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The Great December Dump

ForsythSnow

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At this stage, I'm not focusing on 850 temps or surface temps. Right now, it's in the upper-level trend stage. Whatever happens in the upper level's will differentiate what happens at the surface.

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If the temps aren't remotely close why even bother looking at it? If it was in the 30s then maybe but 50s can't change easily without uprooting the entire pattern modeled.
 

Rain Cold

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So did DT ever do a final winter outlook? Or did he just tease it and then pretend that he never said anything about it? Maybe he wants to get through December and do it for calendar winter only?
 

BirdManDoomW

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Trim your trees and your roof! WxSouth is starting to go cooler on his winter thoughts, I believe. Saying who cares about December, but 2 out of 3 winter months will be below normal, not sure on which 2! Posted on FB
Robert has really went downhill lately. Can’t believe he posted that over inflated snow map for the mountain event that just occurred on his FB. And he says things like 6-8 warm weeks are not likely....umm idk about most of y’all but I’ve never seen that long of a heat wave in the winter here. He needs money badly.
 
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Maybe someone on here with more knowledge than me can answer this, but when was the last time that the southeast ridge has been held in check this long. It seems like it hasn’t been as big a player in the overall pattern for the last month and I don’t recall anytime over the last few years that could be said. It’s shown up on some ensemble runs around the 10-12 day period but goes away closer to verification
 
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What happened to the wintry solution from 18z Gfs? 🤣 Gfs doing GFS things for another winter. 🤦🏼‍♂️
Well..only since you asked. Surface was not wintry at 00z, however 18z was a total train wreck looking at H5. 00z actually has some features indicative of southern snow. Just nothing blue and colorful on surface maps...oh yeah, and it’s only 288 hours away..but here I am talking about it anyway 🤷🏼‍♂️ BBC65819-17BD-4609-B1F7-315A1D66425E.png A4A69962-C332-4D99-8C65-AF2D802A2EE0.png
 
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It isn't always the case, but a rule of thumb is if the euro shows it, start getting excited for possible winter storms.
Euro gave me 32” of snow inside 200hr last December..I don’t trust any model..Hell I don’t even trust the radar..I sat under dark blue returns for 9 hours two years ago and looked out my bedroom window and watched it rain all night..wounds heal but scars last a lifetime
 

Myfrotho704_

It’ll make its own cold air
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The 0Z Euro is doing an impersonation of an FV3 tall western ridge.
yep matches the GFS at this time, transient -NAO aswell, beautiful ridge poking up towards the poles, these patterns are very close for something wintry in the SE us when it comes to overrunning as that “SE ridge” gets shoved eastward, now before that pattern looks a little interesting for severe C69E4EF3-4A79-42CA-85A5-D2349C3B9C0C.png D89CD205-8D0E-4B65-9252-FBB058E767FF.png
 

Myfrotho704_

It’ll make its own cold air
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Wow, warm 850s that far north from the strength of that ridge around AK, and while it’s not in the SE, that’s some impressive cold in Canada/northern US, even if it doesn’t make it completely here and that first interesting setup fails, if you get a big artic high up in the NE with right timing as that cold air advects east, things get interesting, ofc it’s one run but it’s a good run and a very interesting one 2316A83C-6E28-47DA-81A5-9F31290E847E.jpeg
 

Myfrotho704_

It’ll make its own cold air
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Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting F98FF557-96F1-408D-B930-237A4B9A12BF.gif
 
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Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871
Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
 

GaWx

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Gefs has been interesting with that transient ridging around Greenland aswell, at this point it would help shove that big cold vortex more south which has been a trend, note that split flow signal with a active STJ, bad news is that the WAR is definitely there, not hurting much for now, EPS should be interesting View attachment 26871
Regarding the bolded, the 0Z EPS has officially given up the ghost, folks.
 
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Hard to dislike that configuration going into mid-December where the pattern was leaning mild for a while, perhaps for reasons I noted yesterday the GEFS will beat the EPS to the punch here in the extended. December NINOs that are BN around here usually find a way to produce a substantial winter storm in central NC in Dec, if we keep this up, eventually we may score one.
hmm. LOL
 
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