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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Tight couplet near puckettMSScreenshot_20190418-150722_RadarScope.jpg look at the donut hole to the southwestScreenshot_20190418-151012_RadarScope.jpg
 
My goodness lets hope this doesn't tighten up anymore. Its got A CC debris ball on it.Screenshot_20190418-151747_RadarScope.jpg
 
TXTornado said:
Waited up for that storm and was so underwhelmed. I am off 75, about 4 miles north of downtown and all we got was heavy rain and decent wind.
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I'm over east of Plano and the wind gust in Denton briefly had me intrigued but yeah it was pretty unimpressive. Rained more than I thought though
 
HRRR and RAP watching for east Alabama and West GA in the AM aint in clear yet parameters could be decent for strong winds and isolated tornados jusr a little north of I-20 still with the main concern is south of it
 
The 18z HRRR is just a textbook look at a mature, upshear-tilted QLCS accompanied by a strong rear-inflow jet (RIJ). Stratiform precipitation falling behind the most intense surface-based convection in addition to sublimation, melting, evaporation, & hydrometeor loading aloft all contribute to the intensity of the rear-inflow jet as well as the strength of the background flow regime. As long as there's strong deep-layer shear to tilt the downdrafts towards the rear of the surface-based convection, the rear inflow jet progressively intensifies as the QLCS ages & low-level cold pool grows stronger. Eventually, the RIJ may descend towards the surface, leading to very intense straight-line surface winds. You could probably imagine then why having a 100+ knot jet at 500 hPa overhead and high precipitable water in conjunction with mid-level dry air is a concern for straight line wind damage tomorrow here in NC because it strengthens the cold pools in the wake of the storms and thus also invigorating the RIJ and thereby increasing the wind damage potential.

download - 2019-04-18T161732.923.png

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To add to what Eric posted, the HRRR 18z run intensifies the winds at 850mb progressively and by the time it reaches Eastern NC you have winds of 80kts at the 850mb level and 70kts only 1,000 feet off the ground. Insane.

850mb .jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 18z HRRR is just a textbook look at a mature, upshear-tilted QLCS accompanied by a strong rear-inflow jet (RIJ). Stratiform precipitation falling behind the most intense surface-based convection in addition to sublimation, melting, evaporation, & hydrometeor loading aloft all contribute to the intensity of the rear-inflow jet as well as the strength of the background flow regime. As long as there's strong deep-layer shear to tilt the downdrafts towards the rear of the surface-based convection, the rear inflow jet progressively intensifies as the QLCS ages & low-level cold pool grows stronger. Eventually, the RIJ may descend towards the surface, leading to very intense straight-line surface winds. You could probably imagine then why having a 100+ knot jet at 500 hPa overhead and high precipitable water in conjunction with mid-level dry air is a concern for straight line wind damage tomorrow here in NC because it strengthens the cold pools in the wake of the storms and thus also invigorating the RIJ and thereby increasing the wind damage potential.

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Not to mention the large round of convection moving in from the south in the late morning and the discrete cells just ahead of the main bands. The wind profile is much more supportive of tors through early afternoon before the trough approaches and winds become more unidirectional from the S and SSW. Anything in the late morning to mid afternoon will have to be watched if it develops away from any larger area of showers and storms.

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SD said:
Not to mention the large round of convection moving in from the south in the late morning and the discrete cells just ahead of the main bands. The wind profile is much more supportive of tors through early afternoon before the trough approaches and winds become more unidirectional from the S and SSW. Anything in the late morning to mid afternoon will have to be watched if it develops away from any larger area of showers and storms.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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That's been my concern as I watch the nam3k put out some convection along I95 and coastal plains as some look discrete.
 
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