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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

New update from the SPC seems to be moving east in Alabama.
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Just like the last few setups, the warm sector in this storm will be unstable and largely uncapped which favors merges and a hot mess w/ crapvection eating up CAPE before the primary forcing arrive. Aside from vbv showing up in some CAMs just above 1km (which is suggested to have a bigger impact than vbv well above 3km), there's certainly several other wrinkles in this forecast that may easily preclude much in the way of discrete, supercelluar modes &/or tornadoes here in NC. Straight line wind damage is likely going to steal the show here anyway
 
At this point I’d take it, bring on the VBV, I don’t want any chance at tornadoes, it looks like eastern NC has a better shot at more discrete convection and a better chance at more insulation owing to more CAPE

Webberweather53 said:
Just like the last few setups, the warm sector in this storm will be unstable and largely uncapped which favors merges and a hot mess w/ crapvection eating up CAPE before the primary forcing arrive. Aside from vbv showing up in some CAMs just above 1km (which is suggested to have a bigger impact than vbv well above 3km), there's certainly several other wrinkles in this forecast that may easily preclude much in the way of discrete, supercelluar modes &/or tornadoes here in NC. Straight line wind damage is likely going to steal the show here anyway
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TXTornado said:
cloudy in Dallas. HRRR moves the lone supercell west instead of over the metro, but spawns another one to our SE. Not going to chase given both are a drive.
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Yeah I'm not too impressed here either

Cap still looks pretty strong on the 18z sounding too
 
Zander98al said:
Still a ripe environment if a storm can isolate itself though. But after the last event i see what you mean.
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Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I think EHI 1KM is better 25BC08BA-3605-4BDE-B276-B4F17C63A7C2.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I
Myfrotho704_ said:
Yeah, also lapse rates look very poor with this event, although this sounding shows not much of any VBV, some models do show VBV for parts of areas in the hatched part of the risk tommorow, with no CAP, this argues for very messy storm modes and then congealing into a lower topped QLCS capable of a few tornadoes, I don’t think much tornadoes tommorow, but a few tornadoes seem possible, and that small outside chance of a stronger one, especially with some wind from the SE at the SFC, the curvature on this hodo tho is pretty impressive, back to the STP argument I think EHI 1KM is better View attachment 19124
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Looks to be more of a damaging wind threat tomorrow. Ehi at 1km for determining the potential of strong tornadoes?
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This is the strongest run yet of the 12km NAM for the LLJ over Eastern NC. This sounding near Jacksonville, NC is showing 70kt winds only 1,000 feet above the surface as a squall line moves through.

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I really dont know how to feel about this event. I have been pretty skeptical of it doing much of anything besides wind threat, but then seeing the long range HRRR makes you think twice. I'm still very skeptical, but would still recommend to be weather aware.
 
I see early morning convection turning this thing into a mess for the areas tomorrow. I havent really payed attention for the Carolinas.
 
Wbrc fox 6 in birmingham have damaging winds at the highest threat level they can go for tommorow. ?
 
NWS of Bham says any uptick in instability will ramp up tornado potential. In there new discussion.
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TXTornado said:
Is it that the wind field are just ripping them apart?
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I just looked at the mesoanalysis and there actually in a area with some lacking mid level lapses (6.5), there about to head into a area with better mid level lapse rates but horrid low level lapse rates, I know that sfc-6km shear is strong but low level shear is not impressive, which might be playing a role, and plus soundings from these areas had VBV
 
Where can I download a radar that shows rotation?


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I don’t agree with the strong tornado potential the SPC mentions of tommorow
1. Presence of VBV
2. Critical angles aren’t that impressive
3. Lack of Capping inversion/EML
4. Lots of cloud cover likely
Tornadoes tommorow are possible, but I just don’t see strong ones, maybe more in the QLCS, there’s some backing sfc winds and all, but VBV/lack of a CAP is gonna basically turn these storms into smeared cake, lol, damaging winds appears way more likely with this look, high PWAT means heavy precip that will drag down gusty winds from that llvl jet, especially with the QLCS that develops, while there may be some hail, hail growth zones aren’t too impressive, moist soundings/high PWAT owing to water loading, higher freezing levels/WBZ levels F5E6D2A7-5CC4-4C9E-9BC2-27DEAB3F00E0.jpeg
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I don’t agree with the strong tornado potential the SPC mentions of tommorow
1. Presence of VBV
2. Critical angles aren’t that impressive
3. Lack of Capping inversion/EML
4. Lots of cloud cover likely
Tornadoes tommorow are possible, but I just don’t see strong ones, maybe more in the QLCS, there’s some backing sfc winds and all, but VBV/lack of a CAP is gonna basically turn these storms into smeared cake, lol, damaging winds appears way more likely with this look, high PWAT means heavy precip that will drag down gusty winds from that llvl jet, especially with the QLCS that develops, while there may be some hail, hail growth zones aren’t too impressive, moist soundings/high PWAT owing to water loading, higher freezing levels/WBZ levels View attachment 19135
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I'm afraid itll become a quick spin up event like the last event. So far 13 tornadoes have been reported and counting in alabama from that event. Because shear is very high but messy storm mode.
 
Brent said:
yeah I was using pykl3 but they stopped supporting it so I switched over to radarscope, its worth it imo
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I remember pykl3 i had that like 6 or 7 years ago seems like a eternity then i found radarscope which i liked better.
 
I spy a left split supercell in Oklahoma, with anticyclonic rotation with it and large hail
 
Jp dice said he'd be surprised if we didn't have widespread damaging winds across alabama tomorrow. On his livestream.
 
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