Wow, I notice warm air keeps getting pushed back.. it’s been pretty chilly the last month in the SE except for just a few above/near average days.Really nice to see the warm pattern continually being kicked down the road on successive EPS runs. Doesn't begin to turn legitimately mild until after mid month.
Lol I just tweeted the same. The 13-17th period, if being modeled correctly, should deserve some excitement and hopefully we will grab one to track. I was thinking yesterday when graupel was falling...this winter feels different.Verbatim there isn't a whole lot of support for the system at day 9 on the EPS, but certainly beyond ~ day 12 ish on the tail end of this big cold shot there's some snowier solutions.
Member 21 would be nice, 2-3 separate winter storms in 5 days.
In all seriousness though, it's hard not to get at least a little excited here given the active storm track we'll already have in place
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I'm wondering if the models are struggling with the mjo and the forcing there?I definitely thought we were going to take a hiatus beginning around Dec 10 & lasting thru most of the month even just several days ago. You can basically throw that idea in the trash.
The evolution of these planetary-scale features is often driven by upscale growth from individual synoptic-scale events whose predictability is often limited to several days to a week or so. This basically seems like a case where a few minute details in the way the wave breaks were represented over the North Pacific have dramatically changed the outcome. The broader scale planetary waves didn't change much.I'm wondering if the models are struggling with the mjo and the forcing there?
Yep, I noticed it this morning, the EPS is not warm, but seems to be coming around to the general idea of the GEFS, just a bit more muted: PV in SE Canada, westernish ridge, just not as tall, and the beginnings of an Aleutian low. Basically our pattern for the last 5 years, but this time in December too. I'm still a bit disappointed our -NAO evaporated (sigh), but having a cool/cold pattern persist this early is encouraging. Hopefully this is the beginning of a long cold winter.Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
Agreed...the only thing I would say here is that the northern plains and east-central US is probably going to be favored for the coldest anomalies, until we get a favorable configuration up in the NAO domain. I would expect negative anomalies to be tempered in the SE with a bit of a gradient pattern through the region. Same with winter storm chances. I'd think northern and western zones are favored, as has been said, rather than threats to the deep SE. But you never know. Anyway, it's a much better boat to be in heading into mid-December than the last few.The bias of the EURO to push the trough into the West and build a ridge in the East is well known. The EURO will likely continue the correction and the trough will end up sliding East on future runs as we have seen it do so far. Nothing is guaranteed in the long term on the models but the pattern is looking much better than last December. If we can get that Western Canada ridge to build stronger and the NAO to go at least neutral, I like the chances for something happening before Christmas in the 40/85 corridor at least
Yeah, the thing with these -EPO driven cold outbreaks when we do get good cold south, is they tend to be cold and dry for a bit, and by the time a storm comes through it's gone because of the progressive flow. It can be frustrating, but it can work. I'm not looking for storm chances this early anyway. I'll just call a cool December a win if we can get it and hope for a shake up in the NAO domain in January to slow everything down.Agreed...the only thing I would say here is that the northern plains and east-central US is probably going to be favored for the coldest anomalies, until we get a favorable configuration up in the NAO domain. I would expect negative anomalies to be tempered in the SE with a bit of a gradient pattern through the region. Same with winter storm chances. I'd think northern and western zones are favored, as has been said, rather than threats to the deep SE. But you never know. Anyway, it's a much better boat to be in heading into mid-December than the last few.
It appears that the GFS Op is not too bad after all. I can understand the GEFS being too cold because, and I may be wrong about this, the individual members are still the old GFS model.Based on data today from Maxar, this Atlanta bias analysis is what really makes me wary about the recent trend toward colder in the models:
ATL Bias last 30 days (Negative Model Is Too Cold; Positive Model Is Too Warm)
1-5, 6-10, 11-15
This didn’t copy in the right format, but the gist of this is obvious: universal
model cold bias for ATL in 1-5, 6-10, and 11-15 the last 30 days with the GEFS being the worst in all 3 timeframes and even the Euro suite not a whole lot better.