• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Thinking it'd be possible to chase two areas within a quick drive: Around Ennis, TX and in the RR Valley near Durant. Tight window though.
 
Stp is very high across the gulf coast, could see a strong tornado or two if a cell becomes semi-isolated. Damaging wind from a squall line or bow echo's also look plausible. PDS sounding from mobile county 2019041618_NAMNST_059_30.64,-87.34_severe_ml.png
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Zander98al said:
Stp is very high across the gulf coast, could see a strong tornado or two if a cell becomes semi-isolated. Damaging wind from a squall line or bow echo's also look plausible. PDS sounding from mobile county View attachment 19091
Click to expand...

This sounding has some* VBV, I’m not really decided on that subject as there’s some proof that it doesn’t do much but some proof that it can, IDK lol, but the nam 3km has very messy storms modes right here, more of a QLCS, still need watch for any storm that can manage to fire out ahead the line
 
Last edited:
Myfrotho704_ said:
This sounding has lots of VBV, I’m not really decided on that subject as there’s some proof that it doesn’t do much but some proof that it can, IDK lol, but the nam 3km has very messy storms modes right here, more of a QLCS, still need watch for any storm that can manage to fire out ahead the line
Click to expand...

Fwiw, this LR NAM sounding near Charlotte Friday night is just insane lol. Convection fires right underneath the surface low which tracks up the I-85 corridor leading to a very favorable environment for tornadoes. ???

Obviously long ways to go w/ this event and wind is most likely gonna end up being the primary threat but still if the surface low forms east of the mountains and backs the surface winds, then we could be in bad shape.

nam_2019041618_081_35.14--80.68 (1).png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Fwiw, this LR NAM sounding near Charlotte Friday night is just insane lol. Convection fires right underneath the surface low which tracks up the I-85 corridor leading to a very favorable environment for tornadoes. ???

Obviously long ways to go w/ this event and wind is most likely gonna end up being the primary threat but still if the surface low forms east of the mountains and backs the surface winds, then we could be in bad shape.

View attachment 19092
Click to expand...

Yeah I was just looking at that, a lot of SFC winds coming from the SE in parts of NC, worried already lol, sweetgum in my backyard has been making a weird sound and it’s root system is exposed, last thing it needs is damaging windsECEFCB70-92FD-4516-BE67-2DDD5985F5B2.png
 
This can’t be good.

454d1f90f5500d2875de91a28292a2df.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
BHS1975 said:
This can’t be good.

454d1f90f5500d2875de91a28292a2df.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Yeah just looking at the nam sim reflectivity it has all kinds of things going on friday. Starts with a few shallow rotating cells early in the day with the S flow off the atlantic to a couple of isolated supercells in early to mid afternoon to the main show in the evening. Then Saturday looks like one of those days with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms around that produce a lot of small hail

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
long range HRRR has a lone supercell in a environment by itself tomorrow. In a pretty high STP zone. If
a supercell or two gets by itself might produce a strong tornado over texas
HRRRSE_prec_radar_026.png
 
So, why hasn't the title of the thread been changed? This looks like more than a one day threat.
 
Our threat for severe in GSP area, is going down due to the timing of the frontal passage being in the morning, per local mets, rainfall not looking that heavy either. Widespread.5 or less.
 
Reading mhx it doesnt sound like its gonna take much to get those LLJ winds to the surface. It sounds like it's a situation where the stronger the shower or storm the worse the wind but any shower or storm will get the winds down.
 
metwannabe said:
Already SPC has enhanced for Friday.... oh boy
fa941f865b29ade9a5a7ec97c71ba504.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Lol the NAM 3km near CLT, gets a hail threat mixed in there aswell, wind whipped hail ?! Also has little backing of SFC winds from the SE aswell, promoting a tornado threat, that high PWAT is gonna help drag down stronger winds from that LLvL jet 559149F7-1F08-4594-9047-2A6782360F44.png
 
Thanks for the thread title change. This might be the biggest threat for NC since the April 2011 tornado outbreak.

FB_IMG_1555502919561.jpg
 
Sounds like some meteorologists here in alabama are worried about convection forming ahead of the line. Wbrc fox 6 put a moderate risk for tornadoes and big area of alabama is in spc enchanced area. Itll probably be mostly embedded supercells and some spins ups although spc has a hatched significant severe threat in west alabama.
 
Spc has 10% tornado risk with chance of significant tornadoes. As well as 30% wind damage with possible significant wind damage.Screenshot_20190417-073904_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top