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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

Doesn't sound too bad according to spc they saying a tornado cannot be ruled out on wed
 
It looks potentially pretty nasty again for places like Texas/Louisiana/Mississippi/westward. Not as bad east of there as of now but still potential for something.

For some context (long range NAM but still):

1555350944992.png
 
Not as many tornado soundings for this one. However a squall line with wind and rain seems more likely across Georgia and Carolinas


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Have to watch how the secondary low develops. Nam doesn't look impressive, but synoptically this event is still eye catching. Too far away from the event too know the true mesoscale features.
 
Just seems mostly might get a damaging wind looks to be a low end event now nws Huntsville says tornado cannot be ruled out
 
0c6b6658d9f01134b6b9d2163e77cdec.jpg


To me the Tornado chance isn’t zero but it’s low. But I do think this will be a nasty squall line with straight line winds and heavy rain


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You know what. 12km 18z nam makes this system look like a derecho will hit alabama which is pretty significant itself. I don't know forecast parameters on derecho but usually its bowed out and that's what the nam shows.any input guys i don't know much about forecasting of derechos. Screenshot_20190415-172322_Samsung Internet.jpg
32km nam below also has it.nam_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
 
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Rain Cold said:
I wouldn’t start worrying too much about derechos quite yet. However, a lengthy line of storms with bowing segments seems likely to occur.
Click to expand...
This has potential to be a big flash flood threat in our neck of the woods

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