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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
I just got to my 9am class so can’t post them for awhile, but if you go to weather.us it has free maps you can check out
tennessee storm
Member
12zgfs holds serve on a potential significant severe outbreak mid next week ... ark tn ms ala....
Snowflowxxl
Member
GA and Carolinas also get hit hard on Thursday
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Pretty close to the dates of the tornado outbreak in 2011. Something about April and bad things happening.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tornado_outbreak_of_April_14–16,_2011
Snowflowxxl
Member
12z EURO looks menacing with very defined supercell streaks in the precip.
One thing to watch is the trough orientation. You dont need a bombing low with a super strong trough to get a high risk day as last months setup that spawned the Lee county tornado and others. A weaker low amplitude wave that is oriented correctly will do the trick. The 18z GFS is still screaming to watch this period.
Snowflowxxl
Member
0z GFS continues the theme. Big severe potential for next WED/THUR
Yep, still a good bit higher ceiling than this weekend system as well.
Snowflowxxl
Member
Got Cape?
tennessee storm
Member
Wow .. plenty fuel there.. think last couple runs are trending cape values further north for this one ... let 12zgfs finish
Snowflowxxl
Member
Yea the 12z GFS is a likely multi-day outbreak
That’s a lot of CAPE.
tennessee storm
Member
Wow. 12z euro is a dangerous setup next week widespread outbreak
Yep, I haven’t looked at CAPE parameters but based off H5 on the euro this would probably be a multi-day severe wx outbreak
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TXTornado
Member
Definitely has trended away from the broad based trough to a sharper phased trough. Not looking like the possible tornado outbreak it was at one time.
tennessee storm
Member
Course that’s still has to be worked out... but models are converging on a high ceiling threat of a outbreak is concerning
Here's what the SPC said this morning.
tennessee storm
Member
12z gfs still looks quite nasty for midweek nextweek....