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Pattern November 2023

I've been told on this very site that drought doesn't happen and it always rains.
I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
 
I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
We need rain, less then 10in of rain in the last 4 months is sad.
 
I'm in that deep red in North GVL county in upstate SC.
I've went from excessive flooding in a LA Nina for 2 years.
To no rain at all in almost 2 months in an EL Nino.
Many driving factors in weather.
I just hope we all get some much needed rain soon.
Several fronts with nice steady soaking rains.
Exactly the same here in SW Rutherford county. Flooding the last 2 years and yard soaking wet for months at a time to no rain at all the last 2 months. Dusty bone dry everywhere around these parts.
 
Watch it do this, rinse/repeat of last year. I'm just kidding, sorta...being pessimistic.

View attachment 137830
It actually DOES do that! If you run it out to 360, which is dangerous, I know, it builds a rex block over the east and sends the center of the trough in to central California! Hello sky resorts! 2023 says to 2022, hold my beer!
 
yep, so typical of the last few year's.
Yep
gfs_asnow_us_65.png
 
12z GFS surface temps at midday the day before Thanksgiving:
View attachment 137829

Just looking at the temps shows a fun setup. CAD in the SE and really strong cold front pushing into the heartland of the US.

Agreed, for whatever tropical forcing reason, the western trough has been prediminate the last several years. I expect that to continue until it stops.
At least we would get a wedge, but the real fun would remain out West. And you are correct, this has been the ongoing pattern for years now, the East just can't get any true cold, especially not sustained. One front for a few days last Dec and one front in Jan of 2018 don't change that reality. As RC has said, there just doesn't seem to to be any pattern that, regardless of ENSO, PDO, PNA, etc, that will yield real winter weather in the East anymore, and especially our area. We'll see what happens this winter but there is no real reason to expect anything different.
 
I thought this was going to flip this year, due to El Nino?

Yeah, it may. But for reasons, ninos act like Nina's due to the -IOD, or the AAM, or other acronym that causes western troughs and the SE ridge. To me it's something bigger than a modulating seasonal variable that causes the western trough prevalence lately, but I don't know what it is.
 
Hit 83 at RDU, tying the record high from 2005.
GSP was 84
CLT was 83
AVL was 82

All of them daily records. GSP and CLT only 2 degrees off the monthly record and AVL only one off. This is crazy warm and I've had enough of these 80s the last couple of weeks. Ready for consistent fall please!
 
GSP was 84
CLT was 83
AVL was 82

All of them daily records. GSP and CLT only 2 degrees off the monthly record and AVL only one off. This is crazy warm and I've had enough of these 80s the last couple of weeks. Ready for consistent fall please!
It looks like the roller coaster is going to continue. Two weeks ago we had record warmth. Last week was well below average for most of the week. We have had record warmth this week, and next week looks fairly cool though not as much as we saw last week. Thanksgiving is looking like it at least starts fairly mild right now.
 
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