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Pattern The Great December Dump

Myfrotho704_ said:
gradients have been crazy these past few years (el ninoish gradients), literally no snow CLT-south, then it piles up and increases CLT-north, basically 85 separating things, but that’s kinda expecting with these miller B storms we’ve had these past years
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I feel like I-85 seperates everywhere in the SE(or at least the South Atlantic States). The I-85 dividing line is super evident here in the Atlanta area.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
gradients have been crazy these past few years (el ninoish gradients), literally no snow CLT-south, then it piles up and increases CLT-north (kannapolis/concord/huntersville/lake Norman) , basically 85 separating things, but that’s kinda expecting with these miller B storms we’ve had these past years
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Lol mby is basically right on 85, so I've seen tons of sleet from being on the line.

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Well if we’re gonna talk JMA here’s its QPF map most of the QPF in the south is from this system btw.....looks good
51BC1A84-0B96-46DA-A495-3F9417348590.jpeg
 
I do want to mention a couple more things that bear watching with this system.
Take a look at the Vorticity (Energy in the atmosphere)
The blue one labeled main is the most important and what we are following now.
However, the 2 pieces, pink and light blue colored one are other pieces of energy that will help amplify, the storm "if" they phase. The Euro phases with them too late, although yesterday's phased early, hence the crazy run.
Specifics are very uncertain, but this will be interesting to watch, with the ingredients there.
ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-6108800.png
For giggles I have the EPS members for GSO, I will have the specialty graphic laterecmwf-ensemble-KGSO-indiv_snow-5547200.png
Edit: The GFS is looking better than the last 2 runs. Digs more
 
I like the position of this system over southern California
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This is basically what you want, drawing ain’t perfect, but I tried, you want separation from that big vortex, enough so that it wont get caught into the vortex, but not to much to where it slows down to much in the Southwest, this map is in between that and something you would want, which is separation, but still some flow to move it 0E89365A-B232-4E3F-90DE-B9CF707F7F9E.jpeg
 
CADEffect said:
The energy seems to look more separated from the northern flow this round.
5de795e0c86a84d325adfae42e180b20.jpg



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Lots of work to do, but we know the gfs and it’s issues, so it’s good it’s showing this at that range, but yeah it’s slowly, but steadily starting to make out a disturbance in the SouthwestBBF660B2-C0CD-4EC0-B7B5-C440BAAB3916.gif
 
As myfro mention the gfs looks like it's taking baby steps toward a ULL out on the SW but it's being suppressed to much
950b1959f446d9a2b4794ac15926de6c.jpg



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I noticed last year into this year. Gfs starts a system around the gulf the cuts. Gfs does this all the time. Shows a winter storm first then changes.


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It’s so funny how 2 runs ago we was suppose to have a possible winter storm around 13-14th now it’s severe weather.? I can’t with the Gfs??‍♂️
 
This is probably a given but all OP precip solutions should basically be ignored for the next few days, it will continue to flip flop from run to run for a while. What matters is seeing the ensembles continuing to show good trends at h5 and right now that's exactly what we're seeing.

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Solid potential for something to pop late next week for Deep south thru mid Atlantic. Nice suppression being shown on guidance, i'd just like to see more separation between the southwest us shortwave & longwave trough... along with of course more northerly/horizontal orientation of the frontogenesis along the gulf coast.
 
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