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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

The HRRR did well with the last threat so we’ll see tomorrow. I’m not buying the NAM.


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With limited computer analysis, I can report massive SSE inflow from Orange Beach directly off the Gulf!!!! This just feels “ominous”. IMHO


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3km nam indicates a lot deeper of a low than the LR HRRR. And more of a broken line which would increase the tornado risk. Doubt this happens but something to watch. And also see how high dew points can make it and instability.
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0z models don't look very impressive to me. I just feel that the morning junk is gonna get in the way, and storm mode will be very messy. Maybe some straight line winds for sure, but will be surprised to hear multiple tornadoes.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Anyone got some analysis on NC threat for Friday?
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Messy storm modes, VBV, meh critical angles, low topped supercells/QLCS, best backing of the winds over central/eastern Nc supporting a tornado risk there, damaging winds threat due to a strong LLvl jet and storms tapping into that dragging the strong winds downward + dry air aloft, not much has changed
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Messy storm modes, VBV, meh critical angles, low topped supercells/QLCS, best backing of the winds over central/eastern Nc supporting a tornado risk there, damaging winds threat due to a strong LLvl jet and storms tapping into that dragging the strong winds downward + dry air aloft, not much has changed
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Thanks! Looks like spc will probably keep enhanced for day 2 then
 
oh now it gets interesting lol and not for hail at all

next county over :rolleyes:

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
FOR DENTON COUNTY...

At 1140 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Denton, moving
east at 45 mph.

This is a very dangerous storm.

HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Denton Airport measured 73 MPH winds around 11:35 PM.
 
Anyone have any insight as to what central Georgia will be looking at?

Local mets mention that there is a chance of strong to severe storms with wind, hail, and brief isolated tornadoes but no mention of timing, intensity, or any other important info.

Mostly wondering if I’m looking at a nocturnal threat or if the bad stuff will hold off until morning.
 
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First time I've seen a sounding like this. The 3km NAM is showing pockets in the LLJ where the winds exceed 80kts in Eastern NC Friday evening.

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This sounding was taken from the bright yellow spot near Jacksonville. The 850mb winds are widespread 70-85kts across Eastern NC and checking soundings the 925mb winds appear to be in the 60-65kt range with pockets much higher than that in or near any storms.

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IMO the main threat with this one is going to be strong winds, especially over Eastern NC where the winds only 1,000 feet up are howling at 60-65kts on guidance. There won't be much instability to work with, I'm thinking around 1,000-1,500 during the day but it also won't take much to bring these strong winds down to the surface. With the saturated ground we have this will enhance the threat as trees will be more susceptible to being blown over. Not to mention our local NWS offices are saying winds will be gusting in the 30s to near 40 before the storms even arrive Friday afternoon/evening.
 
Also one of my favorite tools to use to pick out areas that have the highest risk of severe weather is the updraft helicity tool. I've found this pretty useful for events like this especially where a line of storms may develop. The HRRR is highlighting a very strong line of storms in central to northern AL/MS.

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Looks like most models break the line apart as it gets into central sections of NC. Even the latest NAM is unimpressive. That's not to say that there won't be any wind reports, but I'm starting to wonder if we'll actually see an organized squall line moving through. The RAH AFD is impressive and the expansion of the Enhanced Risk area by SPC is noteworty, but virtually all of the models backed off of the intensity of the line through central NC. It reorganizes east of 95. If this continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC back off on the Enhanced Risk somewhat in the next Day 2 outlook.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like most models break the line apart as it gets into central sections of NC. Even the latest NAM is unimpressive. That's not to say that there won't be any wind reports, but I'm starting to wonder if we'll actually see an organized squall line moving through. The RAH AFD is impressive and the expansion of the Enhanced Risk area by SPC is noteworty, but virtually all of the models backed off of the intensity of the line through central NC. It reorganizes east of 95. If this continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC back off on the Enhanced Risk somewhat in the next Day 2 outlook.
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They’re almost definitely not going to back off the day 2 outlook just based on cam evolution at this stage, it would be more of a concern if we were actually on the day of the event and had actual obs to confirm or deny the NAM and hrrr forecasts.
 
Rain Cold said:
Looks like most models break the line apart as it gets into central sections of NC. Even the latest NAM is unimpressive. That's not to say that there won't be any wind reports, but I'm starting to wonder if we'll actually see an organized squall line moving through. The RAH AFD is impressive and the expansion of the Enhanced Risk area by SPC is noteworty, but virtually all of the models backed off of the intensity of the line through central NC. It reorganizes east of 95. If this continues, I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC back off on the Enhanced Risk somewhat in the next Day 2 outlook.
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Yeah it seems to me most models are focusing the line getting going east of 95 and central NC is skipped as a result. Once we get fully in range of the HRRR we should get a better picture, it showed a pretty nasty line moving through Charlotte at the end of it's 6z run.
 
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