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Severe Severe weather threat April 17-19

My school just called telling all students to take shelter for a tornado warning, yet Atlanta is not even in the polygon. Guess they don’t know that a polygon doesn’t mean all of the County
 
My daughter just called from Demorest. Scared. Any details on the warning for them? Man.....:((((
 
From Rah NWS, this is serious....

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML CAPE), dangerous shear (Bulk: 45 to 55kts; SFC -> 1km: 20 - 30kts) and helicity values, and near record PWat values (1.6 inches +). In terms of limiting factors, few exist, other than the uncertainty of just how much surface heating will be allowed throughout the day, however, with such a strong WAA regime in place, the atmosphere should be allowed to destabilize pretty efficiently without many breaks in the sunshine. The environment looks prime for a very active and potentially destructive weather day across the Carolinas.

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Poimen said:
This just looks nasty in the Triad: View attachment 19222
Click to expand...
Yep and I still have concerns with those cells down east ahead of the main event. I'm very concerned someone could deal with a tornadic cell early only to follow up later with that QLCS with 70+ mph winds. What a day ahead of us

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Well I woke up to intense lightning and rain. My den is ground level and water was coming through the freaking north wall covering the laminate flooring. My wife began to clean that up and I was outside in ankle deep water, in the lightning and pouring rain with a shovel trying to get the water to run off. First time this has ever happened in 17 years of living here. Oh yea roof was leaking in the kitchen so I have some roof damage. Did not expect this much rain so quickly.
 
NoSnowJoe said:
Well I woke up to intense lightning and rain. My den is ground level and water was coming through the freaking north wall covering the laminate flooring. My wife began to clean that up and I was outside in ankle deep water, in the lightning and pouring rain with a shovel trying to get the water to run off. First time this has ever happened in 17 years of living here. Oh yea roof was leaking in the kitchen so I have some roof damage. Did not expect this much rain so quickly.
Click to expand...
Dang sorry to hear that, heckuva way to start the day.

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Webberweather53 said:
This is definitely one of the most favorable large-scale environmental soundings you'll ever see in central NC for straight line wind damage and is definitely capable of support sfc wind gusts in excess of 75 mph (as noted by SPC).


View attachment 19221
Click to expand...

And those discrete cells in front of the line could be the ones to produce quite a few tornadoes if they can isolate themselves. We’d better hope the hrrr projections of 2-3k cape are wrong... bc things will be even worse if it’s right with this dynamic setup.
 
Already had multiple severe thunderstorm warnings and tornado warnings east and northeast of Atlanta during what is normally the least active point in the day for severe weather. Not a good sign for those farther to the east.

Stay safe today everyone!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Virtually all of central NC is under a moderate risk of severe weather for the first time since Feb 2016. Hopefully people are taking this one seriously

View attachment 19219
Click to expand...
Webberweather53 said:
This is definitely one of the most favorable large-scale environmental soundings you'll ever see in central NC for straight line wind damage and is definitely capable of support sfc wind gusts in excess of 75 mph (as noted by SPC).


View attachment 19221
Click to expand...
metwannabe said:
From Rah NWS, this is serious....

Environmental conditions ahead of the front look dangerous to say the least, with efficient enough instability (1000 - 1500 J/KG ML CAPE), dangerous shear (Bulk: 45 to 55kts; SFC -> 1km: 20 - 30kts) and helicity values, and near record PWat values (1.6 inches +). In terms of limiting factors, few exist, other than the uncertainty of just how much surface heating will be allowed throughout the day, however, with such a strong WAA regime in place, the atmosphere should be allowed to destabilize pretty efficiently without many breaks in the sunshine. The environment looks prime for a very active and potentially destructive weather day across the Carolinas.

Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

This looks and sounds really bad. I was hoping the cloud cover this morning would limit the instability, but it doesn't sound like that will happen. This sounds like the biggest threat for widespread severe weather here since the April 2011 outbreak. This may be a Good Friday to remember for all the wrong reasons.
 
Update from the SPC.

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms with considerable potential for producing
damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are likely across much of
the southern through mid Atlantic Coast region, particularly across
the Carolinas into southern/central Virginia this afternoon and
evening.

...Coastal Southeast to Mid-Atlantic States...
Few changes to ongoing Moderate/Enhanced Risk Outlook with the 13Z
update.

An upper-level trough, which features a cyclonically curved strong
polar jet within its base, is centered along the lower/middle
Mississippi River Valley and Middle Gulf Coast early this morning.
This upper trough will continue to gradually deepen over the
Tennessee Valley, with the aforementioned polar jet ejecting
northeastward, largely atop an east/northeastward-advancing cold
front. A significant deep-layer strengthening of southerly winds
above 1 km AGL will occur during the day, highlighted by as much as
90 kt/70 kt at 500 mb/700 mb, respectively, particularly across
Georgia into the Carolinas and southern Virginia.

Semi-continuous bands of convection/squall line are ongoing from
northern Florida into Georgia and the western Carolinas early this
morning as of 13Z. Pockets of considerable cloud cover precedes this
convection (and the cold front itself), which casts some uncertainty
regarding the overall degree of destabilization and timing of
general intensification, although steady low-level moistening and
robust deep-layer/low-level winds will be compensatory factors.
Guidance generally remains suggestive that an influx of boundary
layer moisture across the Carolina coastal plain into the Piedmont
may be accompanied by moderate boundary layer destabilization
(including CAPE up to 1500 J/kg).

The aforementioned bands of convection should gradually increase in
intensity across Georgia and the upstate Carolinas through late
morning/early afternoon, with a semi-broken linearly prevalent
convective mode expected. The strengthening deep-layer/low-level
winds will likely yield further upscale growth and acceleration of
convection across the Carolinas into southern Virginia through peak
heating. Severe convective gusts may become fairly widespread. While
damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with the
northeastward and eastward advancing line of storms, a few embedded
tornadoes may also be possible. Preceding the linearly prevalent
convection, other showers/thunderstorms coincident with the
warm/moist conveyor may also deepen and become increasingly rooted
within the destabilizing boundary layer this afternoon across the
Piedmont and coastal plain of the Carolinas into southern Virginia.
These storms could materialize in a more discrete convective mode,
at least initially conducive for supercells with some tornado risk
aside from damaging winds.

day1otlk_1300.gif
 
Gust reported just over 60mph in st. Marks south of Tallahassee. Lines up well with HRRR.

This line is the line that will come and impact NC later today. D9434F90-C7B9-42E2-BB60-5836DC7F978F.png
 
Clouds and light showers in the eastern Midlands of SC through the Pee Dee this morning. Hopefully that will help keep the instability down some. Once the showers push out shortly hopefully the sun won't come out to juice it up.
 
Well, I guess I turned out to be wrong yesterday. I’m still not certain how much instability we’ll have to work with. May not matter much. Anyway, a big batch of showers are moving in from the south now. Wonder if that will affect anything for later?
 
I'm looking at some iffy stuff coming up 85 towards Lavonia? Hoping I don't have to go back to neighbors that were smart enough to build a basement.....?
 
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