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Misc Fall - End of 2019 Whamby

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NoSnowATL said:
So nothing for SC, Ga or Bama? I don’t like him. I guess we are out of his viewing Area.


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Remember last December when JB was forecasting our big storm to trend North. How did that turn out :rolleyes:. Consider yourself lucky that death hasn’t kissed you yet. Lol.
 
WxWatch said:
After spending time looking over data and coming up with thoughts I have came up with a prediction. This is not a forecast, it is a prediction which this prediction has a good chance at verifying. I have not backed down for days now. Keep in mind, I use a blend of models (not just one, or two, or three) to generate my predictions.

Using a blend of the Euro, GFS, CMC and the GEFS/EPS this is what I have came up with (map below) I think the Euro is 24 hours too slow with the storm system. So, instead of the low developing Wednesday into Thursday, I think the storm system will begin to develop Tuesday and track along the Gulf coast and out along the southeastern coast by dawn Wednesday. Why? because the polar and STJ is going to converge Tuesday afternoon/evening, at that point, the low pressure will develop quickly and start tracking along the fast moving jet streak over night Tuesday into Wednesday. At the time of the convergence, overrunning is possible Tuesday evening before the low kicks out and rides along the fast moving jet.

The low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, due to the convergence of the polar and sub-tropical jet, thus will increase jet streak winds high as 140kts. Even though, the low pressure system will likely be a fast mover, I do think it will bring tremendous amounts of snow totals because there will be strong convection in the upper-levels. The strong convection would be caused by, of course strong vertical motion due to the convergence of the polar and STJ. Which of course, strong convection would mean high QPF amounts. Not only that, the cold air mass will be immensely deep, colder it is, the higher the snow ratios will be.

More about the map, a mesoscale high pressure may build over the northeastern US overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning. For area's east of the mountains, p-type will greatly depend on how much WAA will take place. But, overall, I think this system will bring mostly snow, and heavy snow at that.

View attachment 27002

Euro showing high QPF levels, this would be a tremendous amount of snow. Again, the reason of high QPF levels is due to the strong vertical motion in the upper level that will induce strong convection cause by the convergence of the polar and STJ.

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Anyone that has access to the upper-levels from the Euro, such as the jet stream winds, vort, please add. We need to see what's going on with the jet streams/vort on the Euro. Also, due the polar and STJ convergence, I think the storm system would be stronger than modeled on the Euro.
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CyclonicFury said:
I think living in the Midwest has made SoutheastRidge too optimistic. Those snow totals for the southeast are extremely rare.
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Oh no doubt. Those are '93 numbers there, hence my little giffy posts.

I am one of the biggest snow weenies around but I know that ain't happening. Unfortunately I no very little to post in the real threads so I just post my little gifs and sarcastic thoughts here in the whamby thread.

This is all in good fun and mean no disrespect to WxWatch or anyone else. They are the reason I come here and learn, I can only offer a little fun and distraction to the sometime frustrating hunt for snow in the SE.
 
Seems as though the Euro passed its weenie off to the 6Z GFS! Now GFS is king! ???????
 
Tarheel1 said:
Seems as though the Euro passed its weenie off to the 6Z GFS! Now GFS is king! ???????
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Don’t you know! First the GFS shows it, then the Euro, then the NAVGEM, then the JMA, then the ICON? Then the NAVGEM loses it only for the storm to come back to the Euro. Always in this sequence.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don’t you know! First the GFS shows it, then the Euro, then the NAVGEM, then the JMA, then the ICON? Then the NAVGEM loses it only for the storm to come back to the Euro. Always in this sequence.
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First local met to mention it..... Go!
CJ
 
mrdaddyman said:
Even the worst model in the world knows where the rain/snow line is supposed to be:

View attachment 27065:
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and to add insult to injury we are on the SE edge this far out, you know the NW trend is real and lurking right around the corner
 
packfan98 said:
I just moved 14 posts to the whamby thread. Think before you post folks. If you have a funny reply that you are dying to post, hit the +quote button and post it in the whamby thread. For those who repeatedly post banter in this thread, you will be locked out of it for a week.
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You do fine work sir...
 
metwannabe said:
You do fine work sir...
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Thanks. You're not so bad yourself. I hate feeling like a bad guy sometimes. However, the math teacher in me knows that if you don't practice the right way on a daily basis, you won't do it right on test day either.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
Don’t you know! First the GFS shows it, then the Euro, then the NAVGEM, then the JMA, then the ICON? Then the NAVGEM loses it only for the storm to come back to the Euro. Always in this sequence.
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I know you're trying to be funny as usual and mock me, but if you actually stop trying to be sarcastic all the time you would realize that the back and forth happens a lot when we have a strong storm signal.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know you're trying to be funny as usual and mock me, but if you actually stop trying to be sarcastic all the time you would realize that the back and forth happens a lot when we have a strong storm signal.
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Well at least the sarcasm was posted in the correct thread. With that being said y'all are walking a fine line between being funny and personal attacks, be wary of those too. Thanks
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know you're trying to be funny as usual and mock me, but if you actually stop trying to be sarcastic all the time you would realize that the back and forth happens a lot when we have a strong storm signal.
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It's not that you are necessarily wrong, but you say the same thing over and over and over. Every year. Just like the sarcasm annoys you, the constantly saying the exact same thing over and over and over and over is silly and annoying to others. You can make a good point once or twice. People are smart enough to understand it.
 
Imo the whamby thread is like the political thread, in that, it is very topic specific and if you don't want to see/read it then you don't have to view the thread. Don't like politics, stay out of the political thread, don't like sarcasm, stay out of the whamby thread
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know you're trying to be funny as usual and mock me, but if you actually stop trying to be sarcastic all the time you would realize that the back and forth happens a lot when we have a strong storm signal.
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To be fair, H5 has no consistency whatsoever. Usually the back and forth you speak of is small compared to what we are seeing with this potential system. The setup and flow keeps changing every 2 runs. While I admit we are getting closer, there is a lot that needs to happen to get something wintry.

As a side note, not everything is directed at you specifically. If anything, the sarcasm right now is directed at the idea of certainty of a massive snowstorm with little backing it up. Not everything is personal. If its directed directly at you and is persistent or over the top we as moderators can stop it. At the same time try not to provoke anyone. This goes for everyone really. If we do see a system arise out of this we are going to get stricter on what goes where and sarcasm on main threads will be deleted or moved as mentioned previously.
 
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