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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

The nam at least has it weakening as it moves east


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The nam doesn't show that, its out of the forecast range. It shows it forming over west alabama and then goes out of forecast range from close range models. Still looks to hold as a derecho well into georgia, or becoming a squall line at least.
 
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Brad travis just said one model was showing more CAPE and highs in the 80s here in Alabama but yet instability is low ???
Might be, instability may be higher than what the Nam shows.
 
Verbatim the NAM is a thin, thunderless squall line with the slight possibilty of marginal damaging wind and/or weak spin up tornadoes. Very much more like a fall system than spring.
Are you talking about when it moves east? Or when its in alabama?
 
Gfs does something interesting. The Low pressure is in North Carolina compared to the Great Lakes like the fv3 has it.
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Synoptically, the low track is generally where it needs to be to produce severe weather here, only issue with getting tornadoes specifically is the shear is almost entirely speed shear w/ unidirectional southerly flow from the sfc all the way to 500mb. This leads to very long but straight hodographs, which isn't generally as favorable to either left or right moving supercells (if any are embedded within the QLCS). Unless we see profound large-scale changes, damaging winds will be the biggest threat, with marginally conducive environment to tornadoes &/or gustnadoes if we encounter a large linear segment.
 
Synoptically, the low track is generally where it needs to be to produce severe weather here, only issue with getting tornadoes specifically is the shear is almost entirely speed shear w/ unidirectional southerly flow from the sfc all the way to 500mb. This leads to very long but straight hodographs, which isn't generally as favorable to either left or right moving supercells (if any are embedded within the QLCS). Unless we see profound large-scale changes, damaging winds will be the biggest threat, with marginally conducive environment to tornadoes &/or gustnadoes if we encounter a large linear segment.
I could see a significant straight line wind event + saturated grounds = more trees down the usual over a large area type of event
 
I could see a significant straight line wind event + saturated grounds = more trees down the usual over a large area type of event
Looks like guidance wants to break the line up as it moves from the Triad eastward to 95, as usual. May just end up being a few gusty showers/heavy rain event instead of a widespread severe event here.
 
Nws of bham says this will be a similar event too sunday. And rich thomas from montgomery seems to think some supercells will form ahead of the line. The 00z euro still has a bad supercell look too it.
 
Looks like guidance wants to break the line up as it moves from the Triad eastward to 95, as usual. May just end up being a few gusty showers/heavy rain event instead of a widespread severe event here.
Maybe but I'm not sure I trust guidance with those details four days out. If the synoptics play out as it showing and that low pressure center in that location with the jet streak overhead I could see A-line making a run all the way across the state time will tell of course.

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Synoptically, the low track is generally where it needs to be to produce severe weather here, only issue with getting tornadoes specifically is the shear is almost entirely speed shear w/ unidirectional southerly flow from the sfc all the way to 500mb. This leads to very long but straight hodographs, which isn't generally as favorable to either left or right moving supercells (if any are embedded within the QLCS). Unless we see profound large-scale changes, damaging winds will be the biggest threat, with marginally conducive environment to tornadoes &/or gustnadoes if we encounter a large linear segment.
Yeah would really need secondary low formation to back sfc winds or a nw trend in the upper level features to give more of a sw flow aloft to get into a significant tor threat

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Yeah would really need secondary low formation to back sfc winds or a nw trend in the upper level features to give more of a sw flow aloft to get into a significant tor threat

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Like this?

033b161c5fdf8b23f182865193bec10d.jpg



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Like this?

033b161c5fdf8b23f182865193bec10d.jpg



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That low pressure in sc/nc is a very interesting feature. Not sure how that affect the severe weather threat. Perhaps more of a hail threat to


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