Jessy89
Member
There hasn't been another Euro run yet, he's talking about the 12z still.
9pm the 18z data comes out right
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There hasn't been another Euro run yet, he's talking about the 12z still.
It does but it only goes out to 90 hr. We have to wait til about 1:30-2 am for the next big Euro run.9pm the 18z data comes out right
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Was about to say the same thing. Too slow and the high's a goner by the time it cuts west of us. Euro has a tendency for energy to set up camp too long in the SW, so that may be at play a little bit here.Don’t want that to be too slow tho. (ULL)
AgreedWas about to say the same thing. Too slow and the high's a goner by the time it cuts west of us. Euro has a tendency for energy to set up camp too long in the SW, so that may be at play a little bit here.
Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
Need good ol’ fashioned 6” powder bomb followed by a quarter inch of ZR on the tail end. That would make up for all the suck this past decadeWell the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
Need good ol’ fashioned 6” powder bomb followed by a quarter inch of ZR on the tail end. That would make up for all the suck this past decade
Good grief..... What ever happened to being conservative?Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
The real deal is this...if the models, any of them, have the upper air pattern modeled correctly, we're not looking at a SE snowstorm pattern. It is a Miller B or Cutter/Apps Rubber pattern. If the timing is just right, a winter storm is possible. But the nature of it would most likely feature a lot of ice.
The thing to be optimistic about is that when we are fortunate enough to actually get strong high pressure tracking in a favorable position, we either don't have good cold air to tap and/or we don't have a storm. This time we have both cold air nearby and an active STJ. So, the ingredients actually appear to be there this time. Now we wait.
A lot of storms have one thing that stays consistent. Most of the time it’s precip, nice to see strong HP for once. Gives me at least a little confidence that more members could be affected rather than the I-85 north CAD favored areas, if anything were to materialize of course.HP configuration/strength continues to get better in the GEFS, 1037 high will do the trick, even if it’s transient, likely not done going up either, a 1037 HP Past hour 200 is very impressive, impressive CAD sig and that “banana high” look View attachment 27015
I cant believe pro mets would be saying that after one operational run 8 days out.Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
I cant believe pro mets would be saying that after one operational run 8 days out.
Saying it on social media to get viewers to the tv.I’m guessing it on Facebook and not TV, they tend to let there hair down soon on social media.
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Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
They can’t resist their inner weenieSeriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.
Perhaps you misinterpreted?
I just looked Glenn Burns up. He indeed said it was a model run. But did state to be prepared. Can be interpreted many ways. But he got 3200 comments so...Seriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.
Perhaps you misinterpreted?
Thanks for the big post! One thing I would point out is that if you're expecting heavy wet snow, you won't get high ratios. If you're expecting high ratios due to deep cold, the snow will be more powdery in nature. Might be good to incorporate that variable into your model. Might help with predicting or forecasting or estimating (not sure how we're using these terms now??) snow depth.
I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.
So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.
View attachment 27016
View attachment 27017
This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!
View attachment 27018
Your right, but I personally think places other than CAD areas could see something if this were to happenIt’s fun to look at but I don’t think taking the Wednesday GFS temps and using the EURO Friday QPF map is going to pan out.
If you put a low pressure off the coast on the Wednesday gfs those temps will be much different and warmer most likely.
This pattern definitely favors a CAD ice storm. I’m sure there would be good snow in some areas of a storm were to develop but ice would be a huge threat with this CAD.
Lol, wrong or right I'm gonna pull for you all the way. Even if this is a fail, dont give up and keep practicing what you do. Great job man.I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.
So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.
View attachment 27016
View attachment 27017
This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!
View attachment 27018
Why is it bonkers? We waited all year for this. It's fun regardless of what the out come isI know its banter but this thread is absolutely bonkers. I don't even know where to start so I wont. Carry on.
That would help slow the flow down some and perhaps a better n and s branches interaction, especially a west based nao.Webber, what are your thoughts on a -nao? Will it be a while before that occurs? Thanks in advance.
Webber, what are your thoughts on a -nao? Will it be a while before that occurs? Thanks in advance.
Yeah, don’t like those positive heights and 570+ dms on top of us when this storm is approaching, WAA would be a issue, but still got that CAD/cold surface so ice is definitely on the table, don’t like these H5 patterns the ensembles/OPs are showing as they resemble some bad ice storms we’ve had in the past
Based on what?I know its early but here are some of my early predictions:
Birmingham: 18"
Atlanta:14"
Chattanooga: 22"
Greenville: 16"
Macon: 4" snow with 1" sleet/zr
Charlotte: 15"
Columbia: 6" with 1/2" ice/zr
Nashville: 10"
This is banterHaha I’m laughing seeing Greenville with 16 inches. Not gonna happen thanks for the laugh
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This is banter/whambyHow much for Raleigh?
In the whamby threadwhere do I sign up