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Pattern The Great December Dump

Wouldn't exactly call this "ensemble support" from the GEFS
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Webberweather53 said:
Worth bringing up these monstrous composites again.

Original post:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/nao-and-snowfall-correlation.587/page-2#post-182944
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Notice when you compare our upcoming pattern to the Miller B composite that trough east of Atlantic Canada in the composite digs & becomes negatively tilted (thus implying it's also slower).

There's certainly nothing wrong with what we have on the Euro here, but notice how the trough over Eastern Canada axis is further west and more progressive vs the composite, meaning that the southern stream wave timing will have to be that much more precise to generate a similar classic, wintry CAD response & we might have a tighter window to work w/. There's plenty of time to resolve these smaller-scale details, but things like these do matter here imo.



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Sleet City USA said:
Wouldn't exactly call this "ensemble support" from the GEFS
GEFSMA_prec_ptypens_216.png
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While I’ve been posting those myself, I wouldn’t pay as much attention to the precip maps, there definitely fun when they show something tho, but anyways the GEFS has been improving with that HP in the NE over time, only issue is at H5, it’s speeding up the PV lobe a bit, west coast ridging/-EPO is weakening a bit, and weak ridging here in the SE is trying to become a issue, it’s still alright ATM but we don’t need anymore ridging/AN heights, also note where that SW is near Texas/NM/AZ, basically in between the euro and GFS 4207BD13-4593-4722-9F26-3D60F69C1709.gifEA608AA3-FAEE-47D2-A88D-B0902479D91A.gif
 
I can’t believe our first legit fantasy storm is being brought to us by the king EURO ... makes you think something like this could have some legs to it... I would also have people notice how interesting the end of the euro model actually is as well ... looks ominous for another storm to come up the pipe
 
I'm still not sold on anything yet, but we definitely are closer to something than we were yesterday. We need consistency of models. The timing is a day or so apart, which makes me already skeptical between the GFS and Euro, so this may be a one and done run. I want to see 3 more days of runs before I draw anymore conclusions.
 
Classis GFS v/s Euro battle. GFS is quicker with the southern energy and wraps it up with the deep trough, Euro leaves behind and thus a southern wave forms after cold air in place. Both have known biases here but this is a day 5 deal and one of these models is largely better at this range.

gfs-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-5892800.pngecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-5892800.png
 
The new Gfs at 6 will be interesting I hope


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KyloG said:
Classis GFS v/s Euro battle. GFS is quicker with the southern energy and wraps it up with the deep trough, Euro leaves behind and thus a southern wave forms after cold air in place. Both have known biases here but this is a day 5 deal and one of these models is largely better at this range.

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Yep it’s a win having the more progressive model showing nothing at this point..surely the Euro can’t be wrong at this range two December’s in a row..
 
Welcome to the party, Euro. If we do get a storm next week, I think it needs to be noted the GFS showed the potential first in the long range, and the Euro would be falling in line.
 
It would be crazy if there were 3 major winter storms in 3 straight Decembers. It used to take a miracle just to get even a light winter event in December.
 
ForsythSnow said:
I'm still not sold on anything yet, but we definitely are closer to something than we were yesterday. We need consistency of models. The timing is a day or so apart, which makes me already skeptical between the GFS and Euro, so this may be a one and done run. I want to see 3 more days of runs before I draw anymore conclusions.
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After last year I don't blame you. If models don't give up the strength and placement of the HP, we will be talking about this potential for a while.
 
BHS1975 said:
High too far east for RDU


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As I posted before, I really like the initial cold air (dew points ~0). Also, as long as we get the storm to stay off the coast we could actually get a meso high to set up just to our north. This would keep a stronger CAD in place. And again with the really cold air in place, the precip could be over before the air temp could get above freezing.
 
I'm running behind on my detailed post, but I will most *definitely have it posted sometime this evening. I do think the timing is off on the Euro with the low pressure system. I think the low pressure system will bring mostly snow, and I'll explain why in my detailed post.
 
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WxWatch said:
I'm running behind on my detailed post, but I will most defentailly have it posted sometime this evening. I do think the timing is off on the Euro with the low pressure system. I think the low pressure system will bring mostly snow, and I'll explain why in my detailed post.
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Make sure you don't set your hopes too high. ;)
 
FallsLake said:
As I posted before, I really like the initial cold air (dew points ~0). Also, as long as we get the storm to stay off the coast we could actually get a meso high to set up just to our north. This would keep a stronger CAD in place. And again with the really cold air in place, the precip could be over before the air temp could get above freezing.
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I think there was a storm in February 2015 when that very thing happened. Models kept wanting change over to rain up to almost a few hours before the event even though temps here were in the upper 20s with dew points near 0. Then the models started picking up on the mesohigh that developed just to our north and temps locked into the mid 20s with sleet and a little freezing rain for 12 hours when the forecast had been for freezing rain changing to rain
 
You guys are crazy haha We have had 2 EURO runs show a system 190+ hrs out.

At this point all you can say is that there is a storm signal and even then its only a couple runs old.

Need this inside 6-7 days before even thinking about it being a legit system. Not to mention there is any entire system in front of this one that will have to be out of the way before this one even comes into focus
 
Fountainguy97 said:
You guys are crazy haha We have had 2 EURO runs show a system 190+ hrs out.

At this point all you can say is that there is a storm signal and even then its only a couple runs old.

Need this inside 6-7 days before even thinking about it being a legit system. Not to mention there is any entire system in front of this one that will have to be out of the way before this one even comes into focus
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The large-scale ingredients are clearly there by day 6-7 on both the Euro & EPS esp given they're virtually identical out to that period. What happens thereafter remains to be seen but given the previous statement, this has some legitimacy & wasn't a "fluke" run imo.
 
More often than not, the perfect timing that we need in these situations doesn't pan out...i.e. the high slides out too quickly. Hopefully, that won't be the case here. But it's usually a good bet to lean in the direction of cold highs being overmodeled this far out. Still, it's good to have a high pressure nearby, at least, with a legitimate cold air source to tap.
 
Webberweather53 said:
The large-scale ingredients are clearly there by day 6-7 on both the Euro & EPS esp given they're virtually identical out to that period. What happens thereafter remains to be seen but given the previous statement, this has some legitimacy & wasn't a "fluke" run imo.
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Agreed. I'm not saying this wont happen. In fact, this is likely the first period that shows promise for a widespread event. And I always feel more confident when the EURO and EPS are on board first. It seems those systems are always pretty legit. As you said the ingredients are there and that's the key at this range! I won't be super interested until we get this to the 6 day mark (144 hrs). Our first system puts a lot of variables into the playing field.

These storms that are modeled far out are always so taxing haha give me a surprise storm at day 5 over tracking a storm for 7-9 days.
 
Rain Cold said:
More often than not, the perfect timing that we need in these situations doesn't pan out...i.e. the high slides out too quickly. Hopefully, that won't be the case here. But it's usually a good bet to lean in the direction of cold highs being overmodeled this far out. Still, it's good to have a high pressure nearby, at least, with a legitimate cold air source to tap.
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I think a really big high is coming down next week regardless, North Pacific blocking regimes usually maximize the depth/intensity of arctic air we have to work with because it often originates from across the pole in Siberia.
 
Wondering if this system keeps showing up, we can get a better look at H5? Or would doing that mess up our High? What, hypothetically would be our options for a better look?
 
Webberweather53 said:
I think a really big high is coming down next week regardless, North Pacific blocking regimes usually maximize the depth/intensity of arctic air we have to work with because it often originates from across the pole in Siberia.
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Agreed. Hopefully, it hangs out long enough.
 
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