Jessy89
Member
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
It does but it only goes out to 90 hr. We have to wait til about 1:30-2 am for the next big Euro run.
Good news is that including the 18z Euro op, the 18z EPS looks even better through he 144. The ULL is even slower, including the Control. We will see at 00z what happens next.
Vorticity look
EPS
GEFS
Vorticity look
EPS
GEFS
Don’t want that to be too slow tho. (ULL)
Just a little tick if even. Overall it’s solution seems more consolidated taking verbatim. I think it just has a few more “better” solutions than 12z
Euro Vort and H5 comparison
12z
18z
Was about to say the same thing. Too slow and the high's a goner by the time it cuts west of us. Euro has a tendency for energy to set up camp too long in the SW, so that may be at play a little bit here.
If we want more snow we want this thing slower than the Gfs but faster than the euro ... luckily both model biases come into play where euro usually keeps the energy too long while the Gfs usually spits it out too fast... something tells me we are in for some fun 00z model runs
Agreed
gawxnative
Member
Well the ATL TV Mets are "chiming in".. Burns is saying ZR at 1.0-1.75" accumulation... Other are leaning to Heavy Snow event (10") ...HMMMM
NoSnowATL
Member
The real deal is this...if the models, any of them, have the upper air pattern modeled correctly, we're not looking at a SE snowstorm pattern. It is a Miller B or Cutter/Apps Rubber pattern. If the timing is just right, a winter storm is possible. But the nature of it would most likely feature a lot of ice.
The thing to be optimistic about is that when we are fortunate enough to actually get strong high pressure tracking in a favorable position, we either don't have good cold air to tap and/or we don't have a storm. This time we have both cold air nearby and an active STJ. So, the ingredients actually appear to be there this time. Now we wait.
The thing to be optimistic about is that when we are fortunate enough to actually get strong high pressure tracking in a favorable position, we either don't have good cold air to tap and/or we don't have a storm. This time we have both cold air nearby and an active STJ. So, the ingredients actually appear to be there this time. Now we wait.
Need good ol’ fashioned 6” powder bomb followed by a quarter inch of ZR on the tail end. That would make up for all the suck this past decade
Jessy89
Member
A good heavy snow with temps in the mid 20s be great
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Cad Wedge NC
Member
Good grief..... What ever happened to being conservative?
HP configuration/strength continues to get better in the GEFS, 1037 high will do the trick, even if it’s transient, likely not done going up either, a 1037 HP Past hour 200 is very impressive, impressive CAD sig and that “banana high” look 
Storm5
Member
For my area, I’d take an apps runner all day
In all seriousness this isn’t the best looking pattern BUT for December we obviously will take it and be excited when comparing the last few December’s
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A lot of storms have one thing that stays consistent. Most of the time it’s precip, nice to see strong HP for once. Gives me at least a little confidence that more members could be affected rather than the I-85 north CAD favored areas, if anything were to materialize of course.
I cant believe pro mets would be saying that after one operational run 8 days out.
NoSnowATL
Member
I’m guessing it on Facebook and not TV, they tend to let there hair down soon on social media.
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Saying it on social media to get viewers to the tv.
SnowNiner
Member
Seriously? Because of one run of an op run 7 days away? Am I missing something? I'm all about being a weenie and geeking out over big winter storm chances, but you would think actual Mets who many folks listen to would know better. Strange.
Perhaps you misinterpreted?
They can’t resist their inner weenie
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Obviously, I'd love to see more model consistency before getting excited about this.
I just looked Glenn Burns up. He indeed said it was a model run. But did state to be prepared. Can be interpreted many ways. But he got 3200 comments so...
I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.
So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.
This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!
Fountainguy97
Member
It’s fun to look at but I don’t think taking the Wednesday GFS temps and using the EURO Friday QPF map is going to pan out.
If you put a low pressure off the coast on the Wednesday gfs those temps will be much different and warmer most likely.
This pattern definitely favors a CAD ice storm. I’m sure there would be good snow in some areas of a storm were to develop but ice would be a huge threat with this CAD.
accu35
Member
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Your right, but I personally think places other than CAD areas could see something if this were to happen
Claycochaser
Member
I know its banter but this thread is absolutely bonkers. I don't even know where to start so I wont. Carry on.
accu35
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Lol, wrong or right I'm gonna pull for you all the way. Even if this is a fail, dont give up and keep practicing what you do. Great job man.
I mean I could also see this end up very badly as well. There is such a fine line. For now, let's just see if we have any run to run consistency the next few days.
Golf7575
Member
Webber, what are your thoughts on a -nao? Will it be a while before that occurs? Thanks in advance.
accu35
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Why is it bonkers? We waited all year for this. It's fun regardless of what the out come is
Golf7575
Member
That would help slow the flow down some and perhaps a better n and s branches interaction, especially a west based nao.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Need to see the IO standing wave quiet down and probably get another round of +SCAND/-NAMT going before we can start to think about the NAO again, the foreseeable future is liable to be positive or very positive. The very tail end of Dec &/or early January (ish) is roughly what I would shoot for to see another legit -NAO attempt to take hold because I think the IO standing wave will have broken down by then.
Yeah, don’t like those positive heights and 570+ dms on top of us when this possible storm is approaching, WAA would be a issue, but still got that CAD/cold surface so ice is definitely on the table, don’t like these H5 looks the ensembles/OPs are showing as they resemble some bad ice storms we’ve had in the past, again tho we don’t even know the timing or whether this thing will be to slow or be fast enough to become a “winter storm” and this can still completely lose any legs it had real quick
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The mid-level ridge axis is traditionally right over us during Miller B/CAD events. This z500 is pretty close to that and is if anything shifted SW of the composite look over the last 70 years or so which probably means we might see a deeper high further south towards PA/MD etc vs New England & southern Canada.
