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Pattern The Great December Dump

Poimen said:
As usual, those snow totals are probably too high. Verbatim it looks like a front-end thump; followed by freezing rain before ending as rain. Past experience says the front-end thump is short-lived. But all of this is pure conjecture at this point.
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Yeah, it all goes to rain. That HP is booking it out of here. Oh, and I see the WaCo/JoCo cutoff is still alive and well this winter:

EURO_PType_US_19-12-04_12Z_FHr210_WM.png
 
The HP placement pushed far east, and the LP placement indicates to me that this would be front-end quickie and not sustainable as cold air would quickly erode away. Hope I'm wrong. However, if that's the case, that should still illicit some excitement for December.
 
Yea the 12z Euro run in a large scale sense is a very classic southern slider look w/ a big -EPO/SE Canada vortex & active southern jet. Timing is everything in this pattern. The placement of the surface features is directly related to the planetary-synoptic scale troughs & ridges and their associated CAA + confluence. The Euro run's timing w/ the southern stream wave emerging from the SW US right as the big SE Canada vortex begins to lift out is what you should be rooting for. Delayed southern stream wave = HP moves out too quickly & vis versa.
 
geez, models are gonna struggle with the southern stream badly these upcoming days,all we know is this pattern has potential especially if something kicks out the southwest right after that big cold PV lobe is in SE canada
 
SD said:
You know this ends up meeting in the middle. Decaying arctic air mass with the parent high going ots means a few people start as a few sleet pellets or snow flakes and go to rain quickly. That initial band of iso precip locks in the wedge, the tmb gets stuck east of 95 and most of nc is locked in at 34-40 with 850s of +10 so we get an elevated band of storms rolling through with areas SE of RDU making a last second push to 55-60

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Bump... you're welcome boss
 
Poimen said:
As usual, those snow totals are probably too high. Verbatim it looks like a front-end thump; followed by freezing rain before ending as rain. Past experience says the front-end thump is short-lived. But all of this is pure conjecture at this point.
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If the model is right about the initial cold air and placement of the +1040 high (even if temporary), we could get a longer duration of ptypes changes. Just looking at our area, it shows dew points of ~zero before the precip moves in. And many times in these types of setups, CADs are not properly modeled. Not saying we're going to get a big storm (yet), but what the euro shows could be a great storm.
 
FallsLake said:
If the model is right about the initial cold air and placement of the +1040 high (even if temporary), we could get a longer duration of ptypes changes. Just looking at our area, it shows dew points of ~zero before the precip moves in. And many times in these types of setups, CADs are not properly modeled. Not saying we're going to get a big storm (yet), but what the euro shows could be a great storm.
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Yep sometimes those front end thumpers can over perform too, that's a decent HP in the NE not gonna lie....
 
ForsythSnow said:
If you use such a specific technique, please do tell. We are also a forum that wants to share good information and not become a troll cave that the other place has become over the years. Misinformation is also something that I don't feel comfortable letting stand here. Being definitive at this time out is very closely correlated to other hypists on social media who saw one overblown GFS run. It's a lot better to be realistic and balance reality with modeled outcomes. Take past experiences and known large-scale biases such as the GFS's progressive one and incorporate it into looking at runs.

With that said, the GFS did take a short step in the right direction at 500 mb. The trough is still a mess, but it's come further SW. If you want snow, we have to get rid of that cutter look. To do that, the trough needs to dig deeper and we only have 6 days to trend it in such a direction. If anyone has the 500 vort on the euro that would help to compare with the GFS as well. 0Z seemed to look better than many prior runs. See if 12Z holds too.
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My technique that I came up with can get very complicated, but I have the ability to use the technique, because I discovered it myself and I understand how my technique works. I say my technique has about a 60% - 80% accuracy rating. Most of the time, I do not use the Euro as the base model, why would I do that if the Euro has a good accuracy score? I mainly use the GFS as the base model and work off of it. However, I may use a different model as my base model, it could be the Euro or the CMC, or a combination of both and or other models.

