Ethan80963!
Member
fwiw NAM also looks slower
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
No doubt there will be tons or back and forth but this has to be put in context. First, not all winter storms follow this pattern and second the GFS was showing something but it was an entirely different system, it was a cold front prior to this one so you can't really say the GFS has this first. Anyway the pattern was tricky moving forward and still is, models are tying to figure all of that out, so yep there will be all kinds of outputs between now and then, bottom line, at least the ingredients are there, will they meet? Time will tell.
Definitely like what we are seeing. I think it's still to early to call anything a trend now. Need to keep watching the GEFS for the ULL placement and how things has looked better for us. I expect this afternoon the whole board will be pleased with the euro suite.
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Today at some point, I'm going to post my own in "house" model as well as more detailed long posts/updates. If you have any questions about my in "house" model please feel free to ask. I work really hard to determine the best probable outcome at the highest accuracy level as possible. Even though, the way I approach things isn't at the "text book" scientific level, and that's why I get criticism from some, but that's okay. I'd say my predictions haven't been that far off.
I'm going with these predictions.
* I think the storm system will develop sooner, early as Tuesday night or sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
* Overrunning is possible initially before the actual low kicks out.
*I'm still going with a mostly snow event, and as I mentioned, it will be a tremendous amount of snow. Historical levels!
* The storm system will probably trend further south. The 6z GFS suite will be a run to work off of to watch for trends. The reason I think it will trend further south? For one, the end of the boundary will be over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Tropic of Cancer over the bay of Campeche. So, we could see a low develop in the lower latitude and strengthen as the low gains latitude. The track of low will of course, depend on the upper level winds.
A north trend is highly unlikely with a very strong surface arctic high pressure. Of course, the magnitude of the massive high pressure could be over - modeled. I'd say the air pressure will have a pressure of 1045 or so. Due to the strong high to the north, the storm system will likely amplify and slow. I have mentioned previously that it would be a fast mover, but I now have consideration for the system being a slow mover as well. Which, that factor will be inputted into my in "house" model.
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I'm going with these predictions.
* I think the storm system will develop sooner, early as Tuesday night or sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
* Overrunning is possible initially before the actual low kicks out.
*I'm still going with a mostly snow event, and as I mentioned, it will be a tremendous amount of snow. Historical levels!
* The storm system will probably trend further south. The 6z GFS suite will be a run to work off of to watch for trends. The reason I think it will trend further south? For one, the end of the boundary will be over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Tropic of Cancer over the bay of Campeche. So, we could see a low develop in the lower latitude and strengthen as the low gains latitude. The track of low will of course, depend on the upper level winds.
A north trend is highly unlikely with a very strong surface arctic high pressure. Of course, the magnitude of the massive high pressure could be over - modeled. I'd say the air pressure will have a pressure of 1045 or so. Due to the strong high to the north, the storm system will likely amplify and slow. I have mentioned previously that it would be a fast mover, but I now have consideration for the system being a slow mover as well. Which, that factor will be inputted into my in "house" model.
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WXinCanton
Member
Good see a threat still on the table. I will say that a 1052 HP will not verify in my opinion. Saving grace being if we get it in better position it won't need to be near as strong. Great to have something to keep on eye this early in the season. That's a win in itself in my book.
Cheers!
Cheers!
So your going to post a video sometime today???Today at some point, I'm going to post my own in "house" model as well as more detailed long posts/updates. If you have any questions about my in "house" model please feel free to ask. I work really hard to determine the best probable outcome at the highest accuracy level as possible. Even though, the way I approach things isn't at the "text book" scientific level, and that's why I get criticism from some, but that's okay. I'd say my predictions haven't been that far off.
I'm going with these predictions.
* I think the storm system will develop sooner, early as Tuesday night or sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
* Overrunning is possible initially before the actual low kicks out.
*I'm still going with a mostly snow event, and as I mentioned, it will be a tremendous amount of snow. Historical levels!
* The storm system will probably trend further south. The 6z GFS suite will be a run to work off of to watch for trends. The reason I think it will trend further south? For one, the end of the boundary will be over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Tropic of Cancer over the bay of Campeche. So, we could see a low develop in the lower latitude and strengthen as the low gains latitude. The track of low will of course, depend on the upper level winds.
A north trend is highly unlikely with a very strong surface arctic high pressure. Of course, the magnitude of the massive high pressure could be over - modeled. I'd say the air pressure will have a pressure of 1045 or so. Due to the strong high to the north, the storm system will likely amplify and slow. I have mentioned previously that it would be a fast mover, but I now have consideration for the system being a slow mover as well. Which, that factor will be inputted into my in "house" model.
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Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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A few more shifts W, and we will be seeing our friend, the SE ridge
packfan98
Moderator
I think the high is just moving slower from west to east. There's not much to block it. Slower "could" mean more cold air around during any potential storm.
Maybe im wrong here but we need a smidge of ridge to spark the fire? Too much and it rubs or cuts. Too little and *poof*? Not enough separation, *poof*. These thread the needle events usually pan out though so I’m not too worried..
smast16
Member
We keep seeing the models drop 1050+ HP's out of Canada with these big Arctic outbreaks in the long range, then as we get closer and closer, the High's aren't nearly as strong. Question, has a 1050+ HP dropping into the Dakota's EVER Verified?
A 1063 was recorded in Montana in the early 60’s..1078 in Alaska many years ago
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In most cases, especially beyond day 5, no but this is the one type of pattern that can produce beastly highs like that.
