I'm going to analyze all of the 12z data and see what I can come up with. Give me some time, I'll have a detailed post within the hour.
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Pattern The Great December Dump
- Thread starter Rain Cold
- Start date
Wouldn't exactly call this "ensemble support" from the GEFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Notice when you compare our upcoming pattern to the Miller B composite that trough east of Atlantic Canada in the composite digs & becomes negatively tilted (thus implying it's also slower).
There's certainly nothing wrong with what we have on the Euro here, but notice how the trough over Eastern Canada axis is further west and more progressive vs the composite, meaning that the southern stream wave timing will have to be that much more precise to generate a similar classic, wintry CAD response & we might have a tighter window to work w/. There's plenty of time to resolve these smaller-scale details, but things like these do matter here imo.
Ethan80963!
Member
EPS Snowfall mean
Snowfall mean through hr 240
Snowfall through end of the run
Snowfall mean through hr 240
Snowfall through end of the run
Wouldn't exactly call this "ensemble support" from the GEFS
While I’ve been posting those myself, I wouldn’t pay as much attention to the precip maps, there definitely fun when they show something tho, but anyways the GEFS has been improving with that HP in the NE over time, only issue is at H5, it’s speeding up the PV lobe a bit, west coast ridging/-EPO is weakening a bit, and weak ridging here in the SE is trying to become a issue, it’s still alright ATM but we don’t need anymore ridging/AN heights, also note where that SW is near Texas/NM/AZ, basically in between the euro and GFS
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The timing of these large-scale features on the EPS are pretty close to ideal for a southern slider/Miller B event & their placement is nearly identical to the 12z ECMWF, still a very long ways to go however.
Legs?
Legs?
I can’t believe our first legit fantasy storm is being brought to us by the king EURO ... makes you think something like this could have some legs to it... I would also have people notice how interesting the end of the euro model actually is as well ... looks ominous for another storm to come up the pipe
I find it funny ... you know there’s been a fantasy storm depicted when you come back to 3 unread pages in the December dump thread ?
ForsythSnow
Moderator
I'm still not sold on anything yet, but we definitely are closer to something than we were yesterday. We need consistency of models. The timing is a day or so apart, which makes me already skeptical between the GFS and Euro, so this may be a one and done run. I want to see 3 more days of runs before I draw anymore conclusions.
Classis GFS v/s Euro battle. GFS is quicker with the southern energy and wraps it up with the deep trough, Euro leaves behind and thus a southern wave forms after cold air in place. Both have known biases here but this is a day 5 deal and one of these models is largely better at this range.
Jessy89
Member
The new Gfs at 6 will be interesting I hope
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Yep it’s a win having the more progressive model showing nothing at this point..surely the Euro can’t be wrong at this range two December’s in a row..
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Welcome to the party, Euro. If we do get a storm next week, I think it needs to be noted the GFS showed the potential first in the long range, and the Euro would be falling in line.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Also think it's a good sign that this storm didn't pop up on the Euro until now at 8 days out versus showing something 14 days out.
BHS1975
Member
High too far east for RDU
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
For now
It would be crazy if there were 3 major winter storms in 3 straight Decembers. It used to take a miracle just to get even a light winter event in December.
FWIW for a storm 8 days away, a large signal on the EPS. Huge increase!
GSO. I think this is the snowiest run all season, besides for our Anafront storm the day of.
00z
12z
GSO. I think this is the snowiest run all season, besides for our Anafront storm the day of.
00z
12z
After last year I don't blame you. If models don't give up the strength and placement of the HP, we will be talking about this potential for a while.