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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Every single model continues to break the line apart somewhere near the Triangle tomorrow, before trying to reorganize it off to the east. It looks to be attributable to an earlier cluster of convection in that vicinity.
 
It seems the mobile alabama radar is down. Bad timing for it to be down.
 
Rain Cold said:
Every single model continues to break the line apart somewhere near the Triangle tomorrow, before trying to reorganize it off to the east. It looks to be attributable to an earlier cluster of convection in that vicinity.
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This is less than ideal
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SD said:
Not to mention the large round of convection moving in from the south in the late morning and the discrete cells just ahead of the main bands. The wind profile is much more supportive of tors through early afternoon before the trough approaches and winds become more unidirectional from the S and SSW. Anything in the late morning to mid afternoon will have to be watched if it develops away from any larger area of showers and storms.

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Yeah the environment pre-frontal looks better although the lack of a cap could even lead to rapid upscale growth well ahead of the line.
 
Something to look for tomorrow in the Carolinas regarding overall convective behavior: the disintegration of the line into isolated supercells &/or individual bowing segments will be largely dependent on the speed of the QLCS' cold pool which is related to the shear vector orientation to the long axis of the line and the amount of stratiform falling in the wake of the most intense surface-based convection. Parallel deep layer shear vectors & less stratiform precipitation >>> slower forward propagation of the QLCS cold pool >>> line of storms is more likely to break up into individual cells or segments, likely increasing the tornado threat & vis versa.
 
Shaggy said:
That's been my concern as I watch the nam3k put out some convection along I95 and coastal plains as some look discrete.
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Yeah the 3k actually has some streaks of updraft helicity with those. Hopefully the early arrival of those can keep the intensity down

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Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the environment pre-frontal looks better although the lack of a cap could even lead to rapid upscale growth well ahead of the line.
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Just looking at the 3k presentation you can kind of see how the early day stuff really gets going then it almost as quickly dies. Have to think as those cells merge they eventually just choke themselves out

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NWS BMX has changed there outlook. Moved the enhanced risk east and north along the I-20 corridor
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SD said:
Just looking at the 3k presentation you can kind of see how the early day stuff really gets going then it almost as quickly dies. Have to think as those cells merge they eventually just choke themselves out

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Yeah cell merges will definitely be a concern and w/ mid-level dry air around, the rear flank downdafts will likely be pretty cold and thus not terribly favorable for tornadogenesis but still could be just favorable enough support an isolated spin-up or two before the main event arrives.
 
SD said:
This is less than ideal
f743440295a885b48666130bc65b6c4b.jpg


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Yes that is ugly. It’s hard to judge which would be worse: A cluster of storms with a couple of tornadoes or a lengthy squall line with 65 mph winds over a large area.
 
Expecting the highest tornado threat over the southern portion of alabama later were shear and instability is best. And the HRRR continues to indicate that a broken line of supercells will be over south alabama.20190418_171841.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah cell merges will definitely be a concern and w/ mid-level dry air around, the rear flank downdafts will likely be pretty cold and thus not terribly favorable for tornadogenesis but still could be just favorable enough support an isolated spin-up or two before the main event arrives.
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This seems to be raleighs thinking as well.

a plume of WAA-driven convection
streaming nwd from the Gulf Stream Atlantic will likely also be
ongoing over the NC Sandhills/Coastal Plain vicinity Fri morning.
Destabilization via advective processes may offset a lack of early
day diabatic heating owing to widespread low overcast, which may
contribute to the realization of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE there
through 15Z. Already strong, and strengthening deep layer flow would
favor some organization with this even early day activity, including
some rotating updrafts and risk of a brief/weak spin up.
 
Shaggy said:
This seems to be raleighs thinking as well.

a plume of WAA-driven convection
streaming nwd from the Gulf Stream Atlantic will likely also be
ongoing over the NC Sandhills/Coastal Plain vicinity Fri morning.
Destabilization via advective processes may offset a lack of early
day diabatic heating owing to widespread low overcast, which may
contribute to the realization of around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE there
through 15Z. Already strong, and strengthening deep layer flow would
favor some organization with this even early day activity, including
some rotating updrafts and risk of a brief/weak spin up.
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Most recent HRRR depicting this well with what looks to be some morning supercells around
 
What I find interesting is the Hrrr soundings around upstate sc. has Tornado soundings. That’s interesting because it would be around 10am-12noon. Not much day time heading. What is causing this to spin up Tornados that early if the hrrr is correct?


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Rain Cold said:
Yes that is ugly. It’s hard to judge which would be worse: A cluster of storms with a couple of tornadoes or a lengthy squall line with 65 mph winds over a large area.
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This is kind of like figuring out which is worse between a very tightly wound very strong hurricane and a not as strong but much larger one. There's only so much energy available. Is that energy's effect extreme but very localized or is it less extreme but spread out and affecting more areas?
 
Jessy89 said:
What I find interesting is the Hrrr soundings around upstate sc. has Tornado soundings. That’s interesting because it would be around 10am-12noon. Not much day time heading. What is causing this to spin up Tornados that early if the hrrr is correct?


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I think this could be with the adjustment of the trough axis ... it seems as though when this line gets near Charlotte it begins to almost pivot and go negativity tilted ... charlotte looks to be on that inflection point of pivoting motion which could be aiding into that turning of the winds and the tornado soundings
 
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