The Great December Dump

[Tarheel1]

So you think we get skunked for December?

Don’t sleep on December! You might miss some cool rains, and maybe some cold ones!🦅

 

[KyloG]

Don’t sleep on December! You might miss some cool rains, and maybe some cold ones!🦅

Whatever rains we get it sure looks to be plenty of it to come.

 

[ForsythSnow]

At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.

 

[Tarheel1]

Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB

 

[Rain Cold]

So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?

 

[Tarheel1]

So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?

He’s been a bit under the weather lately, really!

 

[BirdManDoomW]

Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB

Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.

 

[Chazwin]

Maybe someone on here with more knowledge than me can answer this, but when was the last time that the southeast ridge has been held in check this long. It seems like it hasn’t been as big a player in the overall pattern for the last month and I don’t recall anytime over the last few years that could be said. It’s shown up on some ensemble runs around the 10-12 day period but goes away closer to verification

 

[Ethan80963]

ICON looks interesting

 

[RollTide18]

A reminder that parts of Alabama got a foot of snow in December two years ago, while the month as a whole may not be cold & stormy or have a perfect pattern, it only takes one instance of all the ingredients mixing together for someone to score.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

ICON looks interesting
View attachment 26857 View attachment 26858

Pretty good snowstorm up towards Detroit

 

[Golf7575]

0zgfs is probably an outlier, but it shows a 1050mb high coming down the plains. Highs in the teens in my area would be rather chilly.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? 🤣 Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. 🤦🏼‍♂️

 

[Golf7575]

What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? 🤣 Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. 🤦🏼‍♂️

It went poof young man🤷‍♂️. I would take 1-2 inches snow all winter and be content all winter. We are further south than most places.

 

[Meteorologist1999]

It went poof young man🤷‍♂️. I would take 1-2 inches snow all winter and be content all winter.

I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.

 

[Golf7575]

I know it would be that’s why I don’t be living my life from run to run.

It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? 🤣 Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. 🤦🏼‍♂️

Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anyway 🤷🏼‍♂️

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.

Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetime

 

[Ethan80963]

GEFS mean seems to have expanded again refuses to back down

 

[SETNwx]

 

[SETNwx]

 

[GaWx]

The 0Z Euro is doing an impersonation of an FV3 tall western ridge.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The 0Z Euro is doing an impersonation of an FV3 tall western ridge.

yep matches the GFS at this time, transient -NAO aswell, beautiful ridge poking up towards the poles, these patterns are very close for something wintry in the SE us when it comes to overrunning as that “SE ridge” gets shoved eastward, now before that pattern looks a little interesting for severe

 

[Nick_boynton_]

Something is telling me December is about to switch up on us real quick ... for anyone thinking it was going to be a blow torch .. this could knock anything like that from happening

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wow, warm 850s that far north from the strength of that ridge around AK, and while it’s not in the SE, that’s some impressive cold in Canada/northern US, even if it doesn’t make it completely here and that first interesting setup fails, if you get a big artic high up in the NE with right timing as that cold air advects east, things get interesting, ofc it’s one run but it’s a good run and a very interesting one

 

[Webberweather53]

Day 10 Euro ends w/ a an aptly timed southern stream shortwave running into a huge arctic airmass in the E US. If this run played out a few more days, it would probably be an I-40/64 special.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting

 

[Webberweather53]

Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871

Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.

 

[GaWx]

Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871

Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.

 

[SETNwx]

Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.

hmm. LOL