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Pattern The Great December Dump

SoutheastRidge said:
I would think that you would need a pretty big storm system in order to create a thread. What's the point in creating a thread for something so minor ?
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A thread don't have to be made. I just thought one would be made since models are showing snow outside of the mountains and that the discussion won't interfere with the December pattern discussion.

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Webberweather53 said:
Pretty classic nino pattern as one would expect from the huge Gulf of Alaska trough that shows up during the 2nd week of Dec. I’ll gladly take the rain after how dry the autumn ended up here
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Web, what do you see that might disrupt the December pattern in a favorable way? Throw us a bone....
 
The 12Z EPS has the SE US only 1-2 F warmer than normal for the first half of Dec...not bad at all. (see image below). If has slightly B to near N for 12/1-5, near N to slightly A for 12/6-10 with some chill interspersed, and A for 12/11-15.

Looking back at Decembers to 2014, they actually haven't been as warm in the first half as the 2nd half in general. Will 2019 finally break that pattern or not? Per the gold standard of ensembles, the EPS, there's no indication of that very late in its last 2 runs although there's plenty of time for that to change. Regardless, get out and enjoy the nice chill coming up in the first half of this week!

12Z 11/30 EPS: 1st half of Dececmen_12_2mtpdp_na_dr-0015_0015.png
 
GaWx said:
The 12Z EPS has the SE US only 1-2 F warmer than normal for the first half of Dec...not bad at all. (see image below). If has slightly B to near N for 12/1-5, near N to slightly A for 12/6-10 with some chill interspersed, and A for 12/11-15.

Looking back at Decembers to 2014, they actually haven't been as warm in the first half as the 2nd half in general. Will 2019 finally break that pattern or not? Per the gold standard of ensembles, the EPS, there's no indication of that very late in its last 2 runs although there's plenty of time for that to change.

12Z 11/30 EPS: 1st half of DecView attachment 26708
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Warm biased EPS looks pretty average..I don’t hate it. Thanks for sharing the map ??
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Web, what do you see that might disrupt the December pattern in a favorable way? Throw us a bone....
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One way I envision that we could really stir the pot sometime around early January or the very end of Dec would be to have a convectively coupled kelvin wave dislodge itself from the Indian Ocean standing wave at the same time a -NPO/-EPO flip occurs. This scenario would basically set us up w/ Siberian air being dumped into North America (thanks to the -NPO/-EPO) coupled w/ an active southern stream whose westerly momentum & moisture would be in large part supplied by the eastward moving CC Kelvin Wave. The very basic ingredients would thus likely be in place for a legitimate winter storm in the southern US. It's a hypothetical scenario yes but one we can certainly hope for way down the road. I don't see us getting anything substantial in at least the next 2.5-3 weeks, the momentum transports & corroborating response from the larger scale circulation attributable to mountain torque events typically take ~2-3 weeks to run its course. Henceforth, we're no less than 3 weeks away from even contemplating a -NPO flip
 
Webberweather53 said:
*find the most extreme example of cold following a SSWE & run away with it, even if this SSWE actually doesn't materialize in the first place*.
Smh what a clown

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Atleast we witnessed a miracle, and seen him have a warm winter outlook, now he’s back to the JB we know and love!?
 
The GEFS hasn’t been doing well in general down here in the E US. Why does he still give it credibility even after he acknowledges that it has been far too quick with a major strat warming? Has the EPS also been showing a major strat warming?
 
Tarheel1 said:
Atleast we witnessed a miracle, and seen him have a warm winter outlook, now he’s back to the JB we know and love!?
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It really wasn’t warm per se in the SE but just a little warmer than normal (+1 to +2 for the warmest in most of the SE I think, which would be as cold or colder than the last few winters), which indeed is warm for him. Also, he still had it quite cold further north if I recall correctly.
 
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