Yep, classic cyclogenesis on the base of a trough off the coast, wayyyy different setup, this disagreement vs other models is madness
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Yep, classic cyclogenesis on the base of a trough off the coast, wayyyy different setup, this disagreement vs other models is madness
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
And here we go with the sequel. GFS showed the potential first in the long range and then lost it. Euro comes on board today, and now the GFS is coming back in line. It has happened time and time again with the models and winter storms here.
Yep, interesting indeed.
Oh and the second threat the GFS is showing would coincide with the probable threat just after day ten on the 12z Euro.
Big western ridge plus PV lobe over the Hudson is game on signal for things to at least track.
You know there’s a whole world out there beyond I-40. I could see you sounding the “Wilkes and points north” in November and April but we are entering a climo favored time period where really anybody on this board can see frozen precipitation. It snows south of I-40 sometimes
mydoortotheworld
Member
December 8th, 2017 rocked Burns to his core. #NeverForget
GEFS out to hr 138 let’s see how this goes
I'm not sure what to think (yet) about that energy that comes flying in over the central Plains at 18z Friday that gives NC snow by Saturday. I think it's having difficulty with the vorticity, cause it seems like it's all over the place now. This is why I don't use just one or two models ?
Edit: Other than that random peice of engery that comes flying in, tonight's 0z GFS is on the right track.
Edit: Other than that random peice of engery that comes flying in, tonight's 0z GFS is on the right track.
CMC has some big changes too
I love 17-20.. like a night of really bad alcohol induced sexcapades.
I’m seeing a GEFS member with some frozen precip all the way down the northern Florida these are gonna be a crazy next few days seeing if this continues
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Major ice storm on CMC. Models moving toward euro
Yes, I'm going to create a YouTube channel, and the video's will only be available for us here at SouthernWx! I plan on uploading a video soon as possible.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
And let’s not forget, CADs are always undermodeled especially in traditional CAD areas.
The Canadian was throwing down heavy heavy precip and still managing to put down ice..woof worthy run there
Avalanche
Member
Looks to me like WAA wins out. Im a novice though.
Yeah that low the Canadian was showing was super amp’d..meh highly unlikely
Avalanche
Member
Wish the HP would lock in the CAD, but that LP just blows it away
Wow this only proves that the euro will probably be another fantasy run although maybe now it’s not so much a fantasy as it is a reality... also some models slowly showing what wxwatch was pointing out with the initial wave of possible snow
The models are getting there, the timing is off though with the storm system. I'm still going with overrunning, and then the main system kicks out sometime Tuesday evening/night, into Wednesday based from my prediction. But, according to the models, exact timing with the system is unknown.
FWIW, here’s the Ukie
GEFS snowfall maps for cities throughout the southeast
if map totals have higher totals than ollies map below it is likely due to frozen precip other than snow
if map totals have higher totals than ollies map below it is likely due to frozen precip other than snow
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Could you add GSO?
This seems to support a likely chance of some type of wintry weather in the south east next week ... lots of agreement on some amount and I’m sure there’s more ice runs too
Added
Ilovesnow28
Member
Can you add Tuscaloosa
Great googly moogly .. that’s about as devastating as it gets ...
We’ve come a long way gentlemen ... the time has come where we hit the calm in the storm ... just as a precursor to a tsunami the water retreats drastically .. the comments in December dump thread grow quiet as we all await the storm that is the 00z king euro and its ensemble members ... bracing for the pages of analysis by 2 am
Preliminarily, It’s looking slightly worse. More of a connection with the northern stream that takes its energy. It’s not north, but it may be flatter and less like a strong circular ULL.
00z. Still much better than the CMC and GFS though.
12z
00z. Still much better than the CMC and GFS though.
12z
Looks pretty darn close to me
This may be a big run.
Edit. Maybe not. Northern stream is slower. All about timing.
Edit. Maybe not. Northern stream is slower. All about timing.
Not this time. Only chance this storm has is if it hangs back.
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meh, game over: 
I only have povitol maps. Preliminary frontal passage looks similar to CMC. Might make an effort and bring something out of the gulf with some overrunning?
euro has a 1045 high pressure in Northern Virginia at hour 180 something has to go over top that thing
Euro is a ... rain storm ...
Minuscule changes. Underestimating the wedge? ???