Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

[NoSnowATL]

I'm curious too see if the 00z nam continues with the trend. I think Georgia had one last year if I'm correct.

Yes and it was really wicked. You could hear the wind and rain moving in through the trees. Felt like a big downburst .


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[Myfrotho704_]

I could see this developing into some type of 2 day serial derecho type event

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Exactly what I was thinking, due to moderate-strong height falls/strong low pressure system headed for the GLs and serial derechos are much more common with that type of pattern, a progressive derecho typically happens in the warmer season (for example 2012) where you just get monster downbursts due to dry air aloft/and or inverted Vs combined with some 0-6km bulk shear, serial derechos typically have unidirectional wind profiles and stronger wind shear associated with the strong trough to the west, storms drag down strong winds combined with dry air aloft which can not only have damaging winds, but Also more tornadoes spinups

 

[Zander98al]

Exactly what I was thinking, due to moderate-strong height falls/strong low pressure system headed for the GLs and serial derechos are much more common with that type of pattern, a progressive derecho typically happens in the warmer season (for example 2012) where you just get monster downbursts due to dry air aloft/and or inverted Vs combined with some 0-6km bulk shear, serial derechos typically have unidirectional wind profiles and stronger wind shear associated with the strong trough to the west, storms drag down strong winds combined with dry air aloft which can not only have damaging winds, but Also more tornadoes spinups

Something to definitely watch seen plenty of high risks days from derecho events. Mainly northwest of the south and in the summer. But nonetheless wind damage ain't a joke especially fallen trees.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Something to definitely watch seen plenty of high risks days from derecho events. Mainly northwest of the south and in the summer. But nonetheless wind damage ain't a joke especially fallen trees.

Heck yeah, high risk days are normally issued because of widespread wind damage, derechos ain’t no joke, most of the time the shelf cloud itself looks very menacing

 

[Tarheel1]

??

 

[Zander98al]

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I could see some tornadoes from this setup. From 500mb up to the jetstream 200mb is very diffluent when it enters the southeast which aids in rising storms, SRH helicity seems decent. Instability doesn't look too impressive though.

 

[GaWx]

Never underestimate the potential danger and destruction from straight line winds/downbursts, which can be 75 mph and as much as 100+ or so in the worst cases meaning the equivalent of up to an F1 to possibly even a low end F2 tornado or cat 2 to low end cat 3 cane winds. Also, damaging straight line winds like in a squall line often cover a larger area.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Never underestimate the potential danger and destruction from straight line winds/downbursts, which can be 75 mph and as much as 100+ or so in the worst cases meaning the equivalent of up to an F1 to possibly even a low end F2 tornado or cat 2 to low end cat 3 cane winds. Also, damaging straight line winds like in a squall line often cover a larger area.

I hate downbursts, I’ve gotten the most damage from them, only problem in summertime storms, they always tap into that dry air entrainment aloft giving the downdraft extra negative buoyancy, I think it was a day last year where I got some trees knocked down from a microburst (July 21st) I might be wrong but I remember soundings that day having inverted Vs and lots of dry air entrainment combined with DCAPE

 

[Brick Tamland]

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Well, WxSouth seems pretty certain this is going to be a bad one.

And we need to change the thread title to include the 18th and 19th.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

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That was a jarring take on this system. He sees it as much worse than the last one and maxing out over Eastern AL, GA and the Carolinas.

 

[Jessy89]

That was a jarring take on this system. He sees it as much worse than the last one and maxing out over Eastern AL, GA and the Carolinas.

What exactly would maxing out mean?


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[Zander98al]

00z nam coming out now so maybe itll shed some light on this doomsday forecast by wxsouth lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

What exactly would maxing out mean?


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Phasing occurs which means a strong broad-based negatively tilted trough/ULL ushering in insane wind energy, any instability would be bad

 

[Ron Burgundy]

What exactly would maxing out mean?


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I would presume it means where the worst effects of the storm system will be, wouldn’t you?

 

[Jessy89]

I never thought I’d watch every model with severe weather like I do snow. But darn this has been a interesting week to track


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[Zander98al]

That 00z nam gives a big OOF! to south MS/LA ?. East of there doesn't show much instability which would be the big limiting factor.

 

[Zander98al]

00z nam still gives the idea of a derecho statewide for alabama. Notice its not linear it looks like a big bowing line segment.

 

[Jessy89]

00z nam still gives the idea of a derecho statewide for alabama. Notice its not linear it looks like a big bowing line segment.View attachment 19074

The nam at least has it weakening as it moves east


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[Rick]

Brad travis just said one model was showing more CAPE and highs in the 80s here in Alabama but yet instability is low ???

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

We had a nasty micro/macro burst here in southern Greenville County 10 years ago. June 2009. Tons of trees down. It changed the entire landscape of Downtown Fountain inn. We lost tons of old oak trees. That was a wild ride. I’ll never forget it