Tarheel1
Member
Don’t sleep on December! You might miss some cool rains, and maybe some cold ones!
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Whatever rains we get it sure looks to be plenty of it to come.Don’t sleep on December! You might miss some cool rains, and maybe some cold ones!
If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.
Tarheel1
Member
Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
Tarheel1
Member
He’s been a bit under the weather lately, really!
Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.
Chazwin
Member
Maybe someone on here with more knowledge than me can answer this, but when was the last time that the southeast ridge has been held in check this long. It seems like it hasn’t been as big a player in the overall pattern for the last month and I don’t recall anytime over the last few years that could be said. It’s shown up on some ensemble runs around the 10-12 day period but goes away closer to verification
Ethan80963
Member
- Joined
- Dec 3, 2017
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ICON looks interesting
RollTide18
Member
A reminder that parts of Alabama got a foot of snow in December two years ago, while the month as a whole may not be cold & stormy or have a perfect pattern, it only takes one instance of all the ingredients mixing together for someone to score.
Jimmy Hypocracy
Member
Pretty good snowstorm up towards Detroit
Golf7575
Member
0zgfs is probably an outlier, but it shows a 1050mb high coming down the plains. Highs in the teens in my area would be rather chilly.
What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? 
Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. 
Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. Golf7575
Member
It went poof young manWhat happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs?
. I would take 1-2 inches snow all winter and be content all winter. We are further south than most places.
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I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.It went poof young man
Golf7575
Member
It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.
Jimmy Hypocracy
Member
Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anywayWhat happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs?
Jimmy Hypocracy
Member
Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetime
Ethan80963
Member
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- Dec 3, 2017
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- 1,066
GEFS mean seems to have expanded again refuses to back down
SETNwx
Member
SETNwx
Member
yep matches the GFS at this time, transient -NAO aswell, beautiful ridge poking up towards the poles, these patterns are very close for something wintry in the SE us when it comes to overrunning as that “SE ridge” gets shoved eastward, now before that pattern looks a little interesting for severe
Something is telling me December is about to switch up on us real quick ... for anyone thinking it was going to be a blow torch .. this could knock anything like that from happening
Wow, warm 850s that far north from the strength of that ridge around AK, and while it’s not in the SE, that’s some impressive cold in Canada/northern US, even if it doesn’t make it completely here and that first interesting setup fails, if you get a big artic high up in the NE with right timing as that cold air advects east, things get interesting, ofc it’s one run but it’s a good run and a very interesting one
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Day 10 Euro ends w/ a an aptly timed southern stream shortwave running into a huge arctic airmass in the E US. If this run played out a few more days, it would probably be an I-40/64 special.
Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.
SETNwx
Member
hmm. LOL