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Pattern The Great December Dump

GaWx said:
He might be aware of it while still wanting to post it in the hopes it is somehow right since he has already said he doesn’t believe the warmer models.
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I would hope he would be aware of the bias of the GEFS...Still not the smartest move on his part imo...


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It certainly does not look “torchy” for the first 7-10 days of the month, at least for my backyard. It looks rather seasonable really. But at the same time, there is absolutely no wintry threats in that period either. Here’s hoping for a Christmas miracle.
 
Euro still looks very interesting in the 9-11th period. If you want a snow threat in a very progressive pattern, that is what you want to see. Ridge over the western US, cold PV lobe over the Hudson with a s/w pushing through with one digging over the SW.
 
The 12z FV3 also isn’t really that far. It keeps the waves more phased and moving in unison. Need the western ridge to build and cause the secondary wave to dig and slow down.
 

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If this longwave pattern generally comes to fruition, it's one that is often a harbinger of significant severe weather over the lower MS Valley & SE US.

Large-scale negatively tilted trough centered over the central plains on the leading edge of a roaring Pacific jet coupled w/ SSTs in the Gulf & Western Atlantic that are above to well above average would set the stage for something interesting as we close in on the mid point of the month.

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GaWx said:
Pick your poison, folks. Lots of variety to choose from for 12/13/19 SE US temperature anomalies:

GEFS: solid below
View attachment 26739

EPS: slightly above
View attachment 26740

GEPS: above
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Meh, too far out to agree with anything. It could go either way. However, I do think the southeast will experience above normal for a few days around 12/13. The GFS has a storm signal around the 15th which is worth watching. Any storm system's mid month will differentiate those anomalies.

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12z Euro agrees with the 192 GFS re: the western ridge. And I really like not seeing the big SE pig ridge and all the cold air on the other side of the globe. Maybe not the ideal pattern for anything super cold or wintry, but it wouldn't take a ton of work to move things more favorably.

ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.png
 
Rain Cold said:
12z Euro agrees with the 192 GFS re: the western ridge. And I really like not seeing the big SE pig ridge and all the cold air on the other side of the globe. Maybe not the ideal pattern for anything super cold or wintry, but it wouldn't take a ton of work to move things more favorably.

View attachment 26744
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People forget the biggest snows come with very marginal conditions, example December ‘17.
 
As long as its seasonable in the winter with a few storms mixed in that's all in ask for. Tired of endless torching and smashing warmth records in winter. But, we all know what happens down here when the Arctic unloads. Cold and dry more often than not. So give me seasonable with an active pattern.
 
Still too far out for my liking, but this could get very interesting if this cold core ULL holds.
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