Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

[sigwx]

New update from the SPC seems to be moving east in Alabama.

 

[Webberweather53]

Just like the last few setups, the warm sector in this storm will be unstable and largely uncapped which favors merges and a hot mess w/ crapvection eating up CAPE before the primary forcing arrive. Aside from vbv showing up in some CAMs just above 1km (which is suggested to have a bigger impact than vbv well above 3km), there's certainly several other wrinkles in this forecast that may easily preclude much in the way of discrete, supercelluar modes &/or tornadoes here in NC. Straight line wind damage is likely going to steal the show here anyway

 

[Myfrotho704_]

At this point I’d take it, bring on the VBV, I don’t want any chance at tornadoes, it looks like eastern NC has a better shot at more discrete convection and a better chance at more insulation owing to more CAPE

Just like the last few setups, the warm sector in this storm will be unstable and largely uncapped which favors merges and a hot mess w/ crapvection eating up CAPE before the primary forcing arrive. Aside from vbv showing up in some CAMs just above 1km (which is suggested to have a bigger impact than vbv well above 3km), there's certainly several other wrinkles in this forecast that may easily preclude much in the way of discrete, supercelluar modes &/or tornadoes here in NC. Straight line wind damage is likely going to steal the show here anyway

 

[Zander98al]

The more I see STP on the CAMs the more I believe its too easily contaminated by convection to be useful.

Still a ripe environment if a storm can isolate itself though. But after the last event i see what you mean.

 

[TXTornado]

cloudy in Dallas. HRRR moves the lone supercell west instead of over the metro, but spawns another one to our SE. Not going to chase given both are a drive.

 

[Brent]

cloudy in Dallas. HRRR moves the lone supercell west instead of over the metro, but spawns another one to our SE. Not going to chase given both are a drive.

Yeah I'm not too impressed here either

Cap still looks pretty strong on the 18z sounding too

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Still a ripe environment if a storm can isolate itself though. But after the last event i see what you mean.

Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I think EHI 1KM is better

 

[Zander98al]

Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I

Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I think EHI 1KM is better View attachment 19124

Looks to be more of a damaging wind threat tomorrow. Ehi at 1km for determining the potential of strong tornadoes?

 

[Zander98al]

SPC is holding off on a moderate risk area i would imagine for damaging winds.

 

[snowlover91]

This is the strongest run yet of the 12km NAM for the LLJ over Eastern NC. This sounding near Jacksonville, NC is showing 70kt winds only 1,000 feet above the surface as a squall line moves through.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I really dont know how to feel about this event. I have been pretty skeptical of it doing much of anything besides wind threat, but then seeing the long range HRRR makes you think twice. I'm still very skeptical, but would still recommend to be weather aware.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

I see early morning convection turning this thing into a mess for the areas tomorrow. I havent really payed attention for the Carolinas.

 

[TXTornado]

Latest HRRR ramps down the supercell threat in N. TX

 

[Zander98al]

Wbrc fox 6 in birmingham have damaging winds at the highest threat level they can go for tommorow. ?

 

[TXTornado]

The northern most storm out west of Ft. worth is trying to rotate.

 

[TXTornado]

Just went severe warned. Good flying eagle.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

View attachment 19130
Just went severe warned. Good flying eagle.

I saw that CU field earlier and assumed things were about to initiate, and look at that, big hailers likely

 

[TXTornado]

I saw that CU field earlier and assumed things were about to initiate, and look at that, big hailers likely

Why are they staying so skinny?

 

[Zander98al]

NWS of Bham says any uptick in instability will ramp up tornado potential. In there new discussion.

 

[TXTornado]

Why are they staying so skinny?

Is it that the wind field are just ripping them apart?