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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1899 had a 1063 , I think! That was feb , snow in key West. All we really need for ideal , strong CAD, is 1040 in NY
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's a much nicer looking pair of composite images that show what the continental-scale MSLP & z500 pattern looks like for cold air damming events in NC. This composite contains nearly 100 winter storms over more than 70 years of record.
Its modeled at 1052 now so it probably wont verify. But even a 1040 is enough to get it done. Last December was barely 1030 if I remember right.
This Freezing rain map on the 6z GFS for next week is absurd haha... Its not fantasy land timing but it's not within 5 days watching the high the cold air filter in all dependent definitely looks like a storm signature is there and in place for next weekend
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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We have the CMC on our side! Don’t know if it was mentioned
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 6z GFS was really close to the composite in a general sense. We want that southern stream shortwave to exit the southern Rockies & southwestern US by the time our trough over Atlantic Canada is entering the Atlantic to give us the perfect CAD high timing, too early & we're cold/dry, too late and we trend towards a lakes/OH valley cutter.
Sometimes models do well at picking out large scale events ... a big time event could have an imprint on a model making it easier for it to recognize something big is coming
Jon
Member
Today at some point, I'm going to post my own in "house" model as well as more detailed long posts/updates. If you have any questions about my in "house" model please feel free to ask. I work really hard to determine the best probable outcome at the highest accuracy level as possible. Even though, the way I approach things isn't at the "text book" scientific level, and that's why I get criticism from some, but that's okay. I'd say my predictions haven't been that far off.
I'm going with these predictions.
* I think the storm system will develop sooner, early as Tuesday night or sometime in the Wednesday/Thursday time frame.
* Overrunning is possible initially before the actual low kicks out.
*I'm still going with a mostly snow event, and as I mentioned, it will be a tremendous amount of snow. Historical levels!
* The storm system will probably trend further south. The 6z GFS suite will be a run to work off of to watch for trends. The reason I think it will trend further south? For one, the end of the boundary will be over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, south of the Tropic of Cancer over the bay of Campeche. So, we could see a low develop in the lower latitude and strengthen as the low gains latitude. The track of low will of course, depend on the upper level winds.
A north trend is highly unlikely with a very strong surface arctic high pressure. Of course, the magnitude of the massive high pressure could be over - modeled. I'd say the air pressure will have a pressure of 1045 or so. Due to the strong high to the north, the storm system will likely amplify and slow. I have mentioned previously that it would be a fast mover, but I now have consideration for the system being a slow mover as well. Which, that factor will be inputted into my in "house" model.
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Considering the GEFS mean is 1040 it’s likely over-modeled and a NW trend cannot be ruled out unless we get several runs of suppressed systems and even then I’m reluctant to rule out NW movements
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The sad thing is Ive seen storm systems show on ALL models only to disappear as we get closer.
I mean yes we’ve definitely seen those type of high pressures in past winters
Definitly a big sleet storm unbelieviable ratios and then freezing rain on top of it.
Jon
Member
We may be getting ahead of ourselves trying to track a system on the GFS operational. As it stands, there’s no “one system” here...there’s a pattern that can produce with a split flow.
Run to run variability and model to model variability continues and we simply don’t have any idea what this system will look like yet. No model has nailed down even a very general idea of a system or timing IMO. Hopefully that changes with 12z and 00z runs. Models usually catch on to big dogs we experience here in NC around day 9-10, not always but usually.
Run to run variability and model to model variability continues and we simply don’t have any idea what this system will look like yet. No model has nailed down even a very general idea of a system or timing IMO. Hopefully that changes with 12z and 00z runs. Models usually catch on to big dogs we experience here in NC around day 9-10, not always but usually.
Do it shred the wave? Leading to suppression
SnowNiner
Member
Agreed. The EPS looks like a cutter to me. So did the ukmet someone posted earlier. I'm not very optimistic about this one. I know above normal heights in the SE can actually be a good thing, but I'm not a fan. I think it's likely if a storm forms it cuts with the set up. And the high is out quick.
Ethan80963!
Member
GFS 4 run trend
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yea, the GFS in the short-range is clearly trending in a direction that's more favorable for a winter storm next week w/ increasing stream separation & a slower s/w over the western US.
I like where this is going.
I dont know is This high pressure going to be strong enough to push that storm further south on latest Gfs
Ethan80963!
Member
Now here's where the differences start
GeorgiaGirl
Member
12z GFS so far is handling the energy differently. Instead of remaining consolidated, it's broken off into 3 pieces.
Edit: Having said that it might still end up producing something but because of the ridging being stronger this will probably be less impressive than the 6z was (unsurprising as that was ridiculous...).
Edit: Having said that it might still end up producing something but because of the ridging being stronger this will probably be less impressive than the 6z was (unsurprising as that was ridiculous...).
This is something completely different, these are different threats, first one with that low off cali and second with this SW near Baja at 174
Ethan80963!
Member
Sorry had the 0z and 6z fixed it so now is the 6z and 12z
that won’t work 
Avalanche
Member
CAD is massive, and pushes storm out of the entire frame.
Nope hp high tailing it outta there, maybe a severe threat though?
That ridge needs tamed before we can consider this threat not to be a cutter. I wouldn’t rule out miller B but that is my best guess at this point. Not to mention no feature to hold our HP hostage. I’m feeling less good about this but I’m not at 0% yet
accu35
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Are you taking about first front or second? Tuesday/Wednesday?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Need the trough over Atlantic Canada to dig & slow more on the GFS, the mid-level ridge needs to be preferably a bit further north. All within the realm of possibility. Where the trends actually mean something inside 72 hrs, the GFS/GEFS are going in the right direction with the first system.