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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

ForsythSnow said:
This thing is way ahead of what the models depicted. The HRRR had this fall apart and a new line 75 miles west from. Clearly this isn't the case and it's likely 2 to 3 hours from here.
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Noticed the same. It is hauling. Good news is we may get the worst out of the way before midnight and get some decent sleep.
 
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Somebody stands to see a nasty squall line tomorrow ... or perhaps more aptly, somebodys ... :(

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Tornado warned storm in a area that's already been worked over today. Screenshot_20190418-200335_RadarScope.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
The larger-scale circulation associated w/ a mesoscale convective vortex over northern Alabama has accelerated the forward flank of this QLCS' cold pool, thus its 4-5 hours ahead of schedule.
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Once &/or if the initial line of storms are propagating so quickly s.t. that there's little backend stratiform precipitation and as the MCV separates from the bowing segment over western AL, forward propagation may slow significantly against what we've seen of late. When exactly this occurs remains to be seen. This also may not be the end for those in Alabama after this first line moves thru given how far ahead of the front this bowing segment has gone
 
Chiliphil1 said:
What does this do for the severe chances in Georgia with it now coming at midnight as opposed to 5am ?
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I don't believe much changes for the Western/Central Parts of GA it will be more of squall line wind/rain/lighting probably less chance of tornados but SW GA still has pretty measurable parameters for it being more severe
 
malak05 said:
I don't believe much changes for the Western/Central Parts of GA it will be more of squall line wind/rain/lighting probably less chance of tornados but SW GA still has pretty measurable parameters for it being more severe
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Yup ... very good call, IMHO ...
 
malak05 said:
I don't believe much changes for the Western/Central Parts of GA it will be more of squall line wind/rain/lighting probably less chance of tornados but SW GA still has pretty measurable parameters for it being more severe
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Thanks for the reply. I’m in central, pretty much dead between Atlanta and Macon. I’m in that funny spot where severe usually breaks up just to my west, I’m glad about that!

Hopefully this turns out to be a soaker only. I noticed that the SPC moved the slight risk area more to my west, now I’m squarely in a marginal whereas before I was within feet of the slight.
 
The line approaching GA per radar and models held together longer then expected but was supposed to break-up some and the main line can of build up and coming back thru same paths
 
Just nasty, QLCS bows and then areas of strong inflow associated with rotation or mesolows based off the hrrr, then the sounding still supports damaging winds, tommorows gonna be a gooooooodd day for shelfies if storms don’t manage to fire much out ahead of the main QLCS, hail isn’t a big threat with this, but with decent CAPE and WBZs around 700 hPa and good amounts of deep layer shear, there could be some hail 8D80DEF7-1BC7-4A04-A4A6-8C405F74C861.jpeg4126FBB9-BDFD-4B47-9DD7-7DE8DFE5004C.png
 
Please correct if I’m wrong... but that line is around 10 or so hours ahead of schedule.. is it outrunning the instability/volatile environment??
 
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