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Pattern The Great December Dump

Webberweather53 said:
Nope, this monstrous Gulf of Alaska trough in the extended as we experience +EAMT this week will flood the North American continent w/ mild Pacific air & most of the cold air will remained bottled up in extreme northern Canada or exit stage right over the Atlantic Ocean. I hope u like stale, Pacific air.


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That is as ugly as it gets. And almost on the exact date it showed up last year and winter was over. That pattern takes a very long time to get out of and we won't have the luxury of an early season snow this year before it sets in.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Nope, this monstrous Gulf of Alaska trough in the extended as we experience +EAMT this week will flood the North American continent w/ mild Pacific air & most of the cold air will remained bottled up in extreme northern Canada or exit stage right over the Atlantic Ocean. I hope u like stale, Pacific air.


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Still hoping this is a necessary evil as it matches up with past good nino's. Of course I am cherry picking the good ones.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-6281600.pngurc67fV6j1.png
 
Warmest 5 day block on the 6z GEFS though 264. Rather be chasing 10+ day warm-ups than 10+ day cool-down, I guess.

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_7.png
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
It does look rather seasonable which is ok. But that EPS modeled pattern gives me nightmares about last winter. Isn't that the same pattern that wrecked the 11-12 winter too?
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Not 100% sure on that one. The other thing I'd keep in mind is that these anomaly maps can be confusing in that they often provide an illusion, especially up in Canada, that there's a torch going on. A five day AN block in Canada doesn't mean it still isn't cold, depending on the degree of the anomaly.
 
KyloG said:
Still hoping this is a necessary evil as it matches up with past good nino's. Of course I am cherry picking the good ones.

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Some of those years in your composite had a decent -AO in December which isn't going to happen this year. +AO/+NP Decembers are downright hideous.
M_hERwlQPi.png


cd75.184.25.237.332.8.45.14.prcp.png


At least they get better in February (shocker).
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GFS is trending nicely for some heavy rains down I40 corridor tomorrow night into Sunday. Tracking rain...it's what we do.

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Jessy89 said:
You can have a mild winter temperature wise. And still get a couple good snow storms. It’s all about timing


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Or you could have a cold winter and not get any snow at all. When it comes to the south, I'm not even sure it matters whether its a warm or cold winter. Does having a cold winter significantly increase the chances for snow in the deep south ? I'm not so sure.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Or you could have a cold winter and not get any snow at all. When it comes to the south, I'm not even sure it matters whether its a warm or cold winter. Does having a cold winter significantly increase the chances for snow in the deep south ? I'm not so sure.
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No, having a colder than normal winter doesn't necessarily mean that there would be more snow in the southeast. There could be cold blasts after cold blasts and still not end up with nothing, but maybe some flurries. Even if it's a warm winter overall, places in the southeast can still experience snowfall. The lower latitudes can experience all types of extreme weather in a short period of time during the winter. I've seen places in the southeast get accumulating snow after a tornado outbreak. So yeah, I don't think it really matters.

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