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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Fwiw, the vast majority of the HREF members maintain & even reintensify the squall line as it enters central NC.

In fact all of the latest runs of each HREF member (NSSL, ARW, NMMB, HRRR, & 3km NAM) keep the squall line going into central NC which reinforces the idea that the large-scale conditions are favorable-very favorable for maintenance tomorrow.

cref_ps.ma.f03100.png
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, I don't see there being nothing. I don't see there being no severe storms. I'm kind of skeptical about a widespread event through central NC, though.
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Well, if it is anything like the past few years, it'll be a very isolated event with the severe storms. How often since the April 2011 outbreak have we had severe storm and tornado watches here, and talk of widespread storms, only for the storms to end up very isolated in nature?

Of course, this could end up different. Just have to wait and see. The models do look ominous.
 
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Forecast 500mb winds of around 105 KTS on the HREF tomorrow in GSO would be a record by a very wide margin for this time of the year & the latest in the year that 500mb winds > 100 KTS were observed, a true indication of how anomalous tomorrow's large-scale setup really is.


Screen Shot 2019-04-18 at 1.42.02 PM.png

500mb_mean.ma.f04500.png
 
Line that just crossed the MS River from LA is becoming more broken in nature

Edit: And right on que, more TOR Warnings in MS
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Winds at the surface vs 850 hPa just from boundary layer overturning can be in the ballpark of 80% of the top of the boundary layer (850 hPa). Obviously ignoring convection for a second, if there's a very sharp change in wind w/ height esp at the bottom of the BL, this estimation may be fraught w/ error and it may be a good idea to also analyze the mean wind in the BL. Even this sounding could support surface wind gusts of nearly 45-50 KT or so in the absence of any convection. I could definitely see the logic behind the SPC upgrading east-central NC to a MDT risk just for wind damage given what we're dealing w/
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I was just about to ask if they ever go MDT with wind damage events or only if it's an increased Tor threat. Seems I remember usually, MDT was for tor threat but then again as you/others have pointed out this is a very anomalous system with tons of wind energy potential.
 
metwannabe said:
I was just about to ask if they ever go MDT with wind damage events or only if it's an increased Tor threat. Seems I remember usually, MDT was for tor threat but then again as you/others have pointed out this is a very anomalous system with tons of wind energy potential.
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I don't think they will go with a moderate unless it seems the tornado prospects will increase. If they do upgrade it would probably be the day of based on what current obs/heating looks like as well as convection evolution. IF we get a good deal of CAPE to work with Friday I could see them going moderate with the noon update. The HRRR and 3km NAM runs tonight into tomorrow AM will be pretty important. My biggest concern is the powerful LLJ being modeled, every single model has it and I wouldn't be surprised if we see some gusts nearing 50mph apart from convection and maybe 60mph along the coast. It's going to be a rough Friday I'm afraid.
 
I feel bad for south alabama later because the HRRR shows it even more broke up than it is now. Screenshot_20190418-143347_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190418-143407_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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