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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
1st call map

5e36eb11f37a7093240cd66051ab622d.jpg



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Looks familiar....

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metwannabe said:
So let me see if I'm close here... take the model with the best upper air pattern, the model with the coldest temps and the model with the highest qpf, throw it all in the mixer and voila a blizzard?

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Add a pinch of. aM, then BAM
 
NoSnowATL said:
1st thing my wife asked me when I got home was

Hey baby I hear we are having a ice storm next week.
Me: who said that?
Wife: people on Facebook.
Me: baby it’s Facebook
Wife: so is it true?
Me: it’s over a week out and it was one run. Tell your Facebook people to relax.
Word travels fast these days....I have had 3 people text me about this “ ice storm”. Going to start charging them for my awful forecasting guesses.


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Tim Buckley tweeted this, relatable?DCECE063-91C6-4CEB-993B-0C03AEA13B67.jpeg
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I know its early but here are some of my early predictions:

Birmingham: 18"
Atlanta:14"
Chattanooga: 22"
Greenville: 16"
Macon: 4" snow with 1" sleet/zr
Charlotte: 15"
Columbia: 6" with 1/2" ice/zr
Nashville: 10"
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I’m guessing these are rain totals? Time to hoist the flood warnings
 
SoutheastRidge said:
I know its early but here are some of my early predictions:

Birmingham: 18"
Atlanta:14"
Chattanooga: 22"
Greenville: 16"
Macon: 4" snow with 1" sleet/zr
Charlotte: 15"
Columbia: 6" with 1/2" ice/zr
Nashville: 10"
Click to expand...

Haha I’m laughing seeing Greenville with 16 inches. Not gonna happen thanks for the laugh


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BHM with 17”- 25” of snow?;)

WxWatch said:
I really wish I had my own computer model that uses my technique, I know that's not possible. So I have to generate the "model" manually using paint programs. I've been thinking of ways to add more elements to my "model" such as air pressures, thickness values, 850 temps. as well as surface temps.

So the snow depth will depend on the surface air temps. According to the GFS, the surface temps will be in the upper 20s to lower 20s midnight Wednesday. By looking at this chart and comparing the air temp and QPF, you can see there would be high snow amounts adding up. Of course, some snow would melt, but if the snow is heavy enough, it will overcome the ground temp. I know the timing is off between the GFS temp surface map and the Euro QPF. The reason being, again I think the Euro is off 24 hours with the storm system.

View attachment 27016

View attachment 27017

This is a good snow chart, save it for reference!

View attachment 27018
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