• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern The Great December Dump

NCSNOW said:
Greensboro So Far ;

November ended up being -4
December we are currently -0.7 for the young month

Snowfall: Seen a hand full of flakes. 0 accumulation
Click to expand...

Yes, we sure haven't had any prolonged torches since November. Maybe a brief warm up that lasts 2 or 3 days, but that's it. Hope the rest of winter can stay normal to below normal.
 
WxWatch said:
I also want to note,

Of course, my predictions are all based off of a technique I use that has a fairly good accuracy rating. I know some totally disagree with my predictions and malign the way I approach what is being shown on these models, which is fine. This forum is all about sharing our thoughts and analysis, and I like my analysis to have profundity. If some really like my posts, and if they're all hyped about it (like you mentioned) let them ride the hype train. That's what weather forecasting/predicting is all about, the joy and the exhilaration, whether if the prediction is right or wrong.
Click to expand...
If you use such a specific technique, please do tell. We are also a forum that wants to share good information and not become a troll cave that the other place has become over the years. Misinformation is also something that I don't feel comfortable letting stand here. Being definitive at this time out is very closely correlated to other hypists on social media who saw one overblown GFS run. It's a lot better to be realistic and balance reality with modeled outcomes. Take past experiences and known large-scale biases such as the GFS's progressive one and incorporate it into looking at runs.

With that said, the GFS did take a short step in the right direction at 500 mb. The trough is still a mess, but it's come further SW. If you want snow, we have to get rid of that cutter look. To do that, the trough needs to dig deeper and we only have 6 days to trend it in such a direction. If anyone has the 500 vort on the euro that would help to compare with the GFS as well. 0Z seemed to look better than many prior runs. See if 12Z holds too.
 
WxWatch said:
I also want to note,

Of course, my predictions are all based off of a technique I use that has a fairly good accuracy rating. I know some totally disagree with my predictions and malign the way I approach what is being shown on these models, which is fine. This forum is all about sharing our thoughts and analysis, and I like my analysis to have profundity. If some really like my posts, and if they're all hyped about it (like you mentioned) let them ride the hype train. That's what weather forecasting/predicting is all about, the joy and the exhilaration, whether if the prediction is right or wrong.
Click to expand...
Just curious too, what is your technique and do you have those accuracy ratings?
 
WxWatch said:
I also want to note,

Of course, my predictions are all based off of a technique I use that has a fairly good accuracy rating. I know some totally disagree with my predictions and malign the way I approach what is being shown on these models, which is fine. This forum is all about sharing our thoughts and analysis, and I like my analysis to have profundity. If some really like my posts, and if they're all hyped about it (like you mentioned) let them ride the hype train. That's what weather forecasting/predicting is all about, the joy and the exhilaration, whether if the prediction is right or wrong.
Click to expand...

Can you please share with us how you score your accuracy rating scale? How do you define fairly good accuracy for yourself?
 
Lovely
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
As usual, those snow totals are probably too high. Verbatim it looks like a front-end thump; followed by freezing rain before ending as rain. Past experience says the front-end thump is short-lived. But all of this is pure conjecture at this point.
 
there's the difference, the GFS is so slow with the southern stream energy and still has the SW near the Baja at that time vs the euro having it approaching the SE at around 192, Euro is basically exactly what you want, that SW following behind that big trough with it causing suppression and still good CAA = winter storm, GFS solution means it would take to long and it would have a better chance of cutting with maybe some minor ice at the beginning
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top