It depends on which one I use as the base model, if it has a realistic possible outcome first before any other model, I use that model as the base model. So yeah, I use a blend of all models, regardless which models have a reduced accuracy score. So, my technique can vary depending on what data is being shown on the models. Using a blend of models is just part of my technique.

My predictions is based off of my opinion, experience, skills and the unique technique I use. It may sound like I'm misinforming because I'm putting out my own predictions that no model is showing. But, a weather forecaster does not have to base his/her predictions based off of what is being shown at face value on these models. My advise is to any weather forecaster, input your knowledge/skills and use a technique that works for you alongside model data.
 
WxWatch said:
My technique that I came up with can get very complicated, but I have the ability to use the technique, because I discovered it myself and I understand how my technique works. I say my technique has about a 60% - 80% accuracy rating. Most of the time, I do not use the Euro as the base model, why would I do that if the Euro has a good accuracy score? I mainly use the GFS as the base model and work off of it. However, I may use a different model as my base model, it could be the Euro or the CMC, or a combination of both and or other models.

It depends on which one I use as the base model, if it has a realistic possible outcome first before any other model, I use that model as the base model. So yeah, I use a blend of all models, regardless which models have a reduced accuracy score. So, my technique can vary depending on what data is being shown on the models. Using a blend of models is just part of my technique.

My predictions is based off of my opinion, experience, skills and the unique technique I use. It may sound like I'm misinforming because I'm putting out my own predictions that no model is showing. But, a weather forecaster does not have to base his/her predictions based off of what is being shown at face value on these models. My advise is to any weather forecaster, input your knowledge/skills and use a technique that works for you alongside model data.
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I can get down with that, right or wrong, if you got your own way of doing things, I can respect that. I guess we find out this Winter how legit your technique is. Good luck buddy!
 
That is exactly why you cannot throw out systems such as this as I said last night. Now probably now what happens is the PV will slow and shear the mess out of the s/w but it’s a good example on why you cannot say this cannot happen.

Now this is a exciting as well. I want that look. When you have a 591+dm ridge building on the west coast, it’s game time.
 

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Not to be that guy, but does anyone have a graphic on temps during the event? I want to see how cold our rain would be here in the Midlands if this was to happen. Lol
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
there's the difference, the GFS is so slow with the southern stream energy and still has the SW near the Baja at that time vs the euro having it approaching the SE at around 192, Euro is basically exactly what you want, that SW following behind that big trough with it causing suppression and still good CAA = winter storm, GFS solution means it would take to long and it would have a better chance of cutting with maybe some minor ice at the beginning
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Think GFS has a known bias of holding lows around Baja too long!
Man, that Euro look is amazeballs! And even if it’s 6-7 days away, I love having the modeled frozen precip, well to my south! Allows some breathing room
 
Arcc said:
That is exactly why you cannot throw out systems such as this as I said last night. Now probably now what happens is the PV will slow and shear the mess out of the s/w but it’s a good example on why you cannot say this cannot happen.

Now this is a exciting as well. I want that look. When you have a 590dm ridge building on the west coast, it’s game time.
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Systems have been way wetter than modeled a lot this fall. So even if it was shown to shear out in future runs, it could easily come back?
 
See if I can pull off my best @Rain Cold impersonation....

While this potential threat is 8 days (roughly) away some of the mechanisms needed to make this a possibility might start tipping their hand in just 5 days. Look below at yesterday's 12z euro op run with attention on the Pac ridge and also very little ridging up towards Baffin Bay
1575487765730.png

Today's euro run below shows much taller pac ridge and also notice slightly more ridging nudging up towards Baffin Bay.. let's see how this materializes over the coming days but definitely step in right direction. Still nothing to really anchor that HP in the NE as of now
1575488063522.png
 
fwiw the CMC has moisture in central NC and SC that has frozen precip at hr 216

But the energy in the west looks interesting
Screenshot 2019-12-04 at 2.38.03 PM.png
 
whatalife said:
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Lights out!


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yea no thanks!
 
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