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Pattern The Great December Dump

honestly, you'll never see MRX as aggressive as this more than 5 days out:

Tuesday Night
A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Wednesday
A 10 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.
 
The 06z GFS has the major winter storm!
6126b80b79194472439cac7a26194b7e.jpg


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I think we're definitely in tracking mode. Even RAH is now keeping an eye on the possibility:

<from their LR discussion>
It appears a turn to sharply colder weather should occur around
Tuesday night or Wednesday. The longevity of the chill and whether
another system brings precipitation, possibly into the colder air
late week are in question. Some lower to mid 20s for lows
may arrive by Thursday or Friday.
 
Is this an current obs thread too? The wind has been crazy over 60mph. Maybe that will help prior to any icing. 3647B7E9-00B7-4D8A-BA70-8271C6CA78D0.jpeg
 
67 mph recorded in Boone too. A huge miss by the NWS to not go with a High Wind Warning. 421 in Wilkes was literally on fire all night with powerlines down and closed.
 
Jessy89 said:
6z gfs is a epic history making ice storm. One that would be a major threat to human life. That’s no joke it would cripple communities
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The good news is that I would rather see it at this range vs 24hrs out. Odds are it will trend warmer or less severe than that run. Plus I noticed a heavy rain event prior to this storm which could be “skewing the models focus” one way or the other (IMO likely the temps).
 
Jessy89 said:
6z gfs is a epic history making ice storm. One that would be a major threat to human life. That’s no joke it would cripple communities


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How many times have we seen this and heard that over a model run. Most ice we have had was around an inch or so back in 90s. We were out of power for 8 days and trees down everywhere. However we all survived. GFS is most of the time over hyped and for ice especially. Hopefully that doesn't happen even though we are due
 
In quiet a bit of shock to see all the damage with sunrise. That was the worst night of sleep ever.
 
Jessy89 said:
6z gfs is a epic history making ice storm. One that would be a major threat to human life. That’s no joke it would cripple communities


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One that will be gone by 12z. A time frame to watch no doubt but that just ain’t happening.


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Nick_boynton_ said:
About as classic as a winter storm can be around here.. most likely this is a big front end thump scenario followed by a crippling ice storm. I think by now we definitely have a storm time period to look out for on modeling ... fire up the thread????
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No thread until Sunday and that’s if things continue like they are going


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Hopefully everyone still remembers the snowfall shown on TT is always off. This is a Mid Atlantic and high country set up with the low placement. snku_acc.us_ma (1).png
 
I will say it is nice to have a storm signal there. As others have said before, it always comes down to timing. We need that NS to clear and then the SS swing through after. Has to be in that order or nothing but rain or a storm that cuts west.
 
Here's a completely worthless GFS ZR map
zr_acc.conus.png

Most of the Carolinas' ZR doesn't fall till after this time frame, but the PW ZR maps only go out to 240
 
It appears to me we are totally reliant on a very narrow cad signature that quickly errodes away. Would rather have a cold air souce/feed. As another poster said, looks to be an interior mid atlantic storm with early onset wintry precip for areas further south who happen to be in that narrow swath west of the GSO/Triad region.
 
Avalanche said:
It appears to me we are totally reliant on a very narrow cad signature that quickly errodes away. Would rather have a cold air souce/feed. As another poster said, looks to be an interior mid atlantic storm with early onset wintry precip for areas further south who happen to be in that narrow swath west of the GSO/Triad region.
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We don't know any of this yet. It is way too early to make any assumptions about the strength, width of the CAD dome or who will impacted by said storm esp when there's a legitimate possibility that one may not materialize at all.

The only information we know with confidence at this juncture are:

1) the pattern is favorable for a winter storm
2) if a storm does occur, it's likely going to be a Miller B/CAD event
 
We know how it is with watching model runs over the years. 6z and 18z have only very little data ingested unlike the 12z and 0z, especially past a certain timeframe. Grossly overdone. We have to be patient guys. Pattern too progressive imo. We will keep an eye on it though.
 
We'll probably know by Saturday (ish) whether or not this is actually going to be a legitimate threat.

Our system of interest is sitting off the Northern California coast atm & the short-term GEFS trends have been going in our favor and towards the European suite w/ a slower wave in the short-range. If this continues, eventually this favorable trend will propagate forward in time & rear its head at day 3-5 when our wave is over the SW US
gfs-ens_z500a_namer_fh24_trend.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
We'll probably know by Saturday (ish) whether or not this is actually going to be a legitimate threat.

Our system of interest is sitting off the Northern California coast atm & the short-term GEFS trends have been going in our favor and towards the European suite w/ a slower wave in the short-range. If this continues, eventually this favorable trend will propagate forward in time & rear its head at day 3-5 when our wave is over the SW US
View attachment 27068
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It's very important to keep an eye on short-range trends like this inside day 2-3 because they're far more likely to represent reality vs a "trend" at day 5-7.
 
SD said:
Not trying to call anyone out and I know there is excitement but let's remember that we have banter and whamby threads so we aren't cluttering the main thread.

Thanks


Additionally there isn't going to be a thread yet. We can discuss that idea late in the weekend if the models have something.

Finally be careful what you wish for here. The euro was about as strong as we can get without looking at a failure. If the models start consolidating energy and trending toward the euro we will have to be concerned it goes NW
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To add to this as we are now seeing a potential threat and traffic is picking up, we will attempt to move post that are banter to the appropriate threads but during model runs especially, when this place is jumping, post will probably get deleted without much if any notice. It gets time consuming to move post, so I just ask you to think before you post, if it's banter put it in the appropriate thread please and don't take it personal if post disappear. As always thank you for flying with Southernwx, enjoy the ride.
 
metwannabe said:
To add to this as we are now seeing a potential threat and traffic is picking up, we will attempt to move post that are banter to the appropriate threads but during model runs especially, when this place is jumping, post will probably get deleted without much if any notice. It gets time consuming to move post, so I just ask you to think before you post, if it's banter put it in the appropriate thread please and don't take it personal if post disappear. As always thank you for flying with Southernwx, enjoy the ride.
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I just moved 14 posts to the whamby thread. Think before you post folks. If you have a funny reply that you are dying to post, hit the +quote button and post it in the whamby thread. For those who repeatedly post banter in this thread, you will be locked out of it for a week.
 
We definitely have a strong storm signal for next week. Going to be a lot of back and forth the next few days with the models. Remember, the GFS showed the potential first in the long range. Then it lost it, and the Euro started showing it yesterday, and then the GFS jumped on board again. And now when the overnight Euro run wasn't as impressive, the GFS looks more impressive. I think the back and forth is actually a good thing this far out. We usually see this happen when we have serious potential for a winter storm before the models start to narrow down a solution a couple of days out.
 
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