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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

One thing to watch is the trough orientation. You dont need a bombing low with a super strong trough to get a high risk day as last months setup that spawned the Lee county tornado and others. A weaker low amplitude wave that is oriented correctly will do the trick. The 18z GFS is still screaming to watch this period.
 
Definitely has trended away from the broad based trough to a sharper phased trough. Not looking like the possible tornado outbreak it was at one time.
 
While it appears reasonably certain that severe-weather risk will
increase across the central -- and later the eastern -- U.S. as this
system advances, differences evident at this time suggest
predictability issues, and thus no areas of heightened severe
potential will be delineated at this time.
Click to expand...
Here's what the SPC said this morning.
 
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