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Pattern The Great December Dump

Rain Cold said:
Really nice placement of features here:

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And I guess we can go ahead and punt the first half of December, especially since toward the end of the month and into January, it's supposed to take a turn to colder. But the models better start to agree with the big sustained warm up inside 240 hours pretty soon, or we may have to punt the punt.

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Yeah we’ve been watching this for weeks now and the warmup keeps getting muted a little as we roll forward. The best part is watching people go in on warmth , then back off , then go back in on warmth. It’s a coin flip everyday with some


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Storm5 said:
Yeah we’ve been watching this for weeks now and the warmup keeps getting muted a little as we roll forward. The best part is watching people go in on warmth , then back off , then go back in on warmth. It’s a coin flip everyday with some


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While the upcoming pattern will be AN it will be much cooler than previous December’s. The general pattern from the previous 8 December’s has been one of the warmest patterns you could draw up. If we can avoid that I will consider that a victory.

I could see our temps for Dec being neutral with how wet it could be. Upper Midwest could really win the + departures.


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KyloG said:
Overrunning for the win. Pouring rain.

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Meanwhile on the other side
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Rain Cold said:
Here's yesterday's 12z EPS. Doesn't scream bitter cold and snowstorms, but I've certainly seen MUCH worse patterns rolling into the second half of December. Going to need that -PNA and SE ridge to start showing up soon.

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The EPS has been largely advertising this look since 11/26, maybe earlier. So it’s definitely a good period to watch and the first half of Dec isn’t written off yet. I’m still hopeful we get a few nice setups in Dec even if it’s largely just +1C above normal, that’s not bad. Close to near normal there. Ridges always tend to overwhelm troughs even if we get a few rolling through. Folks may think we need a ridge to dominate for the CFSv2 look and that’s simply not true.


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SD said:
Meanwhile on the other side
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If you could change the color scheme a little bit and bump the echoes on the eastern side north a tad, it would pass for a mid-winter correlation coefficient snapshot.
 
Jon said:
The EPS has been largely advertising this look since 11/26, maybe earlier. So it’s definitely a good period to watch and the first half of Dec isn’t written off yet. I’m still hopeful we get a few nice setups in Dec even if it’s largely just +1C above normal, that’s not bad. Close to near normal there. Ridges always tend to overwhelm troughs even if we get a few rolling through. Folks may think we need a ridge to dominate for the CFSv2 look and that’s simply not true.


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Yeah that's what I was thinking too. A degree or two above average could certainly yield a chance or two for some wintry weather. I like some of the things I've seen this fall so far. We'll see how things carry into winter. I'm not discouraged for December, as long as we're not consistently seeing an unending bad pattern set up -- the kind that takes weeks to get out of.
 
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So how long do we all think it is going to take to get the MJO to rotate back around to favorable 7 and 8?

Mid February ?
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Don't sleep on the system moving along the gulf coast on Friday. I believe it will shear out, but it could bring some wintry weather to the favored areas in western NC, if it stays strong enough.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
So how long do we all think it is going to take to get the MJO to rotate back around to favorable 7 and 8?

Mid February ?
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When you’re contending with a hefty Indian Ocean “standing wave”, you often end up with nearly stationary tropical forcing. Hopefully we take a break from it in January but even if we don’t at least by late January & February the resulting pattern from Indian Ocean convection doesn’t suck anymore
 
Fountainguy97 said:
48hr HRRR has some convective snow showers pretty far south

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I've been mentioning that rain/snow mix could reach pretty far south Monday AM on some of my previous posts. I wonder if it's possible that a thread will be made for this? Even though, this isn't looking like a big event but it's still snow outside of the mountains.

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WxWatch said:
I've been mentioning that rain/snow mix could reach pretty far south Monday AM on some of my previous posts. I wonder if it's possible that a thread will be made for this? Even though, this isn't looking like a big event but it's still snow outside of the mountains.

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I would think that you would need a pretty big storm system in order to create a thread. What's the point in creating a thread for something so minor ?
 
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