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Pattern The Great December Dump

Webberweather53 said:
Need the trough over Atlantic Canada to dig & slow more on the GFS, the mid-level ridge needs to be preferably a bit further north. All within the realm of possibility. Where the trends actually mean something inside 72 hrs, the GFS/GEFS are going in the right direction with the first system.
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Maybe just maybe the GFS up to it's old tricks being too progressive?
 
The ICON is showing overrunning that I have been mentioning. Speaking of the 12z GFS, I believe it's erroneous after hour 144. Some may think this possible winter storm is over, but it's not IMO. The low pressure system would be such a dynamic system, many variables/factors are at play. Sometimes these models don't know what to do with such a dynamic system to the point that data has errors. This is why every model needs human input.
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Day 12 setup looking good on the GFS for the upper south.
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metwannabe said:
Maybe just maybe the GFS up to it's old tricks being too progressive?
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Thus far, it's been verifying too progressive w/ this wave over the Pacific, that might be a plausible conclusion. I wouldn't read too much into operational model run trends beyond day 5-7 because they're oftentimes spurious unless their respective ensemble suites are following suit.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Thus far, it's been verifying too progressive w/ this wave over the Pacific, that might be a plausible conclusion. I wouldn't read too much into operational model run trends beyond day 5-7 because they're oftentimes spurious unless their respective ensemble suites are following suit.
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Web what are you looking for in the next few hours?


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One thing that is really seeming to lock in somewhat is that we are entering a colder period, and I think that's a very important step that we should be happy about. Just about every run on most models is now starting to pop up winter weather, even though it's in the long range, which kinda tells the story that we are entering a favorable time period/pattern for some sort of Winter weather in areas of the South. We are getting lock and loaded potentially right around Christmas time.
 
accu35 said:
Are you taking about first front or second? Tuesday/Wednesday?
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I'm referring to the first system here, if the s/w over California can dig more, it might detach from the parent trough axis and yield a solution similar to yesterday's 12z ECMWF. Obviously, we should keep in mind that we have more than one way to score in this pattern & imo there's definitely a chance (although small) we get multiple, legitimate threats for winter weather if everything goes in our favor the next several days.
 
CADEffect said:
Web what are you looking for in the next few hours?


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Only thing I'd really be paying very close attention to the next few suites regarding storm-specific details is the evolution of this shortwave trough that enters California in about 60-72 hours because these run-to-run trends will probably be representative of something real. We need to hope for a slower, stronger, & digging s/w to score right off the bat in this pattern later next week. What happens thereafter is almost impossible to discern with confidence at this point other than we know the general pattern is favorable for more than one storm.
 
packfan98 said:
Incoming Winter storm for NC CAD regions at hr 300. At the very least, we are not in a sucky pattern and there are some opportunities to score. During these times, operational and ensembles will have some colorful maps to look at...
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Robert West said:
One thing that is really seeming to lock in somewhat is that we are entering a colder period, and I think that's a very important step that we should be happy about. Just about every run on most models is now starting to pop up winter weather, even though it's in the long range, which kinda tells the story that we are entering a favorable time period/pattern for some sort of Winter weather in areas of the South. We are getting lock and loaded potentially right around Christmas time.
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Webberweather53 said:
I'm referring to the first system here, if the s/w over California can dig more, it might detach from the parent trough axis and yield a solution similar to yesterday's 12z ECMWF. Obviously, we should keep in mind that we have more than one way to score in this pattern & imo there's definitely a chance (although small) we get multiple, legitimate threats for winter weather if everything goes in our favor the next several days.
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Yes, multiple chances showing up on the models between now and the next 14 days. All you can ask for really is the potential that the models are showing. Hopefully, one of those opportunities will come to fruition.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Yes, multiple chances showing up on the models between now and the next 14 days. All you can ask for really is the chance and potential that the models are showing. Hopefully, one of those opportunities will come to fruition.
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There really isn't a clear picture but I'd say 1 chance at most blurred between multiple h5 changes. Nothing beyond day 10 is considered a signal IMO.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Only thing I'd really be paying very close attention to the next few suites regarding storm-specific details is the evolution of this shortwave trough that enters California in about 60-72 hours because these run-to-run trends will probably be representative of something real. We need to hope for a slower, stronger, & digging s/w to score right off the bat in this pattern later next week. What happens thereafter is almost impossible to discern with confidence at this point other than we know the general pattern is favorable for more than one storm.
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Agree 100%. We have to take this one storm at a time. It’s impossible to look 3 storms upstream because the first 2 will have major implications for what occurs behind.

One storm at a time! Models will continue to be all over the place with these storms until we get this first storm and front downstream of our atmosphere we can’t really look behind it
 
Webberweather53 said:
Going to need plenty more where this came from but the GEFS is ticking towards yesterday's weenie 12z Euro suite w/ our s/w over the southwestern US. If we can dig enough & fully separate from the parent longwave axis, it's game on.


View attachment 27095
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The great thing is, at least from a timing/waiting standpoint, is that we will know how well they are handling that within about 72 hours or so
 
Honestly though, we've seen these situations where models start spitting out winter storms, first at this hour or that hour, one system, then another, not that one but this one and usually it is very indicative of winter weather pattern and usually (not always) something does eventually pan out. Gonna be some tough days/nights ahead, ups/downs, but I'll be shocked if a good number on here don't see something wintry in the next 2 weeks or so.
 
metwannabe said:
Honestly though, we've seen these situations where models start spitting out winter storms, first at this hour or that hour, one system, then another, not that one but this one and usually it is very indicative of winter weather pattern and usually (not always) something does eventually pan out. Gonna be some tough days/nights ahead, ups/downs, but I'll be shocked if a good number on here don't see something wintry in the next 2 weeks or so.
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Yes, this is exactly what I was talking about when I said I have seen this movie before with the back and forth on the models. When this happens it is a very strong indicator that we're most likely going to get one to come to fruition in the next two weeks.
 
packfan98 said:
Incoming Winter storm for NC CAD regions at hr 300. At the very least, we are not in a sucky pattern and there are some opportunities to score. During these times, operational and ensembles will have some colorful maps to look at...
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I'm much more interested in Christmas week tbh but the ends of the ensemble runs aren't really agreeing

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Myfrotho704_ said:
this could work, tad bit slower and stronger vs yesterdays, lets see what it does as it heads east, ofc you don't want it to be to slow View attachment 27103
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Yeah I was thinking same thing, looks good so far but now watch it get bogged down in the SW....
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
uh that's a solid signal from the GEFS from now-240, wouldn't call that little ensemble support
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Myfrotho704_ said:
uh that's a solid signal from the GEFS from now-240, wouldn't call that little ensemble support
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Based on the panel's above I only see 3 of 20 with anything decent for most on this board. What am I missing?
 
Snowless & Grumpy said:
Based on the panel's above I only see 3 of 20 with anything decent for most on this board. What am I missing?
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The fact that this board is more than SC, there are threats on just about every member for portions of the SE
 
metwannabe said:
Yeah I was thinking same thing, looks good so far but now watch it get bogged down in the SW....
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yep, fine line here, either gets stuck with weak flow that will be very slow to push it out of the Southwest or like the GFS the SW gets caught up in the trough and flies, or get what you got yesterday on the euro where it slows and starts getting back into faster flow which creates the best setup we can find with this pattern
 
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