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Pattern The Great December Dump

Not trying to call anyone out and I know there is excitement but let's remember that we have banter and whamby threads so we aren't cluttering the main thread.

Thanks


Additionally there isn't going to be a thread yet. We can discuss that idea late in the weekend if the models have something.

Finally be careful what you wish for here. The euro was about as strong as we can get without looking at a failure. If the models start consolidating energy and trending toward the euro we will have to be concerned it goes NW
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SD said:
Not trying to call anyone out and I know there is excitement but let's remember that we have banter and whamby threads so we aren't cluttering the main thread.

Thanks


Additionally there isn't going to be a thread yet. We can discuss that idea late in the weekend if the models have something.

Finally be careful what you wish for here. The euro was about as strong as we can get without looking at a failure. If the models start consolidating energy and trending toward the euro we will have to be concerned it goes NW
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May I start the thread when you or another admin/moderator gives me the authorization to do so? I'd like to plan out what day and what time the thread can be created in advance that way I can put some thoughts together for the thread.
 
WxWatch said:
May I start the thread when you or another admin/moderator gives me the authorization to do so? I'd like to plan out what day and what time the thread can be created in advance that way I can put some thoughts together for the thread.
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Sure, if the 12z runs Sunday have a legitimate threat go for it.

If they dont you can kick the can down the road to each 12/0z set.



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Myfrotho704_ said:
Icon is faster/weaker with it, probably be a miss, and hey I’m just analyzing it for fun that’s it
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It would take less work to change than it would the GFS’s solution, not bad a run, even with a miss
Edit: GFS ticked west through 48hrs

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Ollie Williams said:
It would take less work to change than it would the GFS’s solution, not bad a run, even with a miss


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Yeah, it’s close, if the SW was a bit slower then game on, I would consider that run as a step in a right direction, it wouldn’t take much to change It like you said
 
I’m not a fan of next week because I think most will be shutout with a cold rain. There could be some snow in the higher elevations but I’m not buying widespread ice that takes a unique setup which is somewhat rare when talking places like Atlanta, Charlotte or Raleigh. My confidence is very low for wintry weather but a small chance exists for now but I think mostly north of i40.
 
My main reason is the weather leading up to next weekend does not favor wide icing. After seeing Boone, NC struggle with accumulating snow with temps near 29 I highly doubt low elevations will see much ice where it matters (roads).
 
BirdManDoomW said:
My main reason is the weather leading up to next weekend does not favor wide icing. After seeing Boone, NC struggle with accumulating snow with temps near 29 I highly doubt low elevations will see much ice where it matters (roads).
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Boone struggled with accumulation because the moisture dried up. Roads were dry in Foscoe most of the day.
 
light Snow in NC, looks like a overrunning setup, this solution kinda came out nowhere but it was definitely a step towards the euro
 
Gfs is still so different from the euro tho, the trough still speeds up that SW a lot on the gfs while the euro is slower, and the gfs shows a ULL in the SW at around 180 while the euro shows something different, lol, and this energy is probably bout to do something on the GFS
 
Oh don’t look now 1049hp dropping down from Canada with precip starting to develop from the gulf looks though it might turn into a cutter
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_34.png
 
Hmm H5 is interesting on that one. If you could somehow lower those heights that'd end up providing a winter storm for more people than it did.

Edit: Sharpen the western ridge, move it back west and wala. Later in the run, that ridge just rolls right towards us.
 
I approve of this run of the GFS that low placement is solid for MBY......just need that changeover to snow to happen 6 hrs sooner....
 
Looks like this run of the GFS took some baby steps to what the EURO showed earlier. If these trends continue, a lot of folks in the western Carolinas and NE GA could be looking vcd at a major winter storm.

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