Yes that is correct. But I remember the ensembles looking way better many times last year and nothing happened. But a new year and different storm.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here comes a nice, fresh injection of arctic air.
Storm5
Member
This will work for Nc
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
nice 1038 CAD, 39/40 degrees at peak "heating" during the day with a storm approaching, its looking like its gonna be at night on this run which would only help, especially CAD areas
This looks like a NC special this round
better than the last run
need something to keep that high pressure a little bit longer, its rushing out of here now, still solid run regardless
Storm5
Member
What a great low track
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
Agreed. At least the track of the low is pretty classic for SE storms.
Somehow I jackpot this run
You gotta love that LP placement for NC tho
You gotta love that LP placement for NC tho
Storm5
Member
This run was much warmer for areas outside of NC vs yesterdays 12z run
The pac goes to hell on the Euro and cold air supply shuts off. Still a 1040HP in that spot you would think it would be a major ice storm but it's confined on the Euro to 85 west in NC. You had the pac on the GEFS with the Euro southern low track you would have something special.
So many things that are allllllllmost right for this. At least we've got somewhat more of a signal for something now
Still if you take a blend of both models.. CAD areas should actually start to pay more attention.
Personally I think the Op Euro is wrong for eroding the pac ridge as we've seen that before. But the GEFS is unbelievably cold...which we've all seen many many times.
But much colder than last night 00z run ... it’s a back and forth we have to analyze the general pattern if it supports winter weather or not
The second system may end up really nice as we get closer.
The Euro will be shot after shot with systems sliding down that massive western ridge. That 588+dm ridge likely will not be going anywhere quickly.
The Euro will be shot after shot with systems sliding down that massive western ridge. That 588+dm ridge likely will not be going anywhere quickly.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The Euro ensemble is trending heavily in our favor for a winter storm next week w/ increasing stream separation over the western US around day 4.
packfan98
Moderator
That looks great! Is there any way to keep our high pressure from escaping so quickly? Looks like the NAO will not be any help. No 50/50 either. I guess all comes down to perfect timing? That is so often the case.
106mph gust on Grandfather. 69mph in Ashe County and closed school due to damages.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah most Miller B events historically come down to timing, a -NAO coupled w/ a strong high-latitude North Pacific block can definitely help keep the high around longer by creating a traffic jam upstream over east-central Canada & New England. However, a strong -NAO in concert w/ a beastly -EPO is rare because the forcing mechanisms that create one of these patterns often destroy the other.
NCSNOW
Member
Let Me say it, cause it never gets old and always produces. I LOVE BIG TALL WESTERN RIDGES. Nothing trumps a sustained +PNA for the SE winter weather lovers.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,654
- Reaction score
- 10,791
Southernwx is for the southern areas
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Not surprisingly, the EPS mean went up substantially vs the previous run over CAD favored areas of NC, SC, & GA & we're basically back to where we were yesterday afternoon w/ the 12z EPS.
I like it.
From Kirk Mellish ...
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/rumors-rumors-rumormongering-and-hype/V1IqoIy58YdopaWGcsFi6J/
Most of us understand his rant and agree, but in the world of the weather board, all is fair. Good to have a place to discuss what is being shown. Personally, I enjoy the experts here who provide sound analysis and reasoning, with the understanding that no matter what, it is still a prediction of what might happen. It kind of gives us an inside track to what the public will know later.
I would suspect that most of us here are "that person" that friends & family look to for weather advice. In a sense, I would suggest that we should not go to extremes with those outside this world that we reside in ... even though we enjoy discussing those possibilities here. I was kind of surprised to see Glenn Burns (WSBTV Atl Met) post the pic on Facebook he did ...
Years ago he was very bullish on winter possibilities, then he got really conservative, and over the last couple of years has become a little more bullish ... perhaps competition or clicks?? Anyway, that far out to post that kind of map from someone like him may be a little irresponsible. On the other hand, perhaps it will get folks to pay closer attention to the weather in the upcoming days so they are not caught off-guard. I suppose you could argue either way. (Grocery stores appreciate it though!!)
Good luck to all as continue the best weather time of the year. Hoping you all get treated to winter weather at some point!!
https://www.wsbradio.com/weather/rumors-rumors-rumormongering-and-hype/V1IqoIy58YdopaWGcsFi6J/
Most of us understand his rant and agree, but in the world of the weather board, all is fair. Good to have a place to discuss what is being shown. Personally, I enjoy the experts here who provide sound analysis and reasoning, with the understanding that no matter what, it is still a prediction of what might happen. It kind of gives us an inside track to what the public will know later.
I would suspect that most of us here are "that person" that friends & family look to for weather advice. In a sense, I would suggest that we should not go to extremes with those outside this world that we reside in ... even though we enjoy discussing those possibilities here. I was kind of surprised to see Glenn Burns (WSBTV Atl Met) post the pic on Facebook he did ...
Years ago he was very bullish on winter possibilities, then he got really conservative, and over the last couple of years has become a little more bullish ... perhaps competition or clicks?? Anyway, that far out to post that kind of map from someone like him may be a little irresponsible. On the other hand, perhaps it will get folks to pay closer attention to the weather in the upcoming days so they are not caught off-guard. I suppose you could argue either way. (Grocery stores appreciate it though!!)
Good luck to all as continue the best weather time of the year. Hoping you all get treated to winter weather at some point!!
Ethan80963!
Member
With the EPS, Euro, GEFS and JMA my confidence keeps increasing for CAD areas and immediate areas around the normal CAD areas
packfan98
Moderator
WOW! That's a classic track with a 1041 High locked in perfect position. I hope we see more looks like this with all of the modeling. I'm curious on what the UKMET will spit out.
Is this thread for a specific event yet? Or still for general Dec weather discussion? If so, here's the nao forecast.. looks to maybe go neg second half of Dec:
Storm5
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is one of the few times I'm happy I'll be in Charlotte instead of RDU.
How about the midlands Webb we are in due for some kind of wintry weather.
Cadi40
Member
Question, what are some CAD favored areas, would Charlotte be one?
How good is the JMA with these types of things?
southernskimmer
Member
- Joined
- Dec 14, 2016
- Messages
- 62
- Reaction score
- 135
I moved to CLT in 2017 from GSO and boy, has it been tough (no)sledding.
gradients have been crazy these past few years (el ninoish gradients), literally no snow CLT-south, then it piles up and increases CLT-north (kannapolis/concord/huntersville/lake Norman) , basically 85 separating things, but that’s kinda expecting with these miller B storms we’ve had these past years
CLT/RDU are like 50 miles from GSO but GSO probably has received double the snow over the past decade. The triad area does really well...I grew up there and miss it in the winters.