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Pattern The Great December Dump

SoutheastRidge said:
I would be willing to bet that the March 1927 snow in NC happened mostly at night, early in the morning, or late in the afternoon. Hard to get that much snow during the middle of the day in March in NC due to the sun angle.[/QUOTE
March 24, 1983 had 10 inches in Charlotte that fell almost all during the day
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Ok off topic 93 storm needs to go to banter please. Thank-you.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
If i recall the 93 blizzard started on a Friday evening in GA. It got going good overnight.
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I was in NW Cabarrus County, NC during the ‘93 blizzard about 20 miles north of Charlotte. The rain changed to a heavy snow about 11am Saturday and we ended up with about 7 inches before it tapered to flurries about 5pm
 
Chazwin said:
I was in NW Cabarrus County, NC during the ‘93 blizzard about 20 miles north of Charlotte. The rain changed to a heavy snow about 11am Saturday and we ended up with about 7 inches before it tapered to flurries about 5pm
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If it's snowing hard enough then the sun angle can be overcome in March. But it has to be coming down good.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Ok off topic 93 storm needs to go to banter please. Thank-you.
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Shane @SD, can you move the 1993 Storm of The Century posts to either the Whamby thread or the Banter thread please?
Whamby = OT Weather (ie. 1993 SOTC)
Banter = OT Everything Else (ie. Bruins winning)
 
Arcc said:
12z Euro isn't far from a really good look at the end of its run. The EPS/GEFS are warmer, but not far H5 wise.

Progressive patterns can provide big results, as someone said beforehand, it's about timing.
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I was going to say that the 12Z EURO looks better in the Pacific at least, with perhaps a +PNA pattern trying to develop...but alas it is 240 hours + out.
 
Perhaps we should start a thread where we can discuss and reminisce about old storms.

Edit: I just started it. Its fine to bring up old storms to make a point, dispell rumors, use as analogs in the pattern threads. I would actually encourage everyone to use a past storm thread to show pictures you have, post snow maps, post 500mb/surface maps, post anomaly maps leading into a storm. It could actually become a great resource to reference this winter where we can link to that thread and posts in it and for folks to educate themselves on what it looks like synoptipcally before some of the greats.

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GaWx said:
However, the good news is that the much less unreliable 11-15 12Z GEFS (vs the GFS op) retains its much colder than normal 2m temps. The 0Z EPS 11-15 is also colder than normal though not MB. My best guess? B but not MB. MB could still occur but is a riskier bet due to cold b.....never mind.....for a reason I won't get into now but also getting MB averaged out over a 5 day period is much less common than B per history. Getting a 5 day period averaging B with a couple of days of MB within is more common. Beside, the EPS has been the gold standard of late. If the EPS were to show MB, I'd likely go with MB.
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Bump for educational purposes, not for bragging. The goal is to help improve forecasts based on realizing what has repeatedly happened in the past and then posting about it. This is why Maxar constantly fades the colder GEFS and usually goes closer to the EPS. GEFS is pretty crappy.
 
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SD said:
Perhaps we should start a thread where we can discuss and reminisce about old storms.

Edit: I just started it. Its fine to bring up old storms to make a point, dispell rumors, use as analogs in the pattern threads. I would actually encourage everyone to use a past storm thread to show pictures you have, post snow maps, post 500mb/surface maps, post anomaly maps leading into a storm. It could actually become a great resource to reference this winter where we can link to that thread and posts in it and for folks to educate themselves on what it looks like synoptipcally before some of the greats.

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Thanks Shane, I appreciate doing that. ???
 
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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Does this go without saying the GFS has a bit of a cold bias in the extended range..?
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Look at where the model errored. Once again too much Pacific ridge leads to too much eastern trough. Its really not that much different than the issues with the old gfs where it became more and more northern stream dominant in time
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18z GFS, this may turn out to be something to watch on future model runs. It's too far out for my liking, just throwing this out there though. It was close of having a winter event, 10th-11th window.
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Im gonna throw this out for the new people and to remind us older folks. The ensemble mean is a conglomerate of all the individual ensemble runs. For instance in the long range, if a third of the runs has the system on the first, a third on the second and a third on the third, the mean will skew the trough on all three days when in actuality the trough may be only on the third.

That is simplified, but it gives an idea. A ensemble mean run showing mostly torch or cold in the long range may be the mean skewing the pattern over a week when it may only last a day or two.
 
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