I know others have mentioned this, but it really does look like that major warmups or torches keep getting pushed back. Last week at this time it looked like the first few days of December could really torch for the Carolinas. Now it’s looking like after today upper 60s for CLT, it looks pretty much average over the next 10 days.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
He must have forgotten about last years major sswe...that worked out great for the east.
SSWEs are like finding a magic wand on the ground and picking it up and waving it around. All you know is that it does stuff. But you actually have no idea what it will do. Same with all this SSWE garbage. Everybody has been dumpster diving in it since Judah Cohen's (face punch) SAI malarkey came out a few years ago. And we still barely have the first clue about what it will do.
We may not see temps shoot up into the 70’s but if your good with temps in the 50-60’s you will be happy. We don’t have a stout SER coupled with a stout Npac ridge to really elevate temps, atleast not yet. Plus, looks plenty wet, that will help mitigate daytime highs.
He mentioned January of 2019 in his Saturday Summary. The 2nd half of January of 2019 was, indeed, much colder in the SE than the very warm first half though not quite cold enough to bring the full month down right to normal. It still ended up 1 to 3 warmer than normal.
It did? The GEFS had had much colder than normal for 12/1-5 in the aggregate on a number of runs, which won’t verify though it will still include a very nice cold period. You’ll see posts about that in here. At one point, the GEFS had it quite cold for much of 12/2-8 though those very cold runs were a good number of days back. And even the EPS had a somewhat colder than normal 12/1-5 on its runs at the same time. But I do agree that no long torches are being shown through at least about the first 12 days of Dec although the EPS has been showing a pretty warm period starting right after and the first 12 or so days of December were never looking torchy.
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^^I've given up looking (and trying to understand) the indices for predicting LR forecast. It's still interesting to hear what folks think and I always like when they're forecasted to be favorable for a cold/storm east. But, just give me the LR operational model runs and I'll look outwards a max of 10 days.
Dealing with the short term temp anomalies: RDUs average high (for today) is 58 with an average low of 37. Today will probably end up 4 or so above normal, but the next 6 days will all be 4 or so below normal. So (at least) the first quarter of December will be below normal.
Dealing with the short term temp anomalies: RDUs average high (for today) is 58 with an average low of 37. Today will probably end up 4 or so above normal, but the next 6 days will all be 4 or so below normal. So (at least) the first quarter of December will be below normal.
Bump. Not picking on Kylo at all as he had his doubts about it actually getting this cold (I’m actually grateful he posted this), but am picking on the GEFS for way overdoing it as usual. It had 12/1-5 as very cold in multiple runs made around last weekend, including this run. The EPS at the same time was only modestly colder than normal and will end up pretty close.
I’m bringing this up because of a post today that mentioned it had been looking warm for the first few days of December. I said it never was looking warm and wanted to back up my assertion with evidence.
*Edited
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Bumping this because this Cad Wedge post will end up being right on.
There is a large winter storm...just further north.
It totally busted on the -EPO.
And you were correctly skeptical when you posted the very cold GEFS, regardless. Kudos.
Yeah I was talking about more about the 2nd week because I seemed to remember some looks in the ensembles of the SER starting to flex, which right now doesn’t appear to be the case. I know it’s seemed like the last few years whenever the SER has become an issue, it just doesn’t go away quickly.
Cape Cod is all of us
You got that right! Nobody knows what SSWEs will do and what the impacts will be. 500mb pattern maps in the extended range need to be used with extreme caution and not taken at face value.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Bamwx really hugging the GEFS thru the first part of Dec. Bold move cotton, let's see how that pans out for them
Him and JB are in the jacuzzi sloshing their brains out
whatalife
Moderator
Too bad he’s not a part of this great SE forum. If he was...he’d be well aware of the cold bias the GFS/GEFS has...
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The 12Z GEFS goes gaga with the W N American ridge around 192 (see image below), which later results in colder than normal in the SE US 12/11-13. No recent GEFS, EPS, or GEPS has had this strong of a western ridge for then, but as @Webberweather53 has just posted, it not surprisingly got the attention of BAMwx. I’m not posting this because I expect it to be right. I’m posting this to say “Be afraid, be very afraid” of GEFS runs showing very strong W ridges when other models don’t and to have this as bump material however bad or well it verifies. Although nothing is ever 100%, the many posters in the know here know how well this will likely verify (hint: see last weekend’s runs). Let’s see whether or not the 12Z EPS goes at all in this direction:
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He might be aware of it while still wanting to post it in the hopes it is somehow right since he has already said he doesn’t believe the warmer models.