Pattern The Great December Dump

[Webberweather53]

The GEFS has no idea what to do over the conus in the extended.

 

[Jessy89]

Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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[NoSnowATL]

Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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Potential yes, cold enough air is the issue. As of now it looks like another great set up in the wrong month.


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[NoSnowATL]

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[ATLwxfan]

Storm tracks seem to suggest good wintery opportunities for the apps and interior NE. We thread the needle between feast or famine along the I-95 corridor. Looks seasonably cool but not wintery for most of us. In other words, a normal December.


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[Myfrotho704_]

RiMe IcE sounding

 

[Shawn]

Does anyone else not see the potential this has? Coastal low Check if that high pressure didn’t slide off and was a little stronger this could be golden. Plenty of time to change to something good right?


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That storm likely won't verify. 354 hours GFS..

 

[Myfrotho704_]

-NAO starting to appear around this time frame on the gefs, also that big cyclone around the Aleutians, even if the -NAO developes, it’ll at least keep things “seasonal”, not the worse pattern for overrunning, the EPS on the other hand looked warmer and shows the southeast ridge more and matches the MJO, i agree more with the EPS...

 

[Metwannabe]

Fortunately it's the warm biased eps and it's 2 weeks out.... #silverlining

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[Webberweather53]

-NAO starting to appear around this time frame on the gefs, also that big cyclone around the Aleutians, even if the -NAO developes, it’ll at least keep things “seasonal”, not the worse pattern for overrunning, the EPS on the other hand looked warmer and shows the southeast ridge more and matches the MJO, i agree more with the EPS...View attachment 26676

These anticyclonic wave breaks from underneath towards Greenland usually result in even stronger +NAOs in the long-run because the North Atlantic storm track is being shoved poleward, conservation of angular momentum results in an even stronger jet >>> stronger Icelandic low.

 

[Metwannabe]

I guess another somewhat positive is at least it's mostly Pacific air, so mild but not hot, as the SER is pretty much kept in check.

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[Rain Cold]

Really nice placement of features here:



And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

 

[Metwannabe]

Really nice placement of features here:

View attachment 26677

And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

View attachment 26678

Yeah the euro looks promising at 240 but when you roll the eps, pattern just too progressive. That pac ridge has no staying power beyond d10, but it's way out there so anything can certainly happen.

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[Webberweather53]

I guess another somewhat positive is at least it's mostly Pacific air, so mild but not hot, as the SER is pretty much kept in check.

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Patterns marked by a deep Gulf of Alaska vortex are often mild & stormy in areas like California, the Desert Southwest, & the Southeastern US.

 

[Rain Cold]

Yeah the euro looks promising at 240 but when you roll the eps, pattern just too progressive. That pac ridge has no staying power beyond d10, but it's way out there so anything can certainly happen.

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I've seen EPS images posted over the last couple of weeks showing extended periods of nice -EPO and also a turn to zonal in the LR. Maybe it will be right. I'm just saying, what was once thought to be a warm first half of December may not turn out that way. The CFS is certainly honking for a warm week 2, so we'll see.

 

[Metwannabe]

I've seen EPS images posted over the last couple of weeks showing extended periods of nice -EPO and also a turn to zonal in the LR. Maybe it will be right. I'm just saying, what was once thought to be a warm first half of December may not turn out that way. The CFS is certainly honking for a warm week 2, so we'll see.

My guess is up and down first 3 weeks, below normal followed by above to at or above.... I'm banking on somewhere around Christmas week a turn for the better. Just a wannabe guess

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[Rain Cold]

Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

 

[KyloG]

Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

View attachment 26679

Here’s this mornings run. The lack of blocking isn’t surprising but hoping that changes into Jan. Would be disappointing if we +block Jan/Feb with the favorable combination of solar/qbo/nino. Not sure what it’s going to take to have winter with blocking at this point.

 

[Webberweather53]

The CFSv2 forecast for December is going with 1-2C above normal




This would actually be considered a below average December if you only looked at winters after 2010-11.

#winning?

 

[Rain Cold]

Here’s this mornings run. The lack of blocking isn’t surprising but hoping that changes into Jan. Would be disappointing if we +block Jan/Feb with the favorable combination of solar/qbo/nino. Not sure what it’s going to take to have winter with blocking at this point.

View attachment 26681

Nice change. It's almost like the models are struggling. Wonder if that look will lock in and hold now?