hyped all day long, ride the hype train with caution and don't get heartbroken when those systems that aren't really systems to begin with, fail.
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I also want to note,

Of course, my predictions are all based off of a technique I use that has a fairly good accuracy rating. I know some totally disagree with my predictions and malign the way I approach what is being shown on these models, which is fine. This forum is all about sharing our thoughts and analysis, and I like my analysis to have profundity. If some really like my posts, and if they're all hyped about it (like you mentioned) let them ride the hype train. That's what weather forecasting/predicting is all about, the joy and the exhilaration, whether if the prediction is right or wrong.
 
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